BRING ON THE HOLIDAYS….AND ECOMMERCE SHOPPING

To gear up for what is expected to be a very high e-commerce driven holiday shopping period, UPS says it will hire 95,000 seasonal workers this year, and FedEx Corp will hire close to 150,000. Overall retail hiring is expected to be the same as last year’s high numbers, but a shift to preparing for high online sales with those jobs is clear. Target Corp announced plans to hire 70,000 workers at distribution and fulfillment centers, up 15% from last year.

eMarketer announced survey results that found while moderate growth of 3.3% is expected for holiday retail overall, ecommerce is anticipated to make its biggest jump since 2011, up 17.2%. 71% of shoppers polled said they would make some to all of their gift purchases online. Rubicon Project found similar results in their survey, finding 73% of respondents will shop online, and that 22% of shoppers plan to do all of their holiday shopping online. The report shows that online shoppers will spend 64% on gift cards, 57% on apparel and accessories, 46% on toys and 37% on technology.

Cyber Monday is on track to produce higher results than Black Friday. A shift in the holiday calendar this year is also expected to help retailers. Christmas falls on a Sunday rather than a Friday like last year, giving last minute shoppers an extra Saturday to shop. Hanukkah begins 18 days later than in 2015, which should help generate sales in the latter part of December.

Source: NRF Smartbrief, Chain Store Age, Drug Store News, Fortune

FOURTH OF JULY SALES KICK INTO GEAR: WHAT WILL THE BEST DEALS BE?

School just got out, and everyone is gearing up for the big Independence Day summer holiday. But retailers are already thinking about Back to School, wanting to clear out summer inventory to make way for Back to School sales that will start right after July 4. So where will the biggest savings be, and on what products?

The best deals will be on summer items such as swim and beach wear. Also, as trendy teen and youth apparel sales have suffered in the past few months, these retailers are offering extreme deals for the 4^th of July. The holiday is expected to shatter travel records due to lower gas prices. Also, as consumers spend more on experiences than on merchandise, retailers are promoting items shoppers need to have those road trips and experiences. The holiday weekend will be a great opportunity to stock up on active wear, camping gear and outdoor gear.

Wait until Back to School sales, after the holiday, for denim and electronics, when these items will have deeper discounts. Popular beauty products are not expected to be discounted, as this category is doing well and are high-margin goods for the retailers.

Source: Forbes.com 

Santa is Shopping with his desktop this year

Consumers are shopping 6% more with their desktops this year versus last year, with desktop spending at $35.36 billion in the first 36 days of the shopping season (Nov 1- Dec 6). This figure sets a new record.

Cyber Monday week saw $9.7 billion in desktop spending, up 7%. Spending reached $1 billion + per day for 5 days straight during Cyber Week. 

Holiday spending appears to be on pace to reach forecasts of 9% annual growth in desktop spending and 14% growth overall for the holiday shopping season.

Source: Chain Store Age

NRF ANNOUNCES AMERICANS ARE POISED TO SPEND THIS EASTER

The National Retail Federation released its 2015 Easter Spending Survey, gauging consumer behavior and shopping trends leading to the holiday. The report finds that the average person celebrating Easter will spend $140.62, over 2014’s $137.46 average spend. Total spending is expected to reach $16.4 billion.

“Easter will be the perfect segue into spring for both consumers and retailers who have longed for warmer weather for quite some time,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “As one of the busiest times of year for several retail sectors and as shelves begin filling with both traditional spring and holiday merchandise, retailers are looking forward to welcoming shoppers with attractive promotions on home goods, garden equipment and traditional Easter items.”

The survey found that 45% of those celebrating will purchase clothing, spending more than $2.9 billion. They will also spend $2.4 billion on gifts, $1.1 billion on flowers, $998 million on decorations and $695 million on greeting cards.

58% plan to spend at discount stores, while 41% will shop at department stores. Additionally, 21.8% will shop at a specialty store and 18.8% will shop online.

Source: Retailing Today

Cupid To Shower Americans With Jewelry, Candy This Valentine's Day

January 26, 2015

Cupid has some tricks up his sleeve this year with plans to shower Americans with jewelry, candy and a special night out.  According to the National Federation's Valentine's Day Consumer Spending Survey, the average person celebrating Valentine's Day will spend $142.31 on candy, flowers, apparel and more, up from $133.91 last year.  Total spending is expected to reach $18.9 billion, a survey high.

"It's encouraging to see consumers show interest in spending on gifts and Valentine's Day related merchandise - a good sign for consumer sentiment as we head into 2015," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "Hoping to draw in eager shoppers, retailers will offer unique promotions on gifts, meal options at restaurants and even experiences."

While most (53.2%) plan to buy candy for the sweet holiday, spending a total of $1.7 billion, one in five (21.1%) plans to buy jewelry for a total of $4.8 billion, the highest amount seen since NRF began tracking spending on Valentine's gifts in 2010.

Additionally, 37.8 percent will buy flowers, spending a total of $2.1 billion, and more than one-third (35.1%) will spend on plans for a special night out, indlucing movies and restaurants, totaling $3.6 billion.  Celebrants will also spend nearly $2 billion on clothing and $1.5 billion on the gift that keeps on giving: gift cards.

The survey found nine in 10 (91%) plan to treat their significant others/spouses to something special for the consumer holiday, with plans to spend an average of $87.94 on them, up from $78.09 last year.  Additionally, 58.7 percent will spend an average of $26.26 on other family members and $6.30 on average - which equates to a whopping $703 million on pint-sized gifts of all varieties.

"It's great to see consumers coming out of their shell this year, looking to spend discretionary budgets on those they love once again, though I fully expect many to continue to look for ways to cut costs where they can.  While many will splurge, some will still look for simple and affordable ways to show their appreciation for friends and family and celebrate in a way they are most comfortable with."

