CONGRATULATIONS 2016 GRADUATES! GRAD GIFT SPEND HIGHEST IN 10 YEARS!

The National Retail Federation (NRF) reports that 2016 graduation spending will reach a 10-year high this year, with spending expected to reach $5.4 billion. Americans celebrating high school and college graduations give special gifts, and retailers are offering a lot of options for the best gifts possible. Retailers will need to keep graduation gift items up front and in stock, and advertise locally for shoppers who look online before going shopping.

NRF’s 2016 Graduation Spending Survey revealed the average person buying graduation gifts will spend $106.45, up 3.9% from last year. Each individual graduate should not get too excited, though – the average shopper is buying for 2 graduates this year, so the spend is higher but spread out among more recipients.

Not helping retailers is the fact that cash is the most popular gift, given by 56%. Greeting cards, with the cash inside, will make up 39% of spend. This is followed by gift cards at 31%, clothing at 14% and electronics at 11%.

While the amount of spend averages $106.45, the age group of the gift giver makes a difference. Spending by those aged 45-54 will average $120.74, compared with $78.08 from those 18-24.

Source: NRF.com 

WILL IT BE A HAPPY MOTHER’S DAY FOR RETAIL? WILL IT TOP 2015 RECORD-BREAKING TOTALS?

In 2015, 84.2% of American celebrated Mother’s Day, spending an average of $173 per person, totaling spend of $21.2 billion. This was the highest spending per person, up from $163 in 2014. Will 2016 be a strong year for retail Mother’s Day sales? Expectations are that Mother’s Day spending will be similar to last year’s record-breaking totals. 7,000 consumers surveyed by the NRF (National Retail Federation) said they will spend the most on jewelry, followed by outings (lunch/dinner/brunch), flowers and gift cards.

Department and Specialty stores had the highest retail traffic in Mother’s Day sales last year, followed closely by online sales and discount stores:

Source: Fundivo, MarketWatch

NRF SAYS MILLENNIALS WILL SAVE THEIR TAX REFUNDS INSTEAD OF SPLURGING ON RETAIL

Retailers have depended on American’s using their IRS tax refund checks to boost February and March sales. However, according to a survey conducted by the National Retail Federation (NRF), more than half of those expecting a refund are planning to save their money instead of spend it. This is the highest level since the NRF has begun conducting the survey.

Millennials, ages 18 to 24, show 57.3% planning to save and 27.4% planning to spend their refunds on everyday purchases like gas or groceries. In the 25 to 34 year old bracket, 52.3% plan to save and 45% plan to repay debt.

In addition to saving, 22.4% of Americans will save their refunds while 11.4% will plan a vacation. “Consumers are building their spending power and boosting their confidence as they set aside their checks from Uncle Sam,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Americans this year see refund season as a time to improve their financial health by using their refunds to get ahead on savings goals and plan for bigger purchases in the future. Money saved is money waiting to be spent.”

As refund checks start to get into Amercan’s hands, it will remain to be seen if this holds true for future retail spending and whether they will actually save the money or decide to shop instead.

Source: Chain Store Age

Cool Start to Retail Spending Predicted in January

With many Americans suffering from a holiday-spending hangover, it’s not surprising when we see a lull in spending in January. Coupled with abnormal weather conditions across the country and an uncertain economy, consumer spending is likely off to a slow start this month.

The Chain Store Guide (CSG) Retail Spending Index saw its largest decrease since July of 2015 when it dropped 1.4 points to 101.3 in December. This decline led CHG to forecast low spending in January and an overall slow start to 2016.

The long-term outlook for 2016 is more positive, according Kiplinger’s. They predict that retail sales will expand by a healthy 4.4% in 2016, up from 2015’s 3.2% growth.

September Consumer Spending Index Improves While Retail Spending Index Decreases Slightly for the Month

The Consumer Spending Report US Spending Index increased 1.7 points in September. 28.7% of adults surveyed rated the US economy as excellent and 30.3% said it is getting better. There was a divide between Democrats and Republicans: 56% of Republicans felt the economy is getting worse, while Democrats had a much higher percentage believing the economy is excellent or getting better. While in most months adults aged 40-64 rate the economy and personal finances low, this month this age group had the highest percentage of respondents believing their finances are excellent.

