2016 WAS A GREAT YEAR FOR DIY RETAIL

The holiday season is upon us, and how DIY retail will fare remains to be seen, but 2016 by most accounts has been a great year for DIY retail. The North American Retail Hardware Association (NRHA) is estimating industry growth for 2016 to end at 5.8%. The Home Improvement Research Institute (HIRI) is estimating a little higher, at 6%. The US Census Bureau reports home improvement industry sales through September at 6.7% growth over 2015.

Building materials and home improvement retail sales are 3 to 1 higher than overall retail sales increases for this year.

What has led to the success, and which areas in the DIY space have seen the best results?

Most economists agree that the renewed housing market seen in 2016 will continue into 2017. Add to that higher consumer confidence rates, multi-family housing construction has led to higher sales at home centers and lumber dealers. Remodeling projects and big-ticket purchases are stronger. Big ticket items, such as appliances, have seen the biggest sales uptick in the segment.

Accelerated Analytics DIY customers, using their retailer POS data to analyze sales and inventory, are experiencing the same trends. Across the Accelerated Analytics customer index, June and July showed poor results, followed by an improving August and strong September. 20% of Accelerated Analytics customers’ sales tickets are big ticket items, over $900 per sale. These items were identified as appliances and other expensive items, along with supporting/supplemental products.

The NHRA is predicting 2017 sales to continue this trend and that home improvement product sales should continue to outpace overall retail sales in 2017, anticipating DIY industry growth in the range of 5%.

For more industry stats and observations, download the Accelerated Analytics Retail Industry Briefing Book, which is a monthly publication of key retail industry trends, published to over 7,000 subscribers per month.

Sources: Accelerated Analytics, Hardwareretailing.com

HOME DEPOT SEES BIG GAINS IN 3RD QUARTER GOING INTO HOLIDAY SALES

The Home Depot posted one of the biggest retail jumps post-Halloween among US retailers, seeing online visits increase 17.4% and daily visits to HomeDepot.com over 20 million in the first week of November. The Home Depot is also poised to increase mobile traffic to 53% over the 2015 holiday season.

Online sales increased 17% during the third quarter and US same-store comps grew 5.9%. Significantly, over 40% of online orders placed were items picked up in the store, driving their omnichannel success.

For the first 9 months of the year, sales were $72.39 billion, up 7.2% from last year. The Home Depot attributes the growth to an increase in the number of people who made purchases in its stores and the amount of spend per customer transaction. The company expects its 2016 year to end with increases of 6.3%.

One thing to watch as the holiday season continues – last year Q4 numbers were very high due to prolonged warm weather, up 8.9% over 2014, making it harder for Home Depot to beat same store sales this year.

Sources: Internet Retailer, CNBC

HOUSING GAINS AND MILD WEATHER KEEP HOME DEPOT GOING STRONG

The Home Depot’s stock opened at a record-high level today, after announcing they topped first quarter expectations. Mild weather and a strong housing rebound are attributed to their successful first quarter. Revenue increased to $22.76 billion from $20.89 billion. Same store year over year sales rose 6.5% overall,up 7.4% in US stores.

Chairman and CEO Craig Menear said the company saw “week to week demand spikes caused by weather variability”. Home Depot originally forecasted 2016 earnings of $6.12 to $6.18 per share, with revenue predicted to increase 5.1-6% and same store sales to rise 3.7-4.5%. With its positive first quarter, Home Depot now predicts 2016 earnings of $6.27, sales to rise 6.3% and same store sales to rise 4.9%.

Having cited a strong housing rebound as another reason for a strong first quarter, steady growth for the housing market looks like it will continue. The National Association of Home Builders reported continued strong sentiment in May. Low mortgage rates are fueling demand that have boosted expectations for home sales in the next six months to the highest level of the year. More housing data is due out later this week, including housing starts and existing home sales.

Source: US News & World Report, Wall S. Journal

APRIL RETAIL SALES REBOUND. WILL RETAILER STOCKS RECOVER?