Discount (35.2%) and department stores (36.5%) will be among the most visited locations for those looking for the perfect Valentine's Day gift, as will specialty stores (19.4%) and florists (18.7%).  One-quarter (25.1%) say they will shop online and 13.3 percent will shop at a local or small business to find something unique for their loved one.

It seems women are in for the biggest treat this Valentine's Day.  Men will spend nearly double what women plan to spend ($190.53 versus $96.58 on average, respectively.)  Additionally, adults 25 to 34 will outspend other age groups at an average of $213.04; 35 to 44 year olds will spend an average of $176.21 and 18 to 24 year olds will spend an average of $168.95.

Source: National Retail Federation

Early Holiday Promotions Help Put Shoppers Ahead On Their Shopping Lists

December 17, 2014

Half of Consumers Polled Will Wrap Up Christmas Shopping Online

For millions of Americans the rush to find the perfect gift started early this year, and according to the National Retail Federation's latest Holiday Consumer Spending Survey, the average holiday shopper has completed 52.9 percent of their shopping as of December 10, up from 49.9 percent last year.

"This year we witnessed 'a tale of two holiday shoppers' with many jumping on retailers' early, hard-to-pass-up in-store promotions, and others waiting until the last minute to wrap up their lists," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "In the final stretch, retailers will continue to look for creative ways to attract those with shopping left to do by offering exclusive Super Saturday promotions, extending their in-store holiday hours and promoting deals on expedited shipping.  We are optimistic the holiday season will end on a high note for retailers."

For the first time, NRF asked those who had completed less than half (50%) of their shopping why they have chosen to wait until December to wrap up their shopping.  The survey found that nearly half (46.8%) said they waited this year because they were still trying to decide what to buy, nearly three in 10 (28.4%) said they are waiting for input from their family and friends, and another 28.4 percent said they are waiting for the best deals on holiday merchandise.

When it comes to where people will do the remainder of their shopping, the survey found nearly half (49.1%) of holiday shoppers will shop online; two in five (44.3%) will shop at department stores, 30.1 percent will head to discount stores, 22 percent will visit clothing stores and 19.3 percent will shop at electronics stores.

NRF also asked holiday shoppers about their use of price matching this holiday season.  According to the survey, 15.6 percent said they have requested a price match from a retailer.  However, broken out by age it is clear that young adults have taken advantage of this service: nearly three in 10 (27.9%) 18-24 year olds say they have requested a price match from a retailer this holiday season; one in five (21.8%) 25-34 year olds and 18 percent of 35-44 year olds have also asked for a price match.

Christmas Day activities run the gamut for holiday celebrants, however, most say they will spend the day visiting with family and friends (66.2%).  Another 59.6 percent say they will open gifts on Christmas Day, and 48.8 percent will cook a holiday meal.  When not opening gifts or visiting with friends and family, one in five (22.2%) will browse the web and just 7.4 percent plan to actually shop online on Christmas Day.

While there's plently of shopping left to do, nearly one-third (32.8%) plan to buy their last holiday gift before Thursday, December 18; 14.5 percent will look to Super Saturday (Saturday, December 20) to purchase their last gift, and 9.1% will wait until the very last minute and buy their last gift on Christmas Eve.  Additionally, more men than women will wait until Christmas Eve to purchase the last gift (10.5% versus 7.9% respectively).

"Though millions of eager consumers jumped on early holiday promotions, there is still plenty of shopping left to do.  Hurried last-minute shoppers will look for gift cards, clothing items, toys and other popular gifts from a variety of retailers, likely even hoping to win big with expedited shipping deals and extremely low prices online and in stores."

Source: National Retail Federation

Sales, Traffic Decline Thanksgiving Weekend

December 1, 2014

Fewer Americans shopped and they spent less money during the Thanksgiving weekend, according to new estimates from the National Retail Federation.

Early holiday promotions, the continued growth of online shopping, and an improving economy changed the way millions of people approached the biggest shopping weekend of the year, according to NRF's Thanksgiving Weekend Spending Survey.  More than half of Americans shopped in stores or online (55.1 percent) but that was less than the prior year when 58.7 percent of Americans shopped.  Overall shopper traffic from Thanksgiving Day through Sunday, November 30 declined 5.2 percent to 133.7 million unique holiday shoppers versus 141.1 million in 2013.  Total shopping, including multiple trips by the same shopper, declined to 233.3 million trips versus 248.6 million.

"A strengthening economy that changes consumers' reliance on deep discounts, a highly competitive environment, early promotions and the ability to shop 24/7 online all contributed to the shift witnessed this weekend," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "We are excited to be witnessing an evolutionary change in holiday shopping by both consumers and retailers, and expect this trend to continue in the years ahead."

According to the survey, the average person who shopped or will shop the holiday weekend spent $380.95, down 6.4 percent from $407.02 last year.  Total spending is expected to reach $50.9 billion, down from last year's estimated $57.4 billion.

Though the overall number of shoppers dropped this year, it remains clear that Black Friday still draws the biggest crowds of the weekend.  According to the survey 86.9 million shoppers were in stores and online on Black Friday while 43.1 million shopped on Thanksgiving Day.  Online shopping appears to have eroded store traffic, but also declined.  According to the survey the average person who shopped over the weekend spent $159.55 online, approximately 41.9 percent of their total average budget, down 10.2 percent from $177.67 last year.  Most shoppers say they shopped online on Black Friday (46.7%), though 36.3 percent say they shopped online on Saturday.  Additionally more than one-quarter (26.2%) of holiday shoppers were online on Thanksgiving Day.