The Retail Spending Index decreased 0.9 points. The percentage of adults that expected to spend on household expenses declined, with only 10% saying they expect to spend more. 51.2% responded they spent the same as the previous month. The outlook for next month appears to also remain flat.

Source: Chain Store Guide

US Consumer Spending and Retail Spending Decline in July

US consumer confidence declined 5.3 points in July, dropping to the lowest point since November 2014. The majority of those surveyed, 70.8%, believe the economy is fair or poor, and 41.4% believe it is getting worse. The perception of personal finances remained stagnant, a greater percentage this month felt finances were getting worse. 47.2% report they do not expect added expenses or a shortfall in the next 30 days and 36.8% believe that they will.

Retail spending also decreased in July, down to the lowest level since January. Household improvements still has the largest percentage of adults that say they will spend more this month with 19.8%, but this percentage was 22.9% last month. While spending in household improvements and discretionary spending has gone down, expected spending on clothing, footwear, or accessories, and household expenses has gone up. Change in August is not expected, as 46.8% reported expecting to spend about the same amount next month.

Source: Chain Store Age

JUNE CONSUMER SPENDING REPORT SHOWS OVERALL DECREASE BUT HOME IMPROVEMENT SPENDING IS STRONG

The US Consumer Spending Index increased 0.4 points in June. The percentage of consumers who rate the economy as excellent or good has continued to increase each month, at 30.9%, though is much lower than the 68% who felt the economy is fair or poor. When asked if personal finances were getting better or worse, 30.7% answered better, 33.1% answered worse and 35.2% answered the same.

The Retail Spending Index decreased 0.5 points in June. Expected spending for July slightly decreased in every category except discretionary personal entertainment expenses, which increased to 14.9% in June versus 13.7% in May. The category with the largest percentage of expected spending was household improvements at 22.9%. Expectations are that spending next month will remain about the same as 51.3% expect to spend the same. However, 28.2% say they will spend more in July, the majority being adults with children.

Source: Chain Store Guide

BACK TO SCHOOL SHOPPING EXPECTED TO RISE THIS YEAR

A Consumer Pulse survey of parents of K-12 and college students found that 56% of respondents plan to spend more money per child this year on back-to-school supplies.

K-12 parents plan to spend an average of $873 per student, while parents of college students plan to spend more than $1,100 per student. 38% of parents intend to purchase technology products, on average spending $400 compared to $278 on apparel. Technology products are needed as student use of technology in the classroom increases, requiring parents to buy laptops, tablets and mobile phones.

61% of those surveyed said store sales and promotions will be the main determinant of when and where they will do their back-to-school shopping.  74% of parents said they prefer to shop at big box retailers or chains to get a better deal.

Online shopping and mobile shopping are increasing with parents. 50% of the parents had clicked on an online ad in the past 7 days and 48% had clicked on a mobile ad. Over 40% of parents stated they made a purchase within the past week based on a mobile or online ad.

Source: Retailing Today

MAY CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX FALLS TO 88.6

Data released Friday indicates consumers are more skeptical about the economy. May sentiment unexpectedly fell to 88.6, down from 95.9 in April and an 11-year high in January of 98.1.  Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal projected the May index would stand at 95.5.

"Confidence fell in early May as consumers became increasingly convinced that there would be no quick and robust rebound following the dismal (first) quarter" even if the underperformance was exaggerated by inadequate seasonal adjustments, said Richard Curtin, chief economist at Michigan's Survey of Consumers that compiles the sentiment index.

So far this year, consumers have not rushed to increase spending. Retail sales were flat in April. The one-year inflation expectations are now 2.9%, up from 2.6% in April. Consumers have chosen to save money or pay down debt.

Source: Fox Business.com

SLUGGISH US CONSUMER SPENDING START TO 2015

January US consumer spending barely rose .1 percent, despite cheaper gasoline and a buoyant labor market. Economists are speculating that consumers were using their extra income to pay down debt and boost savings. This was below Wall Street’s expectations for a .4 percent increase.

"Should we be worried about the weakness of underlying sales over the past two months? Possibly," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.