Wall Street analysts are calling last week “Retail Wreck” due to numerous retailers’ news of poor sales, profits and future outlook on consumer spending. April retail sales came in higher than expected with a positive 1.3% gain, the highest gain in a year. Will strong sales in the first month of the second quarter help with a stock rebound for retailers?

Last week’s poor results were reported by many retailers, including Macy’s, Kohl’s and Nordstrom’s. Department stores are also responding to the strong online sales versus in-store that was reported, with online sales soaring 10.2% over last year. They are struggling with putting inventory in the right place to meet their increasingly complicated inventory and distribution demands.

Investors are waiting for home-improvement results this week from Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target and Wal-Mart to try to determine if the profit misses in the retail space is a problem just for department stores and apparel makers, or if it is a broader problem ahead for the consumer-driven US economy.

See the Accelerated Analytics’ blog from last week, reporting on the stock decreases across several retailers and apparel manufacturers: http://www.acceleratedanalytics.com/blog/2016/5/12/retail-stock-market-was-a-bear-yesterday-dropping-to-worst-l.html and continue to monitor our blog http://www.acceleratedanalytics.com/blog/ page this week as additional retailers report on Q1 results.

Sources: The Wall Street Journal, USA Today

RETAIL STOCK MARKET WAS A BEAR YESTERDAY, DROPPING TO WORST LEVELS SINCE 2011

There were stock declines all over the retail spectrum yesterday, as consumers spend less than expected and shift spending from traditional department stores and retailers to nontraditional online retailers. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF closed down 4.44%, the worst since August 18, 2011 and down 15% over the last 12 months.

Macy’s is getting the most news of the day, closing down 15.2%. This caused CEO Terry Lundgren to lower its full-year forecast. Quarterly earnings for Macy’s exceeded expectations, but revenue came in below estimates.

April retail sales will be announced on Friday morning, and analysts are waiting to see what stock impact these results will have.

Other retailers with dropped stock levels yesterday include Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Nike, Fossil, and Disney, who dropped 4.04%, its worst day since January 15.

Source: CNBC, Wall St Journal

2015 ONLINE RETAIL SALES GREW IN SURPRISING CATEGORY

For the first time in a decade, online sales spending on apparel and accessories surpassed computer hardware sales in 2015. For the year, clothing generated $51.5 billion in online sales, over the $51.1 billion spent on personal computers and tablets, which held the highest sales until now. In Q4 2015, apparel and accessories sold $17.2 billion.

Retailers’ efforts to make it easier to shop online and return with less risk is a big factor. Shoppers are getting more comfortable with the fact that if a pair of pants does not fit right or a blouse is a different color than they expected, it can be returned with little hassle and little to no cost. Online shopping of apparel and accessories also grew due to the fact that, unlike a laptop or tablet purchase, these products do not require a lot of research by the consumer before they buy, and are easy to buy with an image on a small mobile screen.  E-retail sales of the apparel and accessories industry is expected to continue to grow, with total online sales estimated to grow up to $434 billion by 2017. 

Source: Internet Retailer

ULTA SHOWS HOW ATTRACTIVE THE BEAUTY MARKET CAN BE

Ulta Salon, a specialty beauty retailer, is expanding its store count across the U.S. while reporting a 12.5% same-store sales increase during the fourth quarter. There were several factors attributed to their performance. Ulta’s gross margins got a lift by their shift from coupons to more targeted offers. They also managed to boost traffic into the stores. They added 100 new stores in 2015, seeing net revenues increase 21% to reach $1.27 billion. With its plans to add 100 more stores in 2016, taking them to over 1,000 stores total, it will build on its success in small markets and downtown/urban locations.

The beauty segment is attractive to department store retailers, because shoppers make frequent repeat visits when they run out of a certain product. Several retailers, such as Kohl’s and Sephora-Inside-JC Penney’s, have specific plans to expand their beauty departments.

