HOLIDAY SHOPPING IS HERE …..ARE CONSUMERS WAITING UNTIL AFTER ELECTION RESULTS?

The National Retail Federation (NRF) conducted a survey last week, and found that more than 25% of shoppers say the election will affect their spending.  43% of consumers also state they are being more cautious with their spending because of election uncertainty.

Retailers are seeing this effect and are making adjustments. Target and Wal-Mart are adjusting their holiday season marketing ahead of November 8.

In addition, retailers are challenged to get their marketing messages out amid all of the election noise. “Everywhere you turn — whether you’re picking up a newspaper or watching television — political advertisements are taking up ad space that retailers typically use to get holiday shopping on the minds of consumers across the country,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.

Once November 9 rolls around, the NRF predicts the holiday shopping season will kick up. The NRF is still predicting a 3.6% increase in retail spending in November and December, which would make 2016 the most successful holiday shopping season in years. This forecast is in alignment with other predictions from Deloitte, RetailNext and Kantar retail, reports CNBC. This spike is expected regardless of who wins the presidency.

Source: WSJ, NRF, CNBC

WILL IT BE A HAPPY MOTHER’S DAY FOR RETAIL? WILL IT TOP 2015 RECORD-BREAKING TOTALS?

In 2015, 84.2% of American celebrated Mother’s Day, spending an average of $173 per person, totaling spend of $21.2 billion. This was the highest spending per person, up from $163 in 2014. Will 2016 be a strong year for retail Mother’s Day sales? Expectations are that Mother’s Day spending will be similar to last year’s record-breaking totals. 7,000 consumers surveyed by the NRF (National Retail Federation) said they will spend the most on jewelry, followed by outings (lunch/dinner/brunch), flowers and gift cards.

Department and Specialty stores had the highest retail traffic in Mother’s Day sales last year, followed closely by online sales and discount stores:

Source: Fundivo, MarketWatch

Q3 Earnings may be dim for some retailers, but the nrf states holiday shoppers are hitting the stores early this year

The National Retail Federation’s Consumer Holiday Spending Survey shows that 56.6% of holiday shoppers already started shopping by early November, up from 54.4% in 2014. 60% of shoppers still plan to purchase apparel or accessories, 46.2% will buy books/CDs/video games, 41.2% will buy toys and 21.8% will purchase jewelry. Over 50% of those surveyed felt that retailer promotions offered so far have been excellent or good.

“Thanksgiving weekend shopping has evolved tremendously over the past few years and can no longer be seen as the ‘start’ of the holiday season, though there’s no question it’s still important to millions of holiday shoppers and retailers of all shapes and sizes,” said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay. “There is a real sea change happening in retail when it comes to the how, when, where, and why of holiday shopping. Consumers today are looking for great prices and value-add promotions earlier than ever before, and retailers have answered these demands in several different ways already this holiday season.”

Many retailers are hopeful this trend will result in positive earnings results in Q4. Q3 earnings results for several retailers were lower than expected. Macy’s reported earnings of 56 cents per share, down from 61 cents a year ago. Revenue fell to $5.87 billion from $6.2 billion in 2014, the third-straight quarter of declining sales. Dillard’s and Nordstrom also experienced lower than expected results. For Dillard’s, weaker performing categories were men’s apparel, accessories and home, as they reported a 4% decrease in comp stores. Nordstrom sales grew in the third quarter but comp store sales only rose .9% missing the forecast of 3.6%. JC Penney, however, reported higher than expected results for Q3, stating that Sephora and home goods helped them be successful.

Sources: Chain Store Age, Wall Street Journal, Business Insider