"But all the conditions are in place for a period of very strong consumption growth. We still expect to see that strength come through in the retail sales data soon."

The economy has added more than a million jobs in the past three months and the number of those seeking jobs hit its lowest level since 2007 in December.

Resource: Reuters

Super Bowl Spending Expected To Reach $14.3 Billion

January 22, 2015

184 Million Americans To Watch 2015 Super Bowl, According To NRF Survey

The most widely watched sporting event of the year will draw an estimated 184 million viewers, for Super Bowl XLIX on Sunday, February 1.  Average viewer spending will reach a survey high of $77.88, up from $68.27 last year, with fans planning to splurge on everything from game day food and new televisions to athletic wear and decorations.  Total spending is expected to reach $14.3 billion.

"With renewed confidence in the economy and the outlook for 2015, consumers are looking forward to some good old-fashioned fun with their friends and family to celebrate the big game," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "Retailers will take full advantage of the expected traffic from avid fans by making sure they have adequately invested in decor, party food and accessories and other Super Bowl related inventory."

Of the 75.8 percent planning to watch the game, nearly eight in 10 (79.3%) will purchase food and beverages, 10.8 percent will buy team apparel or accessories and 8.8 percent will splurge on new televisions to watch the game at home.

Source: National Retail Federation

Cupid To Shower Americans With Jewelry, Candy This Valentine's Day

January 26, 2015

Cupid has some tricks up his sleeve this year with plans to shower Americans with jewelry, candy and a special night out.  According to the National Federation's Valentine's Day Consumer Spending Survey, the average person celebrating Valentine's Day will spend $142.31 on candy, flowers, apparel and more, up from $133.91 last year.  Total spending is expected to reach $18.9 billion, a survey high.

"It's encouraging to see consumers show interest in spending on gifts and Valentine's Day related merchandise - a good sign for consumer sentiment as we head into 2015," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "Hoping to draw in eager shoppers, retailers will offer unique promotions on gifts, meal options at restaurants and even experiences."

While most (53.2%) plan to buy candy for the sweet holiday, spending a total of $1.7 billion, one in five (21.1%) plans to buy jewelry for a total of $4.8 billion, the highest amount seen since NRF began tracking spending on Valentine's gifts in 2010.

Additionally, 37.8 percent will buy flowers, spending a total of $2.1 billion, and more than one-third (35.1%) will spend on plans for a special night out, indlucing movies and restaurants, totaling $3.6 billion.  Celebrants will also spend nearly $2 billion on clothing and $1.5 billion on the gift that keeps on giving: gift cards.

The survey found nine in 10 (91%) plan to treat their significant others/spouses to something special for the consumer holiday, with plans to spend an average of $87.94 on them, up from $78.09 last year.  Additionally, 58.7 percent will spend an average of $26.26 on other family members and $6.30 on average - which equates to a whopping $703 million on pint-sized gifts of all varieties.

"It's great to see consumers coming out of their shell this year, looking to spend discretionary budgets on those they love once again, though I fully expect many to continue to look for ways to cut costs where they can.  While many will splurge, some will still look for simple and affordable ways to show their appreciation for friends and family and celebrate in a way they are most comfortable with."

Discount (35.2%) and department stores (36.5%) will be among the most visited locations for those looking for the perfect Valentine's Day gift, as will specialty stores (19.4%) and florists (18.7%).  One-quarter (25.1%) say they will shop online and 13.3 percent will shop at a local or small business to find something unique for their loved one.

It seems women are in for the biggest treat this Valentine's Day.  Men will spend nearly double what women plan to spend ($190.53 versus $96.58 on average, respectively.)  Additionally, adults 25 to 34 will outspend other age groups at an average of $213.04; 35 to 44 year olds will spend an average of $176.21 and 18 to 24 year olds will spend an average of $168.95.

Source: National Retail Federation

Early Holiday Promotions Help Put Shoppers Ahead On Their Shopping Lists

December 17, 2014

Half of Consumers Polled Will Wrap Up Christmas Shopping Online

For millions of Americans the rush to find the perfect gift started early this year, and according to the National Retail Federation's latest Holiday Consumer Spending Survey, the average holiday shopper has completed 52.9 percent of their shopping as of December 10, up from 49.9 percent last year.