"Though much shopping has been done by this point, it's important to remember that there are still many weeks left in the holiday season, and savvy shoppers will continue to look for exclusive prices to purchase holiday gifts.  As competition for customer dollars heats up, consumers will be the ultimate winners in the end.  Shoppers this year have made it clear that they no longer only value deep discounts on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, they want the entire package from beginning to end - free shipping, early promotions, convenient ways to use their mobile devices, and, of course, hard-to-beat online deals."

Source: Retailing Today 

Thanksgiving Weekend Shopping, By The Numbers

November, 2014

The biggest shopping weekend of the year is only days away and retailers are gearing up for another Thanksgiving weekend of holiday shopping and promotions.

Since the recession, retailers competing for shopping dollars and market share have had to rethink tried-and-true holiday marketing strategies.  Good prices, great value, unique product assortment and convenience are just a few of the aspects that contribute to happy holiday shopping experiences.

Some companies are generating buzz and responding to consumer demands by opening on Thanksgiving Day, while others look to promote their brand by resisting early openings on Thursday.

Here's a look at key numbers from Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday in 2013:

• 44.8 million: Consumers who shopped on Thanksgiving Day, up 27 percent from 2012.
• 92.1 million: Consumers who shopped on Black Friday in 2013.
• $407: Average amount spent by holiday shoppers from Thanksgiving Day to Sunday, down 4 percent from 2012.
• 248.7 million: Number of shoppers who were in stores and online over Thanksgiving weekend in 2013, up 0.5 percent over the previous year.
• 4.9 percent: Portion of holiday shopprs who were at stores by 5pm on Thanksgiving Day.
• 37 percent: Portion of holiday shoppers who were at stores by 12:01am on Black Friday, up from 28 percent in 2012.
• 64 percent: Portion of holiday shoppers who went out on Thanksgiving Day or visited stores by 10am on Black Friday.
• 45 percent: The amount of holiday shopping the average consumer had completed by the Sunday after Thanksgiving, up from 42 percent in 2012.

With more than $50 billion in sales on the line for just a single weekend during retail's most competitive season, retailers will be looking for ways to wow their customers.  It's too soon to say if the Thanksgiving Day shopping trend will fade or if the buzz will build in 2015, but this year, we're betting on another strong turnout.

Source: National Retail Federation

140 Million Holiday Shoppers Likely To Take Advantage Of Thanksgiving Weekend Deals

November 20, 2014

Americans are readying for the upcoming Thanksgiving weekend by making sure they have a menu for their family gathering and a complete shopping list for their weekend shopping activities.  According to NRF's Thanksgiving Weekend Expectations survey, which provides a preliminary look at shopping expectations over Thanksgiving weekend, six in 10 (61.1%) say they will or may shop either Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday, which equates to more than 140.1 million unique shoppers.  Expectations are similar to last year's preliminary survey results of 140.3 million.

Specifically, 67.6 million holiday shoppers (29.5%) say they will shop, down slightly from 69.4 million who planned to do so last year, and 72.5 million (31.6%) say they will wait and see if the deals are worth it before they decide, up 2 percent over last year's 71 million "maybe" shoppers.

"Consumers today want more than just the discounts they've been showered with since the start of the recession; they want exclusive offerings and a good reason to spend their discretionary budgets," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "We could witness a see change this holiday season as consumers' reliance on extremely deep discounts over the biggest shopping weekend of the year shifts to more of a 'wait-and-see' mentality around what retailers will be offering on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.  We are positive retailers have a few tricks up their sleeve that will draw their customers to their stores and websites, deciding the deals are worth it after all."

When it comes to preliminary expectations for when people will shop, of the 61.1 percent who will or may shop in stores and online over the weekend, 18.3 percent (25.6 million) say they will check out retailers' Thanksgiving Day deals and shop Thursday, down from the preliminary 23.5 percent last year; 74 percent of those who plan to shop on Thanksgiving Day say they shopped on Thanksgiving Day last year.

Additionally, more than two-thirds (68.2%) will shop on Black Friday (95.5 million), two in five (42.9%) will shop on Saturday (60 million) and one in five (21.6%) will shop on Sunday (30.3 million).

For the first time NRF asked shoppers about their intentions to shop on Small Business Saturday.  The survey found of those shopping on Saturday, nearly three-quarters (72.7%) say they will or may specifically shop for Small Business Saturday.

"More than just a shopping day, Small Business Saturday highlights the millions of entrepreneurs and visionaries who help make retail the dynamic and community-focused industry that it is," continued Shay.

Much talk has surfaced in the last few years over the number of young adults who shop on Thanksgiving, and this year millennials are indicating they are once again anxious to take advantage of what retailers have to offer.  According to the survey nearly eight in 10 (79.6%) 18-24 year olds will or may shop over the weekend, the highest of any age group.  Specifically, nearly one-quarter (22.6%) will shop on Thanksgiving Day, down slightly from 27.8 percent last year and 79.9 percent will shop on Black Friday, up from 71.5 percent who planned to do so last year.  Nearly three-quarters (73.2%) of 18-24 year olds say they shopped on Thanksgiving last year.

"For younger shoppers, shopping on Thanksgiving and Black Friday is as much a social experience as it is a buying mission.  While these shoppers may not have the biggest holiday budgets or the longest shopping lists, they still enjoy the 'tradition' of heading out with friends and family on two of retail's most exciting shopping days."

Source: National Retail Federation 

Holiday Shoppers To Spend More Than $31 Billion On Gift Cards This Year

November 13, 2014

The growth in gift card popularity is irrefutable, and this holiday season spending on tiny plastic or digital gift cards will top all previous records.  According to NRF's Gift Card Spending Survey, the average person buying gift cards will spend $172.74, up from $163 last year.  Total spending is expected to reach $31.74 billion.  In an October NRF survey, 62 percent of shoppers said they would like to receive a gift card, making gift cards the most requested gift item eight years in a row.

