WILL RETAILER DISCOUNTING HARM BRAND VALUE?

In an effort to get out of this year’s retail doldrums, department store retailers have been reducing prices on fashion brands they typically do not run promotions on. Promotions reached an all-time high in the last quarter, and in July over 2,000 emails advertising specials were sent to shoppers across the US. Some prices in May, June and July were reduced as much as 80%.

Luxury brands most heavily discounted included Michael Kors, Ralph Lauren and Eileen Fisher. Michael Kors is trying to rectify the situation by ending all coupons and friends-and-family sales at department stores. Ralph Lauren is reducing excess inventory. The brands hold the power with the ability to push sales in their own stores and online web sites.

How much are department stores discounting? Saks is leading with an average discount of 60%. Neiman Marcus’s average is around 50% and Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom are averaging 40% discounts. 

With massive discounting, consumers will expect these luxury brands to be available at the lower price points, bringing down the value of the brand.

Source: Bloomberg Pursuits, Chain Store Age

BACK TO SCHOOL AND COLLEGE SALES HELP RETAIL SUMMER SLUMP

Back to School sales helped raise retail sales by .3% over the previous week and 2.5% over one year ago, following a four-week decline in June into July. Expectations are that Back to School sales will rise another 2.5% from July through September, which will be a successful repeat of the 2015 season.

Discounters and wholesale clubs were the strongest contributors to the rise in sales last week, with focus on electronics, clothing, shoes and books. Back to School season is highly promotional as retailers clear inventory for the upcoming holiday season. The National Retail Federation expects total spending to reach $75.8 billion, up from $68 billion in 2015. 60.5% of consumers plan to shop in discount stores, followed by 59.6% shopping in department stores. This rising trend over 2015 is significant, as 2015 was a drop from 2014’s splurge year by consumers in the Back to School/Back to College season.

Source: WWD.com, NRF

JUNE RETAIL SALES LOOK GOOD FOR DEPARTMENT STORES

Department stores and general merchandise stores helped June have a strong increase in retail sales. Department stores rose .7% to $13.2 billion and general merchandise stores rose .4% to $56.1 billion. Overall, retail sales rose .6% in June, to $457 billion, above economists’ expectations for the month.

“June’s retail sales grew at a solid pace on the heels of a strong showing for both May and April,” said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Retail Federation. “Consumer spending has rebounded strongly in the second quarter after two weak previous quarters. Additional job gains and rising wages are supporting the strength in retail sales and should provide momentum going into the second half of 2016.”

Apparel and accessories stores had a slight decline of a 1% drop in sales to $21.1 billion. Those clothing stores did have a strong May.

Economists are optimistic for a continued strong second half of the year, and expect back to school sales growth slightly higher than was seen last year.

Source: WWD.COM

TOP RETAIL BRANDS OF THE YEAR ANNOUNCED

The 2016 Harris Poll EquiTrend Retail Brands of the Year study results were announced, with several retailers getting high points for engaging customers. For the fourth straight year, 2 brands took top honors in their segment categories: The Home Depot for hardware and home brand of the year, and Kohls.com as online department store of the year.

Other top winners included Macy’s as department store of the year, Nordstrom as luxury department store of the year, TJ Maxx as off-price retailer of the year, Best Buy as electronics store of the year, DSW shoes as discount shoe store of the year and Cabela’s as sporting goods store of the year.

Within retail, hardware and home store was the top ranked category, with baby boomers and GenX shoppers driving that, investing in home improvements and moving up from starter homes. 

Over 97,000 US consumers rated more than 200 retail brands for the survey. The scores take into account familiarity, quality and purchase consideration.

Source: Chain Store Age

Macy's Set to Unveil New Store Design

Retail giant Macy’s is set to debut a new store design at its remodeled location in Easton Town Center in Columbus, OH later this month. According to a report by The Columbus Dispatch, construction began on March 27th – with work taking place as the store stayed open – and the new store design prototype will be introduced on June 25th.

Everything from the lights to the flooring, fixtures and merchandise itself will be new. The model features “lifestyle” departments and leased businesses, a concept that recently gained attention when JC Penney tried it. For example, the new Restore, Nourish and Strengthen Department includes footwear from Finish Line, various brands of athletic apparel, Gaiam Yoga merchandise, Fitbit watches and a Berry Blendz full-service juice and smoothie bar.

“This is the new way Macy’s is looking at the customer,” said Andrea Schwartz, vice president of media relations and cause marketing.