"This year we witnessed 'a tale of two holiday shoppers' with many jumping on retailers' early, hard-to-pass-up in-store promotions, and others waiting until the last minute to wrap up their lists," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "In the final stretch, retailers will continue to look for creative ways to attract those with shopping left to do by offering exclusive Super Saturday promotions, extending their in-store holiday hours and promoting deals on expedited shipping.  We are optimistic the holiday season will end on a high note for retailers."

For the first time, NRF asked those who had completed less than half (50%) of their shopping why they have chosen to wait until December to wrap up their shopping.  The survey found that nearly half (46.8%) said they waited this year because they were still trying to decide what to buy, nearly three in 10 (28.4%) said they are waiting for input from their family and friends, and another 28.4 percent said they are waiting for the best deals on holiday merchandise.

When it comes to where people will do the remainder of their shopping, the survey found nearly half (49.1%) of holiday shoppers will shop online; two in five (44.3%) will shop at department stores, 30.1 percent will head to discount stores, 22 percent will visit clothing stores and 19.3 percent will shop at electronics stores.

NRF also asked holiday shoppers about their use of price matching this holiday season.  According to the survey, 15.6 percent said they have requested a price match from a retailer.  However, broken out by age it is clear that young adults have taken advantage of this service: nearly three in 10 (27.9%) 18-24 year olds say they have requested a price match from a retailer this holiday season; one in five (21.8%) 25-34 year olds and 18 percent of 35-44 year olds have also asked for a price match.

Christmas Day activities run the gamut for holiday celebrants, however, most say they will spend the day visiting with family and friends (66.2%).  Another 59.6 percent say they will open gifts on Christmas Day, and 48.8 percent will cook a holiday meal.  When not opening gifts or visiting with friends and family, one in five (22.2%) will browse the web and just 7.4 percent plan to actually shop online on Christmas Day.

While there's plently of shopping left to do, nearly one-third (32.8%) plan to buy their last holiday gift before Thursday, December 18; 14.5 percent will look to Super Saturday (Saturday, December 20) to purchase their last gift, and 9.1% will wait until the very last minute and buy their last gift on Christmas Eve.  Additionally, more men than women will wait until Christmas Eve to purchase the last gift (10.5% versus 7.9% respectively).

"Though millions of eager consumers jumped on early holiday promotions, there is still plenty of shopping left to do.  Hurried last-minute shoppers will look for gift cards, clothing items, toys and other popular gifts from a variety of retailers, likely even hoping to win big with expedited shipping deals and extremely low prices online and in stores."

Source: National Retail Federation

Sales, Traffic Decline Thanksgiving Weekend

December 1, 2014

Fewer Americans shopped and they spent less money during the Thanksgiving weekend, according to new estimates from the National Retail Federation.

Early holiday promotions, the continued growth of online shopping, and an improving economy changed the way millions of people approached the biggest shopping weekend of the year, according to NRF's Thanksgiving Weekend Spending Survey.  More than half of Americans shopped in stores or online (55.1 percent) but that was less than the prior year when 58.7 percent of Americans shopped.  Overall shopper traffic from Thanksgiving Day through Sunday, November 30 declined 5.2 percent to 133.7 million unique holiday shoppers versus 141.1 million in 2013.  Total shopping, including multiple trips by the same shopper, declined to 233.3 million trips versus 248.6 million.

"A strengthening economy that changes consumers' reliance on deep discounts, a highly competitive environment, early promotions and the ability to shop 24/7 online all contributed to the shift witnessed this weekend," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "We are excited to be witnessing an evolutionary change in holiday shopping by both consumers and retailers, and expect this trend to continue in the years ahead."

According to the survey, the average person who shopped or will shop the holiday weekend spent $380.95, down 6.4 percent from $407.02 last year.  Total spending is expected to reach $50.9 billion, down from last year's estimated $57.4 billion.