"No longer impersonal or only about convenience, gift cards have become the perfect, practical gift item for millions of holiday shoppers," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "And, as the most requested gift item for eight years in a row, we're sure there will be plenty of happy individuals this holiday season who can look forward to treating themselves to something shiny and new come January when retailers start to offer promotions on fresh new merchandise."

According to the survey, shoppers will spend an average of $47.87, up from $45.16 last year.  Total spending on gift cards has increased 83 percent since NRF began tracking consumers' intentions to buy gift cards as holiday gifts in 2003.

Gift cards are a go-to gift for consumers of all ages; the survey found adults 65+ will spend the most on gift cards at an average of $204.59.  Young adults between 18-24 years old will spend the least at an average of $113.75.  Additionally, men plan to spend significantly more than women on gift cards ($180.81 vs. $165.09 respectively).

"These days, shoppers simply love the idea of gifting someone they care about with a little 'free money' in the form of a gift card.  Consumers young and old want to find the best way possible to create a happy holiday experience for their loved ones, and gift cards are a great option every time."

There are a plethora of options for shoppers when it comes to what type of card to get, and it is clear department stores, restaurants and coffee shops are among the most popular choice for gift givers.  According to the survey 37.7 percent of gift card buyers will give their loved ones a gift card from a department store, and 34 percent will give their friends and family the gift of a meal at a restaurant.  One in five (20.6%) will pick up coffee shop gift cards, 18.1 percent will give the gift of entertainment, such as a movie theatre gift card, and 18.9 percent will give gift cards to electronics stores.

Source: National Retail Federation

JCP Turnaround In Holiday Homestretch

November 13, 2014

J.C. Penney is in the final phase of its turnaround and the company's stores are customers' preferred destination for great style, quality and value, according to company CEO Mike Ullman.

Those comments came after J.C. Penney said its third quarter same store sales were flat and it forecast a fourth quarter comp increase of 2% to 4%.  Total sales in the quarter ended November 1 declined slightly to $2.76 billion from $2.78 billion.

The company reported an operating loss of $54 million, but that was a massive improvement from the prior year when the company reported a staggering operating loss of $401 million.  Other positives from the quarter were gross margins which expanded to 36.6% of sales, compared to 29.5% in the same quarter last year, thanks to strength in the home and fine jewelry categories.  The company also reduced expenses and reduced inventories by 10.4%.

"This quarter shows the progress we are making in the final phase of J.C. Penney's turnaround.  We continued to significantly improve the profitability of our business with gross margin expansion of 710 basis points, a $342 million improvement in EBITDA and bottom-line financial results that exceeded even our own expectations," Ullman said.  "Like most retailers, following a strong start to the back-to-school season, sales did slow in September and October as unseasonably warm weather hindered the sale of fall goods."

Ullman's observation on the third quarter was that during what he called "appointment shopping periods" such as back to school and holidays, J.C. Penney is the customers' preferred destination for discovering great style, quality and value.

"This year, we are confident customers will once again choose J.C. Penney for meaningful holiday gifts that fit their family budget.  We are well positioned to complete this holiday season and I would like to thank our associates for their hard work, warrior spirit and commitment to delivering an exceptional customer experience every day," Ullman said.

Source: Retailing Today

Bargain Hunters Holding Out For Hot Holiday Deals

November 12, 2014

Procrastinators and bargain hunters alike are taking their time getting started with their holiday shopping bonanza, possibly to take advantage of deeper discounts over Thanksgiving weekend and late in the season.  According to NRF's Holiday Consumer Spending Survey, 45.6 percent of holiday shoppers say they haven't started shopping yet, relatively flat with last years' 46.2 percent but the lowest in the sruvey's seven-year history.

"Many consumers are going to wait and see how great the promotions will be later this season before making any commitments," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "Retailers have reacted to this 'wait and see' mentality with fewer October deals and a much quieter entry into November, when we'll start to see retailers ramp up with offers for exclusive merchandise, deep discounts and unique online savings opportunities."

The survey found that while slightly fewer people haven't started shopping yet, 20.6 percent have finished 10 percent or less of their shopping, while 12.4 percent have completed about one-quarter of their lists; 2.2 percent are saying they can sit back and relax as they have already finished their shopping for friends and family.

Unsurprisingly, apparel, toys and video games will be popular gift items this year.  The survey found six in 10 (60.9%) will buy clothing and accessories, 46.3 percent will buy books, CDs, DVDs and video games, and two in five (42%) will buy toys.  Likely having loaded up on wearable technology items and new smartphones throughtout the year, slightly fewer people will buy electronic items as gifts (30.7% vs. 33%).  Some people are in for a real treat: 24 percent of shoppers will buy jewelry for a friend or family member, the highest percent since 2006.  Gift cards continue as a favorite for both shoppers and recipients as six in 10 (60%) will buy gift cards, similar to the 59.2 percent who planned to do so last year.  In an October NRF survey, 60 percent of shoppers also said they'd like to receive gift cards, making gift cards the most requested gift item for eight years in a row.

Shoppers look for inspiration for gifts from every corner, and with the innovative creation of retailers' wish lists, many consumers this holiday season will take to the web to point loved ones to specific, perfect gift ideas.  The survey found 32.1 percent say they will look for inspiration on wish lists, up from 28.8 percent last year.  Others will conduct online searches (47.7%), discuss options with family and friends (41.7%), check out advertising circulars (34.3%) and email advertisements (20.1%), and even search Facebook (10.6%).

"Retailers make holiday shoppers' job easy with so many options to find the perfect gift, and with little room to waste on gifts that don't make sense, consumers today want to be sure what they buy is used and enjoyed by their loved ones.  On the hunt for bargains, quality merchandise that is unique and even exclusive, gift givers this holiday season will seek out both practical and indulgent gift items, though being sure not to break the bank."