Accelerated Analytics’ has a broad base of beauty vendor customers, such as L’Oreal, LVMH, Parlux Fragrances, Anastasia Beverly Hills, Chanel, Coty, Estee Lauder and more. Learn about our beauty industry reporting solutions at http://www.acceleratedanalytics.com/beauty/

Source: CNBC

MACY’S ANNOUNCES Q4 SALES DECLINED 5.2%; LOOKS FORWARD to 2016 EXPANSION

For the period ending January 30, 2016, Macy’s total sales declined 5.2% to $8.87 billion. Same-store sales fell 4.3%, slightly less than the 4.7% decrease analysts were expecting. Macy’s did announce it had another year of double-digit growth in its online business, attributed to high increases in mobile traffic and conversions.  In looking back on the year, chairman and CEO, Terry J. Lundgren, pointed out many expansion initiatives. “We expanded our online capacity with a new state-of-the-art fulfillment center in Tulsa, Oklahoma,” he said. “We announced licensed department arrangements with companies including LensCrafters, Men’s Wearhouse and Best Buy to add new categories to the Macy’s store assortment. We completed the acquisition of Bluemercury, which added capabilities to our signature beauty business. We developed and launched Macy’s Backstage, which will be piloted as an in-store concept this spring. And we began initial testing of online selling in China in a new joint venture with a Hong Kong-based partner.” Macy’s has $400 million of planned cost savings and will have more conservative inventory planning in 2016 to improve its operating margins. It does expect to see a 1% comp-stores decline in 2016.

Source: Chain Store Age

WARM WEATHER HELPS HOME DEPOT SALES RISE ALMOST 10% IN 4TH QUARTER, AS HOME PRICES INCREASE AND DEMAND FOR NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION STARTS 2016 WITH SLOW GROWTH

The Home Depot’s fourth-quarter sales included an 8.9% sales increase in US stores that have been open for at least one year. This is despite the challenges facing the rest of the retail industry. Sales were strong the entire quarter, but warm weather in December brought in a sales spike – Home Depot attributes $100 million in sales growth to the milder weather. High sales were seen for power washers and pressure-treated lumber by homeowners building decks.

Home prices also rose in December, showing the strongest gains since July 2014. The Home Price Index showed a rise of 5.2% in the 12 months ending in December, versus a 5.2% in November. The national median sale price for a home in December was $213,800, 8.2% from the previous year. There is a limited inventory of homes for sale, and demand for new homes is likely to drive more new construction and help keep a ceiling on the rising home prices, although January 2016 was a slow start for new home construction for the year.

Accelerated Analytics helps Home Depot vendors, such as WM Barr, Hillman Group, Alexandria Molding, and CPG Building Products to manage their sales and inventory data to drive results. Our vendors use our analytical measures, such as sell through, inventory shortages, out of stocks, weeks of supply and consumer purchasing trends, to take quick actions to ensure they are optimizing inventory and growing sales.

Source: Wall St. Journal

NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION DROPS AGAIN WITH SLOW START IN 2016 – WILL HOME DEPOT EARNINGS BE AFFECTED?

Showing the lowest rate since October, new housing starts fell 3.8% in January from a month earlier. U.S. home builders are reporting a positive outlook as spring approaches, citing solid fundamentals for housing demand, such as job gains and low mortgage rates. Demand for housing has been strong over the past year but growth has been slow, with housing starts just 1.8% higher than January 2015.

Home builders are reporting shortages of land and labor, leading to project delays and higher construction prices, which lowers demand for new homes. However, new home sales in December were up 9.9% from a year earlier. “The weak showing in construction activity is broadly consistent with the recent souring in home builders’ sentiment, and when combined with the downdrift in permit approvals it suggests some slowdown in the months ahead,” said Millan Mulraine, economist at TD Securities USA, in a note to clients.