Though the overall number of shoppers dropped this year, it remains clear that Black Friday still draws the biggest crowds of the weekend.  According to the survey 86.9 million shoppers were in stores and online on Black Friday while 43.1 million shopped on Thanksgiving Day.  Online shopping appears to have eroded store traffic, but also declined.  According to the survey the average person who shopped over the weekend spent $159.55 online, approximately 41.9 percent of their total average budget, down 10.2 percent from $177.67 last year.  Most shoppers say they shopped online on Black Friday (46.7%), though 36.3 percent say they shopped online on Saturday.  Additionally more than one-quarter (26.2%) of holiday shoppers were online on Thanksgiving Day.

"Though much shopping has been done by this point, it's important to remember that there are still many weeks left in the holiday season, and savvy shoppers will continue to look for exclusive prices to purchase holiday gifts.  As competition for customer dollars heats up, consumers will be the ultimate winners in the end.  Shoppers this year have made it clear that they no longer only value deep discounts on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, they want the entire package from beginning to end - free shipping, early promotions, convenient ways to use their mobile devices, and, of course, hard-to-beat online deals."

Source: Retailing Today 

Thanksgiving Weekend Shopping, By The Numbers

November, 2014

The biggest shopping weekend of the year is only days away and retailers are gearing up for another Thanksgiving weekend of holiday shopping and promotions.

Since the recession, retailers competing for shopping dollars and market share have had to rethink tried-and-true holiday marketing strategies.  Good prices, great value, unique product assortment and convenience are just a few of the aspects that contribute to happy holiday shopping experiences.

Some companies are generating buzz and responding to consumer demands by opening on Thanksgiving Day, while others look to promote their brand by resisting early openings on Thursday.

Here's a look at key numbers from Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday in 2013:

• 44.8 million: Consumers who shopped on Thanksgiving Day, up 27 percent from 2012.
• 92.1 million: Consumers who shopped on Black Friday in 2013.
• $407: Average amount spent by holiday shoppers from Thanksgiving Day to Sunday, down 4 percent from 2012.
• 248.7 million: Number of shoppers who were in stores and online over Thanksgiving weekend in 2013, up 0.5 percent over the previous year.
• 4.9 percent: Portion of holiday shopprs who were at stores by 5pm on Thanksgiving Day.
• 37 percent: Portion of holiday shoppers who were at stores by 12:01am on Black Friday, up from 28 percent in 2012.
• 64 percent: Portion of holiday shoppers who went out on Thanksgiving Day or visited stores by 10am on Black Friday.
• 45 percent: The amount of holiday shopping the average consumer had completed by the Sunday after Thanksgiving, up from 42 percent in 2012.

With more than $50 billion in sales on the line for just a single weekend during retail's most competitive season, retailers will be looking for ways to wow their customers.  It's too soon to say if the Thanksgiving Day shopping trend will fade or if the buzz will build in 2015, but this year, we're betting on another strong turnout.

Source: National Retail Federation

140 Million Holiday Shoppers Likely To Take Advantage Of Thanksgiving Weekend Deals

November 20, 2014

Americans are readying for the upcoming Thanksgiving weekend by making sure they have a menu for their family gathering and a complete shopping list for their weekend shopping activities.  According to NRF's Thanksgiving Weekend Expectations survey, which provides a preliminary look at shopping expectations over Thanksgiving weekend, six in 10 (61.1%) say they will or may shop either Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday, which equates to more than 140.1 million unique shoppers.  Expectations are similar to last year's preliminary survey results of 140.3 million.

Specifically, 67.6 million holiday shoppers (29.5%) say they will shop, down slightly from 69.4 million who planned to do so last year, and 72.5 million (31.6%) say they will wait and see if the deals are worth it before they decide, up 2 percent over last year's 71 million "maybe" shoppers.

"Consumers today want more than just the discounts they've been showered with since the start of the recession; they want exclusive offerings and a good reason to spend their discretionary budgets," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "We could witness a see change this holiday season as consumers' reliance on extremely deep discounts over the biggest shopping weekend of the year shifts to more of a 'wait-and-see' mentality around what retailers will be offering on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.  We are positive retailers have a few tricks up their sleeve that will draw their customers to their stores and websites, deciding the deals are worth it after all."

When it comes to preliminary expectations for when people will shop, of the 61.1 percent who will or may shop in stores and online over the weekend, 18.3 percent (25.6 million) say they will check out retailers' Thanksgiving Day deals and shop Thursday, down from the preliminary 23.5 percent last year; 74 percent of those who plan to shop on Thanksgiving Day say they shopped on Thanksgiving Day last year.