Macy’s is hiring 117 additional employees at the Easton store to support several new initiatives and is counting on its heightened focus on customer service to make the physical changes to the store successful. One example is the Connect @Macy’s kiosk which will offer one-on-one service to customers as soon as they walk into the store. Additionally, Macy’s will offer a free personal-shopper service called My Stylist @Macy’s.

So far the Easton store is the only prototype.

Source: The Columbus Dispatch

APRIL RETAIL SALES REBOUND. WILL RETAILER STOCKS RECOVER?

Wall Street analysts are calling last week “Retail Wreck” due to numerous retailers’ news of poor sales, profits and future outlook on consumer spending. April retail sales came in higher than expected with a positive 1.3% gain, the highest gain in a year. Will strong sales in the first month of the second quarter help with a stock rebound for retailers?

Last week’s poor results were reported by many retailers, including Macy’s, Kohl’s and Nordstrom’s. Department stores are also responding to the strong online sales versus in-store that was reported, with online sales soaring 10.2% over last year. They are struggling with putting inventory in the right place to meet their increasingly complicated inventory and distribution demands.

Investors are waiting for home-improvement results this week from Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target and Wal-Mart to try to determine if the profit misses in the retail space is a problem just for department stores and apparel makers, or if it is a broader problem ahead for the consumer-driven US economy.

See the Accelerated Analytics’ blog from last week, reporting on the stock decreases across several retailers and apparel manufacturers: http://www.acceleratedanalytics.com/blog/2016/5/12/retail-stock-market-was-a-bear-yesterday-dropping-to-worst-l.html and continue to monitor our blog http://www.acceleratedanalytics.com/blog/ page this week as additional retailers report on Q1 results.

Sources: The Wall Street Journal, USA Today

WILL IT BE A HAPPY MOTHER’S DAY FOR RETAIL? WILL IT TOP 2015 RECORD-BREAKING TOTALS?

In 2015, 84.2% of American celebrated Mother’s Day, spending an average of $173 per person, totaling spend of $21.2 billion. This was the highest spending per person, up from $163 in 2014. Will 2016 be a strong year for retail Mother’s Day sales? Expectations are that Mother’s Day spending will be similar to last year’s record-breaking totals. 7,000 consumers surveyed by the NRF (National Retail Federation) said they will spend the most on jewelry, followed by outings (lunch/dinner/brunch), flowers and gift cards.

Department and Specialty stores had the highest retail traffic in Mother’s Day sales last year, followed closely by online sales and discount stores:

Source: Fundivo, MarketWatch

Study Shows Department Stores Should Close Locations to Restore Productivity

According to new research by Green Street Advisors, department stores need to close hundreds of locations to recapture the level of productivity they had a decade ago in 2006. The real-estate research firm estimates that approximately a fifth of all anchor space in U.S. malls, or roughly 800 stores, could be a part of the closures.

As retail business has shifted to discounters or online merchants like Amazon.com in recent years, many large retailers have closed locations. Sears recently said it would close 78 stores including 68 Kmarts this summer as part of a plan that was announced in February. But according to Green Street, Sear would need to close 300 or 43% of its stores to regain the sales per square foot that it had in 2006.

To return to 2006 productivity levels, Green Street estimates that JC Penney would need to close 320 stores (31%), Nordstrom Inc. would need to close 30 stores (25%) and Macy’s, which closed 40 stores last year, would need eliminate an additional 70 stores (9%). 

Sales at U.S. department stores averaged $165 per square foot in 2015 which represents a 24% drop since 2006. But stores only reduced their physical footprint by a total of 7% over the same time period.

“Department stores used to be a great catchall for different brands, but today many of the brands have stores of their own, and shoppers can also find them online,” said DJ Busch, a senior Green Street analyst.

The stores have declined to comment on the Green Street Report, but have indicated that closing a large number of stores isn’t the right strategy to improve productivity in today’s dynamic retail market.

“There’s a misperception out there that when we close a store, that business transfers online,” Ed Record, Penney’s chief financial officer, told analysts in November. “When we close a store, particularly in a small market, we see our dot-com business go down.”