The Home Depot performed very well in 2015, giving investors better returns than competitor Lowe’s. The Home Depot opened 2016 with a large pullback due to fears about the general economy and the housing market in particular. An anticipated rise in mortgage rates has not happened and Home Depot is gearing up for spring, its busiest period of the year. The company will hire more than 80,000 workers for its 2,000 stores and 75 distribution facilities. The Home Depot’s domestic business has kept it in the lead, but with Lowe’s announcement of its acquisition of Canadian home-improvement chain Rona, international expansion could be important to future growth.

Source: WSJ

LOWE’S ANNOUNCES Q2 EARNINGS RESULTS ARE UP, FALLING JUST SHORT OF ANALYSTS EXPECTATIONS

Lowe’s reported an 8.4% increase in profit for Q2 2015, with net earnings of $1.3 billion and $1.20 a share. This up from last year’s Q2 earnings of $1.04 billion and $1.04 per share. Analysts were expecting results of $1.24 per share.

The home improvement retailer’s net sales rose 4.5%, which was in line with expectations. Same store sales at stores open at least a year were up 4.3%.

“We posted solid results for the quarter and were able to capitalize on big-ticket market share opportunities with strong growth in categories like appliances and outdoor power equipment,” Lowe's CEO Robert Niblock said in a statement.

As of July 31, 2015, Lowe's operated 1,846 home improvement and hardware stores in the United States, Canada and Mexico representing 201.4 million square feet of retail selling space.

For fiscal year 2015, Lowe’s expects to add 15 to 20 new home improvement and hardware stores, and expects total sales to increase 4.5% to 5%.

Sources: USA Today, MarketWatch

US CONSUMER SPENDING IN SECOND QUARTER INCREASES AND MAY HELP THIRD QUARTER

US economic growth in second quarter 2015 saw a 2.3% increase in gross domestic product over first quarter. This gain was boosted by 2.9% growth in consumer spending.  Also, consumer personal savings rate went down to 4/8% from 5.2%, showing that consumers are starting to open their wallets and start spending again. 

Business investment for the period contracted and inventories remained flat. However, consumers and transportation companies are benefitting from lower oil prices. A growth in consumer spending in the third quarter will get more product flowing through supply chains.

Source: Wall Street Journal

LOWE’S COMPANY SHARES RAISED TO OUTPERFORM

With an improvement in housing and overall economic activity in Southeastern states, Lowe’s is expected to witness accelerating sales and potentially narrow its comp store sales with Home Depot in the region. A report this week forecasts a 4% growth at Lowe’s following disappointing Q1 2015 sales of $14.1 billion versus $14.26 billion. However, Lowe’s Companies’ revenue was up 5.4% compared to Q1 2014.

Several equities research analysts issued positive reports for Lowe’s stock, setting buy ratings over $80 per share. Experts expect Lowe's to complete the year with $3.94 EPS. 

Source: The Legacy

KOHL’S, DILLARD’S AND NORDSTROM’S REPORT ON Q1 RESULTS – NORDSTROM REPORTS HIGH LOYALTY PROGRAM SUCCESS

Kohl’s, Dillard’s and Nordstrom’s released Q1 sales results yesterday, on the heels of announcements of Q1 losses from JC Penney and Macy’s.

Despite launching a loyalty program and expanding advertising, Kohl’s reported weak consumer spending, but did report a gain. Kohl’s reported a profit of $127 million, up slightly from $125 million a year earlier. Sales grew 1.3% to $4.2 billion. Kohl’s operated 1,164 stores this year versus 1,160 last year. Kevin Mansell, Kohl's chairman, chief executive officer and president, said: "Sales were modestly below our original expectations for the quarter, but accelerated in the March/April combined period after a weak February. We are very pleased with our earnings results, with a more balanced promotional calendar driving merchandise margin combined with strong expense control."

Dillard’s reported Q1 sales at $109.6 million compared to $111.7 million prior year. Same store sales decreased 1%. Net sales were $1.574 billion, up 1.5% from last year. Sales were strongest in junior’s and children’s apparel, followed by shoes and ladies’ apparel. Sales were weak in the home and furniture category. The company noted that sales in Texas were below company average for Q1. "We are disappointed with our first quarter performance. Our 1% sales decline hampered our ability to leverage operating expenses and to drive net income growth," said Chief Executive William Dillard. "Although inventory is higher than we would like, we believe the levels are manageable."