Additionally, more than two-thirds (68.2%) will shop on Black Friday (95.5 million), two in five (42.9%) will shop on Saturday (60 million) and one in five (21.6%) will shop on Sunday (30.3 million).

For the first time NRF asked shoppers about their intentions to shop on Small Business Saturday.  The survey found of those shopping on Saturday, nearly three-quarters (72.7%) say they will or may specifically shop for Small Business Saturday.

"More than just a shopping day, Small Business Saturday highlights the millions of entrepreneurs and visionaries who help make retail the dynamic and community-focused industry that it is," continued Shay.

Much talk has surfaced in the last few years over the number of young adults who shop on Thanksgiving, and this year millennials are indicating they are once again anxious to take advantage of what retailers have to offer.  According to the survey nearly eight in 10 (79.6%) 18-24 year olds will or may shop over the weekend, the highest of any age group.  Specifically, nearly one-quarter (22.6%) will shop on Thanksgiving Day, down slightly from 27.8 percent last year and 79.9 percent will shop on Black Friday, up from 71.5 percent who planned to do so last year.  Nearly three-quarters (73.2%) of 18-24 year olds say they shopped on Thanksgiving last year.

"For younger shoppers, shopping on Thanksgiving and Black Friday is as much a social experience as it is a buying mission.  While these shoppers may not have the biggest holiday budgets or the longest shopping lists, they still enjoy the 'tradition' of heading out with friends and family on two of retail's most exciting shopping days."

Source: National Retail Federation 

Holiday Shoppers To Spend More Than $31 Billion On Gift Cards This Year

November 13, 2014

The growth in gift card popularity is irrefutable, and this holiday season spending on tiny plastic or digital gift cards will top all previous records.  According to NRF's Gift Card Spending Survey, the average person buying gift cards will spend $172.74, up from $163 last year.  Total spending is expected to reach $31.74 billion.  In an October NRF survey, 62 percent of shoppers said they would like to receive a gift card, making gift cards the most requested gift item eight years in a row.

"No longer impersonal or only about convenience, gift cards have become the perfect, practical gift item for millions of holiday shoppers," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "And, as the most requested gift item for eight years in a row, we're sure there will be plenty of happy individuals this holiday season who can look forward to treating themselves to something shiny and new come January when retailers start to offer promotions on fresh new merchandise."

According to the survey, shoppers will spend an average of $47.87, up from $45.16 last year.  Total spending on gift cards has increased 83 percent since NRF began tracking consumers' intentions to buy gift cards as holiday gifts in 2003.

Gift cards are a go-to gift for consumers of all ages; the survey found adults 65+ will spend the most on gift cards at an average of $204.59.  Young adults between 18-24 years old will spend the least at an average of $113.75.  Additionally, men plan to spend significantly more than women on gift cards ($180.81 vs. $165.09 respectively).

"These days, shoppers simply love the idea of gifting someone they care about with a little 'free money' in the form of a gift card.  Consumers young and old want to find the best way possible to create a happy holiday experience for their loved ones, and gift cards are a great option every time."

There are a plethora of options for shoppers when it comes to what type of card to get, and it is clear department stores, restaurants and coffee shops are among the most popular choice for gift givers.  According to the survey 37.7 percent of gift card buyers will give their loved ones a gift card from a department store, and 34 percent will give their friends and family the gift of a meal at a restaurant.  One in five (20.6%) will pick up coffee shop gift cards, 18.1 percent will give the gift of entertainment, such as a movie theatre gift card, and 18.9 percent will give gift cards to electronics stores.

Source: National Retail Federation

Lower Gas Prices Won't Ensure Happy Holiday

October 30, 2014

Retailers are in for a "humbling holiday" with a 3.4% overall increase in sales and a deceleration in e-commerce growth, according to a new forecast from retail industry consulting and research firm Customer Growth Partners.