When it comes to how shoppers will pay for their gifts, nearly four in 10 (38%) will use their credit card, the most in the survey's history and up from 28.5 percent last year; one in five (21.6%) will use cash and 38.4 percent will use their debit or check card.  Just 2.1 percent will use a check, the lowest in the survey's history.

When broken down by age group, young adults ages 18-24 are the least likely to use credit to pay for gifts at just 17.7 percent, and 65+ are the most likely to use credit cards at 56 percent.  Nearly half of 18-24 year olds (48.9%) plan to use their debit or check card to buy gift items.

Source: Retailing Today 

Consumers In Better Holiday Spirits

November 4, 2014

U.S. households plan to spend an average of $538 on gifts this holiday season, up slightly from $528 last year, The Conference Board reports today.  About 8 percent of consumers say they plan to spend more this year on holiday gifts, while approximately 32 percent plan to spend less.  The remaining 60 percent plan to spend the same as last year.

"The recent improvements in consumer confidence - along with robust job growth and declines in gas prices - have consumers approaching the holiday season in better spirits than last year," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.  "However, despite the improved holiday cheer, consumers will once again seek out bargains and incentives when making their purchases."

About one in three holiday shoppers say they expect over half of their purchases to be on sale or discounted.  An increasing number of consumers will be clicking and shipping.  Nearly seven out of ten expect to purchase at least some of their holiday gifts online, while about one out of four say more than half of their gifts will be purchased online.

Source: The Conference Board

Gift Givers Plan To Splurge On Friends, Family This Holiday Season

Average shopper to do 44% of their holiday shopping online, most in survey's history.

October 16, 2014

It's the most wonderful time of the year for millions of Americans, and according to the National Retail Federation's Holiday Consumer Spending Survey, gift recipients are in for a real treat this holiday season.  NRF's survey found the average person celebrating Christmas, Kwanza and/or Hanukah will spend $804.42, up nearly 5 percent over last year's actual $767.27. 

"Retailers have plenty of reasons to be optimistic this holiday season, and one of the most important pieces of evidence is the confidence holiday shoppers are exuding in their plans to spend on gifts for their loved ones," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "While not completely throwing caution to the wind, Americans' frugal spending habits will still be visible this holiday season as they continue to rely on discounts and sales and comparison shop.  Consumers will put retailers to the test when it comes to the product mix and value companies can offer today's shopper who is focused on much more than just price."

The survey found consumers will spend an average of $459.87 on gifts for their family, up 6.5 percent from $432.00 last year, and $80.00 on gifts for friends, up from $75.00 last year.  Those celebrating the holidays will also spend more on gifts for their co-workers ($26.23 vs. $24.52 in 2013), and others like their babysitter and even their pets ($30.43 vs. $26.65).

Spending on traditional items such as decorations and food will remain flat: according to the survey, consumers will spend an average of $104.74 on food, $53.68 on decorations and $29.18 on greeting cards and $20.30 on flowers.

Shoppers shift budgets to make room for others

One of the more popular trends in recent years - self-gifting - will decrease this year as shoppers opt to shift their budgets towards spending on others: 56.9% of holiday shoppers say they plan to take advantage of sales and discounts to purchase non-gift items for themselves or others, and will spend an average of $126.68, down from $134.77 last year.

Mobile, online shopping big focus for consumers this holiday season

If it wasn't official last year, it will be this year - holiday shoppers are eager to shop online for their gifts and other needs.  According to the survey, 56 percent plan to shop online, up from 51.5 percent last year and the most in the survey's 13-year history.  Additionally, the average person plans to do 44.4 percent of their shopping online, the most since NRF first asked in 2006.

Looking for great prices and value as they shop around for holiday items, many consumers will visit discount (61.9%), department (59.7%) and grocery stores (51.2%).  Others will head to clothing or accessories stores (36.7%), electronics (30.8%), drug (19.2%) and craft and fabric stores (18.8%).

As mobile grows in use and scope, consumers this holiday season will turn to their on-the-go devices for a plethora of reasons.  The survey found the majority of smartphone owners (55.7%) will use their device in some fashion, up from 53.8 percent last year.  Specifically, 35.8 percent will research products/prices, the highest amount in the four years NRF has been asking.  Nearly one-quarter (23.9%) will redeem coupons and 19.1 percent will actually purchase items - another survey high.

Almost two-thirds (63.2%) of tablet owners will use their device to research and purchase holiday items, which is the same as last holiday season.  Nearly half (47.4%) will research products and one-third (33%) will purchase items.

More than one-quarter of smartphone/tablet owners comfortable using device to pay for merchandise

For the first time, NRF asked consumers about their comfort level using a smartphone or tablet to pay for merchandise at a store checkout counter.  According to the survey, 27.4 percent said they would be somewhat or very comfortable; however, two in five (41.9%) say they are not very or not at all comfortable paying for items that way.

Broken out by age, 41.1 percent of 25-34 year olds are somewhat or very comfortable using their device to pay for items at the register, compared to just 14.4 percent of those 65+.  Men are much more likely to feel comfortable with the technology (32.6% vs. 22.5% of women).

Four in 10 still shopping before Halloween, mostly to spread out their spending

Early-bird shoppers have already been out and about this year.  The survey found four in 10 (40.4%) begin their holiday shopping before Halloween - consistent with more than 10 years of survey findings.  The survey also found 40.9 percent will begin in November, up slightly from 38.8 percent last year, and 15.5 percent will begin in the first two weeks of December, flat with 16 percent last year.

When asked why they begin shopping for the holiday season as early as September, most agree it helps them spread out their spending (61.9%).  Half choose to do so to avoid holiday crowds (51.7%), and another 51.0 percent say shopping early helps them avoid the stress of last-minute shopping.  Nearly three in 10 (29.9%) say they shop for the holiday season year-round, and more than one-quarter (27.3%) say the desire to get their hands on specific items drives them to shop early; unsurprisingly, 44.7 percent shop early because the deals and promotions are too good to pass up.