Nordstrom’s also reported a drop in earnings for Q1. It reported a profit of $128 million, down from $140 million a year ago. However, Nordstrom.com and NordstromRack.com had a combined 70% increase in sales. Net sales increased 9.8% and same store sale increased 4%. Nordstrom’s loyalty program contributed greatly to its results. Members shopped 3 times more frequently and spend 4 times more on average than non-members. With 4.4 million members, sales from members increased 11% in the first quarter and represented 38% of sales.

Source: Retailing Today

BELK INC EXPLORING POSSIBLE SALE OR MERGER

Belk Inc., founded in 1888 by William Henry Belk and in the third generation of Belk family leadership, has hired Goldman Sachs to help it evaluate strategic alternatives, including a potential sale. Belk is the largest family owned department store chain in the US, valued at as much as $4 billion.

In fiscal year 2014, ending January 31, 2015, Belk posted net sales of $4.1 billion, up 1.8% compared to the previous year. After Reuters reported on the potential sale, Belk issued a statement that it had hired Goldman Sachs to help them explore all options and expect to conclude its analysis in the next several months.

US consumer spending has been slow moving this year despite lower gas prices, due to weather conditions and consumers’ desire to save. This has affected department store sales, prompting chains to resort to smaller store models and aggressive discounting.

The last major acquisition in the department store sector was Canadian chain Hudson’s Bay Co, owner of the Lord & Taylor chain, which acquired Saks in 2013 for $2.9 billion. Major department stores like Macy’s and Nordstrom are expected to be contacted by Belk to solicit their interest in a deal. Neither Goldman Sachs, Macy’s nor Nordstrom responded to requests for comment.

Belk operates 297 stores in the southern US and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Source: Reuters.com

BELK STORES REPORTS FISCAL YEAR RESULTS AND STRATEGIC INITIATIVES

Belk, with 297 stores in 16 Southern states, announced several key strategic initiatives for this year, to include increasing their store count, remodeling other stores and improving its e-commerce fulfillment center in Jonesville, S.C.

After reporting a holiday season sales increase of 5.2%, Belk finished its fiscal year on January 31 down 7.8% in net income to $146.1 million versus $158.5 million last year. “Despite challenges early in the year, we ended FY15 with strong holiday sales and are pleased to report our fifth consecutive year of positive comparable store sales,” CEO Tim Belk said. “Although our annual earnings continue to be impacted by additional expense associated with key strategic initiatives, fourth quarter net income rose 8.3 percent on a sales increase of 5%. We are encouraged by the recent trends and believe we are well positioned for the year ahead.”

Net sales totaled $4.11 billion, up 1.8% from $4.04 billion the year before. Same store sales climbed 1.5% and saw the highest growth rate in activewear, ladies contemporary, resort and bridge fashions. Ladies suits, men’s sportswear and juniors.

Source: Retailing Today

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX HIGHER IN FEBRUARY

After sinking 0.7% in January, the biggest drop in 6 years, the consumer price index rose 0.2% in February. This is attributed to a rise in gas costs and broad increases in other categories.

Outside of food and energy, the cost of rents, clothes, new and used cars and airfares all also increased 0.2% last month. Even with February’s uptick in prices, economists expect the strong dollar to keep inflation in check in coming months because it makes imported goods cheaper. The dollar has risen sharply in value in the past year compared with the euro and yen, in part because the U.S. economy is growing faster than those in Europe and Japan.

“It is too early to say inflation is turning higher,” said Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets. The dollar’s strength “takes time to filter through to prices, and the recent increase will show up in coming months.”

The Fed has said in a statement that it might be appropriate for an interest rate increase after further improvement in the labor market, as long as inflation remains at its 2% target.

Source: Austin Statesman

Costco Comps Surge 8% In U.S.