Macy’s has attempted to lure shoppers into their stores by adding Bluemercury beauty shops and Backstage discount stores to it’s department stores, and a spokesman for Nordstrom said that all of its stores are profitable, and closing stores “is not our normal practice.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal

RETAIL SALES FALL UNEXPECTEDLY IN MARCH

Although economists projected a 0.1% gain in retail spending in March, sales fell 0.3%. Of the 13 retail segments tracked, 9 of the 13 saw spending growth, but 3 categories dropped significantly enough to create the loss: autos, clothing and dining out. Sales decreased 0.9% at clothing chains, the biggest loss since October.

The labor market is robust, so the trend of less spending comes as a surprise. The value of sales is also being hurt by low prices, as retailers are offering discounts to clear unwanted merchandise in their warehouses. Sales at online retailers dropped 0.1%.

Of the 9 categories that saw increased spending, sporting goods and hobby stores rose 0.2% and electronics and appliance outlets rose 0.1%. Building materials and garden equipment stores increased the most, up 1.4%.

Source: Bloomberg, CNBC

DILLARD’S SALES AND PROFITS DROP IN Q4 2015

Dillard’s announced a 35.6% drop in fourth quarter profit. For the period ending January 30, revenue was $2.07 billion for the fourth quarter, down from $2.1 billion a year ago. Same store sales declined 2%. In 2015, Dillard’s opened three new stores in Murray, UT, Slidell, LA and Cincinnati, OH. They also closed two clearance stores. The Southern retailer also announced the upcoming closure of their Aiken, SC location in Q1 of this year. As of now, Dillard’s operated 273 stores and 24 clearance centers over 29 states.

"The fourth quarter was difficult. As sales came in less than planned, we worked hard to control our inventory during an unusually competitive environment," said Dillard’s CEO William T. Dillard II. "Sales were particularly weak on the Southern border and in the energy producing regions. Higher markdowns affected gross margin, but we did the right thing as we move on to 2016.”

Source: Retailing Today

NRF SURVEY REVEALS INVENTORY SHRINK IS A $44 BILLION PROBLEM FOR RETAILERS

Inventory shrink, or the loss of product due to shoplifting, employee and vendor theft and administrative errors, costs retailers billions of dollars. The NRF and the University of Florida provided survey results this week stating that in 2014 inventory shrink averaged 1.38% of retail sales, or $44 billion.

Shoplifting accounted for 38% of the loss, followed by 34.5% in employee theft. The rest consisted of 16.5% administrative errors, 6.8% vendor fraud or error and 6.1% unknown loss.

While grocery chains have the highest shrink rate, home center/hardware/lumber/garden reported average shrinkage of 1.09%.

Tracking inventory effectively is key to managing shrink. Actual and accurate inventory counts eliminates the over/under counting in the results. Verifying product delivered is what was ordered and is accurately described in systems is also paramount – if an expected-sized item was not available, and the vendor ships a different size, but that difference is not noted, a retailer can end up with a surplus of one size, a shortage of another, and a dent in their inventory valuation. Inventory measurements should be looked at in both units and dollars. A retailer could be 99.5% accurate in dollars but only 94% accurate in units.

Shrink-related data is stored in different applications such as POS/point of sale, inventory, receiving and store applications. Having the ability to obtain reports that combine point of sale and inventory data in a timely fashion is imperative to take action quickly before the data becomes outdated.

Accelerated Analytics is a comprehensive service for collecting, analyzing and reporting on POS point of sale and inventory data, to increase sales, optimize inventory, recognize inventory shrink and respond faster to this information.

Source: Chain Store Age, ProSales

NRF ANNOUNCES AMERICANS ARE POISED TO SPEND THIS EASTER

The National Retail Federation released its 2015 Easter Spending Survey, gauging consumer behavior and shopping trends leading to the holiday. The report finds that the average person celebrating Easter will spend $140.62, over 2014’s $137.46 average spend. Total spending is expected to reach $16.4 billion.

“Easter will be the perfect segue into spring for both consumers and retailers who have longed for warmer weather for quite some time,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “As one of the busiest times of year for several retail sectors and as shelves begin filling with both traditional spring and holiday merchandise, retailers are looking forward to welcoming shoppers with attractive promotions on home goods, garden equipment and traditional Easter items.”

The survey found that 45% of those celebrating will purchase clothing, spending more than $2.9 billion. They will also spend $2.4 billion on gifts, $1.1 billion on flowers, $998 million on decorations and $695 million on greeting cards.

58% plan to spend at discount stores, while 41% will shop at department stores. Additionally, 21.8% will shop at a specialty store and 18.8% will shop online.

Source: Retailing Today