Mobile sites, discounts, quality of merchandise factors in consumers' decision to shop somewhere

When it comes to why consumers chose to shop where they do during the holiday season, retailers should take heed: one-quarter of shoppers say easy-to-use mobile websites is an important factor in their decision to shop with a specific retailer.  Those polled also say free shipping/shipping promotions (42.3%) are important factors.  Consumers add that helpful, knowledgeable customer service (30.3%), convenient locations (47.9%), low prices (41.2%) and sales or price discounts (74.7%) also aid in their decision to shop at a particular retailer.

As the market becomes more competitive than ever before, retailers in recent years have begun to stress quality and selection of merchandise, and shoppers are paying attention:  according to the survey, six in 10 say quality of merchandise (60.9%) and selection of merchandise (59.4%) are important factors in their decision to shop somewhere.

"Even with expectations for increased spending this year, smart shopping strategies will be very important to those celebrating the holidays.  Overall, consumers feel better about where they stand compared to a year ago, and as such could find themselves stretching their dollars to give their loved ones a holiday season to remember.  Retailers, however, should still expect to see high demand for sales, coupons and other promotions as shoppers focus on 'what's in it for them'."

Gift cards, jewelry high on wish lists

For the eighth year in a row, gift cards are the most requested gift item among those celebrating the holidays.  According to the survey, 62 percent say they'd most like to receive a gift card, followed by clothing (52.5%), books, CDs, DVDs or video games (43.1%), and electronics (34.6%).  One-quarter (24.8%) say they'd like to receive jewelry, up from 23.3 percent last year.

Economic impact dramatically decreases

When asked if the state of the U.S. economy would impact their holiday spending plans, four in 10 (41.4%) said yes, down almost 20 percent from last year and the lowest amount since NRF first asked in 2009.  Of those who said yes, most agree they will compensate by spending less overall (75.6%).  Others will shop for sales more often (49.0%), comparison shop online more often (34.4%), use coupons more often (37%), buy more practical gifts (28.4%) and use last year's decorations (24.8%).

NRF is forecasting holiday sales to increase 4.1 percent.

Source: National Retail Federation 

Black Friday Gets Even Blacker This Year

October 15, 2014

A delayed start to the shopping season is causing consumers to postpone their holiday purchases until Thanksgiving weekend.

Sixteen percent of consumers had already started their holiday shopping, versus 15% last year.  An additional 19% stated they plan to start shopping before Thanksgiving, compared to 22% last year.  However, 18% claim they will start during Thanksgiving weekend, a sharp contrast to last year's 13%.  Among the consumers reporting that they will begin their shopping during Thanksgiving weekend, 12% plan to shop on Black Friday, while the remaining 6% plan to do their shopping on Saturday and/or Sunday.

"Consumers are anticipating the Thanksgiving weekend door-buster deals and other savings incentives, and as a result of their proven interest in special sales and deals, retailers last year began to open on Thanksgiving Day, with more stores jumping on this new tradition this year.  However, it's important to keep in mind that this doesn't mean more sales at the register.  After all, how many more family members and friends do consumers need to shop for just because the stores decided to open earlier?  How much more money do they have in their holiday budget because the stores started promoting earlier?  This year we'll see more shopping happening in the Thanksgiving zone, a deeper lull following, and finally a mad dash at the end for the last-minute shoppers."

The holiday forecast is bright for online retailers.  Nearly 60% of consumers plan to do at least some of their holiday shopping online this year, making online the leading channel for holiday shopping.  Women are more likely than men to shop online as are those with children in the household.

Online is leading the way for consumers through all phases of their purchases, from pre-shopping homework to the checkout counter.  Two-thirds of those who do pre-purchase research claim that they will utilize online research to learn more about products before making a holiday purchase, topping consumer reviews and television ads, among others.  In addition to special prices and overall value, consumers list convenience and free shipping as top purchase drivers, tying into the online appeal.

"Online has truly become the place for consumers to start and finish their holiday shopping.  Last year we saw a mad dash at the end, with many consumers disappointed because gifts were delayed due to so much last minute online shopping.  Hopefully stores and shippers learned from that mistake, and will be more prepared for the even bigger crush to come closer to the holidays this year.  Until retailers drive the consumers back into the stores, online will continue to grow at a faster pace than traditional store shopping.  The convenience and bargains offered online are too plentiful for the consumer to pass up."

Source: Retailing Today

Holiday Shopping To Decrease 7.5%

October 7, 2014

The 2014 holiday shopping season will be characterized by cautious spending, while economic realities create one of two American holiday shoppers - survivalists and selectionists - according to a new report released from PricewaterhouseCoopers U.S. and Strategy, titled "2014 Holiday Outlook: Top trends, consumer behaviors and implications for retailers."

The report was based on a survey of more than 2,000 shoppers nationwide and was far different from the National Retail Federation's bullish seasonal spending forecast.

"The upcoming holiday shopping season will look very similar to 2013 as shoppers remain cautious on the economy and are concerned about disposable income, the rising cost of living and insufficient salary, leading surveyed participants to project an average household spend of $684, down from $753 in 2013," stated Steven Barr, PwC's U.S. retail and consumer practice leader.  "The spending divide among shoppers is widening, creating two distinct groups that we are tracking - survivalists and selectionists - and retailers must cater to both segments.  And with shoppers coming to expect a seamless omnichannel experience, deals to woo them into stores and having no tolerance for another season of data privacy invasion, it's a complex retail landscape that retailers need to master - or they risk losing loyal shoppers."