January 8, 2015

Costco showed again in December why it's the cream of the crop among warehouse club stores.

The Washington based retailer reported an increase of 8% in same store sales in the United States, excluding gasoline sales and foreign exchange.  Same-store sales at international stores rose by 1%.

Net sales for the retailer rose 5% to $12.2 billion in December from $11.53 billion a year earlier.

For the 18 weeks ended January 4, sales at stores open at least a year rose 4%.  They climbed 6% in the United States, but were flat overseas.  Total revenue for the 18-week period climbed 7 percent to $40.85 billion.

Costco Wholesale Corp., based in Issaquah, Washington, runs 671 warehouses, including 474 in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, 88 in Canada, 34 in Mexico, 26 in the U.K., 20 in Japan, 11 in Korea, 10 in Taiwan, seven in Australia and one in Spain.

Source: Retailing Today

Rite Aid Sales Surge 5.3%

January 5, 2015

Rite Aid Corp. says sales at stores open at least a year grew 5.3% in December, boosted again by strengthening pharmacy sales.

Same-store sales at the Camp Hill, Pennsylvania-based retailer grew 5.3% to $2.2 billion, beating analyst consensus of 4.5% and reflecting a 1.7% increase in front-end same-store sales and a 7.3% increase in pharmacy same-store sales.

"The front-end comp of 1.7% outpaced consensus of 1.2% and represents the strongest two-year trend since last January," noted Ed Kelly, Credit Suisse research analyst.  "Flu-related OTC helped and Wellness remodels are likely a tailwind impact could ramp over time as a higher proportion of the store base is remodeled.  The pharmacy comp beat as wellk, as sales rose 7.3% vs. consensus of 6.3%, although generic impact markedly decelerated sequentially due to the lapping of Cymbalta."

Prescription count at comparable stores increased 5.1% over the prior year period.  Prescription sales accounted for 64.8% of drug store sales, and third party prescription sales represented 97.6% of pharmacy sales.

Same-store sales for the 43 week period ended December 27, 2014 increased 4.3% over the prior-year period.  Front-end same-store sales increased 1% while pharmacy same-store sales increased 5.9%.  Prescription count at comparable stores increased 3.6% over the prior-year period.

Total drug store sales for the 43 week period increased 3.9% with sales of $21.8 billion.  Prescription sales represented 68.6% of total drug store sales, and third party prescription sales represented 97.5% of pharmacy sales.

Source: Retailing Today 

Lowe's CEO: Our Transformation Is Gaining Momentum

December 11, 2014

Lowe's CEO Robert Niblock cited the recovering U.S. economy as among the reasons why the company plans to focus more on market differentiation and omnichannel retailing.

The company said it will outline these and other strategic priorities in a meeting with investors on December 11 in North Carolina.

"We're at a great point in our company's evolution.  The housing market and broader economy are recovering just as our transformation is gaining momentum," Niblock said.  "We're building on our past success and finding new ways to serve and connect with customers."

Although the company shared few specifics, the company announced that it plans to increase its focus on:

• Enhancing its relevance to customers through omnichannel retailing
• Differentiating itself through better customer experiences
• Adapting to a changing home improvement landscape
• And delivering long-term profitable growth and substantial returns for shareholders

"We continue to generate solid cash flow and have exciting opportunities ahead of us," said Robert F. Hull, Jr., Lowe's CRO.  "Return on invested capital is expected to reach approximately 19 percent by 2017, an increase of almost 500 basis points over the next three years."

Lowe's also reiterated its sales and earnings guidance for the 2014 fiscal year:

• Total sales are expected to increase 4.5% to 5%.
• Same store sales are expected to increase 3.5% to 4%.
• The company expects to open six home improvement and four hardware stores.
• Diluted earnings per share of approximately $2.68 are expected for the fiscal year ending January 30.
• Lowe's currently operates more than 1,835 home improvement and hardware stores and has more than 260,000 employees.

Source: Retailing Today