10 trends are expected to drive the 2014 holiday shopping season:

1. Shoppers express strong overall concerns about holiday shopping, as they remain cautious on the economy with 72% believing a same or worse environment when compared to the year before.
2. The 2014 holiday shopper is segmenting into two distinct groups: survivalists - those making under $50,000 per year, representing 67% of American shoppers; and selectionists - those making more than $50,000 per year, representing 33% of American shoppers.
3. Spending drivers are clearer than ever this holiday season, with as many as 84% of shoppers citing best practices as the main reason for choosing a place to purchase gifts (up from 74% in 2013).
4. Expect more channel fragmentation as shoppers budget for not only dollars, but their time.
5. It will be important to understand the cash/credit position of shoppers during the entire season.
6. The 3 S's of shopping - searching, showrooming and selection - have become permanent.
7. Shoppers are clear about what they will spend their holiday dollars on, making it critical for retailers to differentiate within those categories.
8. Shoppers recognize that experiences are beginning to count just as much, or more, than gifts.
9. Shoppers plan to shop at multiple stores as well as websites.
10. Retailers have significantly upped their game in planning for and investing in improved in-store and omnichannel experiences.

"With consumers having even higher demands for their shopping experience - no matter the channel - we conducted this survey to better understand how retailers can meet the needs of their shopping habits this holiday season," Barr said.  "What we learned was that to compete effectively at retail this year, it demands a new level of organizational and operational excellence."

Source: Retailing Today

NRF Forecasts Seasonal Employment To Grow Between 725,000-800,000

October 7, 2014

According to NRF, retailers are expected to hire between 725,000-800,000 seasonal workers this holiday season, potentially more than they actually hired during the 2013 holiday season (768,000).  Seasonal employment in 2013 increased 14 percent over the previous holiday season.

"These holiday positions offer hundreds of thousands of people the opportunity to turn their seasonal position into a long-term career opportunity in retail," said Shay.

Source: National Retail Federation

Retailers' Holiday Happiness Hinges On The G-factor

October 3, 2014

How well many retailers perform this holiday season in store and online will be determined by the shopping preferences of a demographic group that doesn't typically get a lot of love from marketers.

Marketers invest heavily in researching highly desirable segments, such as Millennials or the growing U.S. Hispanic population, to uncover actionable insights and develop sales strategies.  However, that isn't the case with grandparents, which is a huge miss for brands and retailers clawing for every last share point.  There are approximately 70 million grandparents in the U.S. and they will spend an estimated $52 billion on their grandchildren this year, including $17 billion on gifts, according to the American Grandparents Association.

That's a lot of spending power, but capturing those dollars requires a deeper understanding of grandparents' behavior relative to parents and other shoppers.  The biggest area of difference between older and younger consumers: online shopping.  Online buying is still slow to catch on with the grandparents segment.  Seventy-one percent of grandparents say that the majority or all of their shopping (outside of grocery or pharmacy shopping) is done at a physical store - compare this to 61% of parents.

When comparing the grandparents segment from one year ago to that of today, we see slight shifts in spending from physical stores towards online.  Among the most recent grandparent respondents, 68% said they do most of their shopping at bricks-and-mortar locations vs. 73% one year ago, and those who say they split their spending equally with online shopping grew from 13% a year ago to 17% today.

This growth could be the result of a number of different factors, including a greater number of older adults recognizing the convenience benefits of online shopping, particularly if they have physical limitations that make it difficult to navigate large stores or malls, push through crowds, or visit numerous individual locations.  Because many of them are retired, they are also at home more often to accept package deliveries.  Also, younger grandparents who are still working full time may simply like the time-saving benefits afforded by online shopping as they seek to manage their busy schedules and empty-nester social lives.

Regardless of the grandparent's age, the holiday season brings with it the opportunity to treat the grandkids to some nice gifts or other surprises.  When 5,069 grandparents were asked to characterize their gift-giving practices toward their grandchildren, most (54%) feel they are pretty well balanced in how much they purchase.  The "spoilers" who say they enjoy giving the youngsters lots of gifts and/or money account for 16%, and 23% are the "selective gifters" who say their practice is to buy a few high-quality items.  A small percentage (nearly 8%) instead focus on doing other things for their grandchildren that don't involve giving gifts or money, perhaps due to being more cash-strapped and/or on fixed incomes.  We had thought the data would show a higher percentage for "spoilers," since the poll question was answered voluntarily and anonymously, but perhaps the definition of spoiling is viewed differently by grandparents vs. non-grandparents.

Regardless of how many gifts are purchased, grandparents are less likely to flock to large sales events like Black Friday.  While 15% of parents and 13% of the general population say they wait for Black Friday to start most of their shopping, only 8% of grandparents say this.

For the 2014 holiday shopping season, grandparents look very similar to the general population in plans for gift expenses: Only 12% say they will spend more on gifts this year, 39% will spend less, 35% will spend about the same, and 14% won't spend any money on gifts.  Many older adults are on fixed incomes, so that certainly plays a role with this segment, as they are 55% more likely than the general population to say they will spend no money on holiday gifts this year.

Despite how much they will spend, there are key differences in where they will spend those gift dollars.  Grandparents indicate they are more likely to spend most of their holiday gift budget at larger discount stores like Walmart or Target (42% said this, compared to 34% for the general population and 39% for parents).  They are also more likely than parents to shop at small, locally-owned stores (16% vs. 9% of parents), but far less likely to spend big at specialty retail chains like The Gap or Best Buy - only 1% of them will spend most of their money here.

Due to the sizable spending power of this consumer group, retail marketers should take note of the grandparents segment.  It's important to take away that grandparents differ from the general population of U.S. adult consumers in several key areas: they are more likely to stretch out their holiday shopping and avoid major sales events or days; spend most of their holiday shopping money at discount superstores; and are starting to show some uptick in online shopping.  Their incomes are a factor in their gift-giving decisions for grandchildren as well.

These types of insights can certainly be leveraged by retailers to formulate segment-based promotions, in-store and online services, and even specialized offerings that cater to the attributes seen more in these older family members.

Source: Retailing Today

Deloitte Forecasts Boost In This Year's Retail Holiday Sales

September 24, 2014

According to Deloitte's annual retail holiday sales forecast, steadily improving economic fundamentals should moderately boost holiday sales in stores and online this year.

"Income, wage and job growth are positive indicators heading into the holiday season," said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's senior U.S. economist.  "Debt levels remain at historical lows, and stock market gains coupled with increasing home prices have a wealth effect on consumers, which may encourage increased spending compared with prior years.  Although consumers are watching tensions unfold in the Middle East and Ukraine, the improvement in their economic situation should more than offset the foreign conflicts' impact on consumer confidence and retail sales.  Despite recent events in energy-producing areas of the world, gas prices have held steady, which may also sustain consumers' spending power."

Deloitte's retail and distribution practice expects total holiday sales to climb to between $981 and $986 billion, representing a 4 to 4.5% increase in November through January holiday sales (excluding motor vehicles and gasoline) over last season.  This growth rate is a moderate improvement over last year's 2.8% gain.  Additionally, Deloitte forecasts a 13.5 to 14% increase in non-store sales in the online and mail order channels during the 2014 holiday season.

"While online sales continue to climb, digital customer interactions through both virtual and physical store channels present greater sales opportunities than online or mobile commerce alone," said Alison Paul, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and retail and distribution sector leader.  "Our research indicates that 84 percent of shoppers use digital tools before and during their trip to a store.  Additionally, those shoppers convert, or make a purchase, at a 40 percent higher rate than those who do not use such devices during their shopping journey."

Deloitte forecasts that digital interactions will influence 50%, or $345 billion, of retail sales this holiday season.  This figure reflects the extent to which consumers' use of desktop and laptop computers, tablets and smartphones influence brick-and-mortar store sales.

"Retailers should focus on the right functionality, rather than more functionality, when creating digital experiences this holiday season.  Rather than offer their full e-commerce site on a mobile device, for example, retailers may be more effective by helping consumers compare prices, scan through local assortments, and navigate the store.  Retailers that better understand how consumers make purchasing decisions, then deliver tools that support that process in a way that is consistent and complementary across online, mobile and store channels - may have the advantage this holiday season," Paul said.

Source: Retailing Today

Spooky And Scary Alike, Record Number Of Americans To Buy Halloween Costumes This Year

September 24, 2014

More costumes than ever will be flying off the shelves as Americans gear up to celebrate the spookiest holiday of the year, according to NRF's Halloween Consumer Spending Survey.  More than two-thirds (67.4%) of celebrants will buy Halloween costumes for the holiday, the most in the survey's 11 year history.  The average person will spend $77.52 this Halloween, compared to $75.03 last year.  Total spending on Halloween this year will reach $7.4 billion.

"As one of the fastest-growing consumer holidays, Halloween has retailers of all shapes and sizes preparing their stores and websites for the busy fall shopping season," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "There's no question that the variety of adult, child and even pet costumes now available has driven the demand and popularity of Halloween among consumers of all ages.  And, with the holiday falling on a Friday this year, we fully expect there will be a record number of consumers taking to the streets, visiting haunted houses and throwing unforgettable celebrations."

Party-goers will splurge on spooky and fun garb to wear this year as $2.8 billion will be spent on costumes overall.  Specifically, celebrants will shell out $1.1 billion on children's costumes, and $1.4 billion on adult costumes.  It is clear Fido and Fluffy will not be forgotten:  Americans will spend $350 million on costumes for their furry friends.

Candy and greeting cards alike will be popular items this season, as consumers will spend $2.2 billion on candy this year and 35.9 percent of people will be sending Halloween greeting cards.  With Americans planning to spend $2 billion on decorations for the frightful holiday, life-size ghosts, pumpkins and festive decor will be aplenty on lawns and doorsteps throughout the country.

Consumers will celebrate the holiday in many different ways, but topping the list of planned activities is handing out candy (71.1%), while others will decorate their homes and yards (46.7%), and dress in costume (45.8%).  One-third of Americans will throw or attend a party (33.4%), which is up from last year (30.9%).

Much like last year, consumers will hit the stores and the Internet early to get the first pick of costumes and candy.  According to the survey, nearly one-third of celebrants (32.1%) say they will start their Halloween shopping before the first of October.  And, while 43.3 percent of celebrants kick off their shopping in the first two weeks of October, one-quarter (24.6%) will wait until the last minute and shop the last two weeks of October.

While the bulk of Americans will look for costume inspiration online (34.2%) or in a retail store or costume shop (33%), Pinterest is a growing source of inspiration this year.  The survey found 11.4 percent of Americans will turn to Pinterest for costume ideas, up from 9.3 percent last year.  Young adults will drive the most Pinterest traffic:  21.2 percent of 18-24 year olds will turn to the popular site for ideas, as will 21.0 percent of 25-34 year olds.

"Social media is a great tool for consumers to find inspiration for all of their Halloween activities, including finding tips for decorating their homes and yards, looking for personal and even family costume ideas, and even finding the best deals from retailers," said Analyst Pam Goodfellow.  "As the popularity of Halloween continues to grow to unseen levels, there is no doubt that Americans this year will find ways to get in the spirit, looking for affordable, fun ways to celebrate with their families."

For some consumers, the U.S. economy is still top-of-mind.  According to the survey, 18.8 percent say the state of the U.S. economy will impact their Halloween spending plans.  Specifically, nearly two in five (19.7%) of those impacted will utilize their creative skills and make their own costumes rather than buying a new one this Halloween.

Source: National Retail Federation