In the 14th annual holiday forecast, the 3.4% increase in sales is well below projections of others, most notably the National Retail Federation, which has holiday sales advancing 4.1%.  E-commerce/direct-to-consumer sales will continue to decelerate, after two decades of robust double-digit growth, to just under 7% for holiday 2014.  Craig Johnson, president, said his pessimism is due to a difference of opinion over the biggest drivers of sales.

"Contrary to much conventional wisdom the single best predictor of retail sales is neither gasoline prices, the unemployment rate or consumer confidence, but growth in disposable income," Johnson said.  "And the fact is that real median incomes have flatlined, if not declined, for many years now."

If the 3.4% growth rate proves accurate, Johnson said it will be the third straight year of dismal retail spending following a 5% pace of growth in 2010 and 2011.  Overall retail sales for the November through December holiday period will reach $590 billion.  While that is a new record, the anemic 3.4% growth rate only marginally exceeds 2013's 2.9% pace, and reflects declining median incomes for all but the top 10% of households, according to Johnson.

In addition to the impact of lagging income growth on spending, Johnson believes the declining share of the population with full-time jobs will also have an impact.  Only 48% of the working age population now holds a full-time job, the lowest in decades, and down from 54% as recently as 2006, according to Johnson.

"The shift to a 'part-time economy' has caused spending to rotate from discretionary goods to non-discretionary goods.  Consumers with full-time jobs spend against both needs and wants, but those with part-time jobs spend only against needs."

Another headwind this year relates to a sharp price increase for food which accounts for some 15% of spending for moderate and lower income households.  Food price increases far outweigh this fall's savings on gasoline costs, which comprises barely 4% of household budgets, according to Johnson.

Lastly, recurring monthly obligations, from cellphone and cable bills to record-high student loans are commanding a growing portion of disposable income, curbing potential gift giving.

Among merchandise categories, health and personal care stores will outpace other sectors with strong 6.3% growth while apparel sales will lag the already sluggish overall growth pace, with growth of only 2.4%.  Department stores will struggle again this year, both with the weak apparel sales and softening demand for the once white-hot handbag category, and will see essentially zero growth while consumer electronics will rebound strongly, with growth exceeding 4%, according to Johnson's forecast.

"Holiday shoppers in 2014 remain very cautious in their spending, and will be relentless in seeking out value," Johnson said.  "But retailers dependent on healthy discretionary spending will find this another challenging holiday, particularly those who placed holiday orders last May, when sales were still healthy.  Holiday 2014 will be a marginal improvement from last year, but until real income growth resumes, Santa will be hard-pressed to fill the Christmas stockings for either consumers or retailers."

Source: Retailing Today 

Spooky And Scary Alike, Record Number Of Americans To Buy Halloween Costumes This Year

September 24, 2014

More costumes than ever will be flying off the shelves as Americans gear up to celebrate the spookiest holiday of the year, according to NRF's Halloween Consumer Spending Survey.  More than two-thirds (67.4%) of celebrants will buy Halloween costumes for the holiday, the most in the survey's 11 year history.  The average person will spend $77.52 this Halloween, compared to $75.03 last year.  Total spending on Halloween this year will reach $7.4 billion.

"As one of the fastest-growing consumer holidays, Halloween has retailers of all shapes and sizes preparing their stores and websites for the busy fall shopping season," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "There's no question that the variety of adult, child and even pet costumes now available has driven the demand and popularity of Halloween among consumers of all ages.  And, with the holiday falling on a Friday this year, we fully expect there will be a record number of consumers taking to the streets, visiting haunted houses and throwing unforgettable celebrations."

Party-goers will splurge on spooky and fun garb to wear this year as $2.8 billion will be spent on costumes overall.  Specifically, celebrants will shell out $1.1 billion on children's costumes, and $1.4 billion on adult costumes.  It is clear Fido and Fluffy will not be forgotten:  Americans will spend $350 million on costumes for their furry friends.

Candy and greeting cards alike will be popular items this season, as consumers will spend $2.2 billion on candy this year and 35.9 percent of people will be sending Halloween greeting cards.  With Americans planning to spend $2 billion on decorations for the frightful holiday, life-size ghosts, pumpkins and festive decor will be aplenty on lawns and doorsteps throughout the country.

Consumers will celebrate the holiday in many different ways, but topping the list of planned activities is handing out candy (71.1%), while others will decorate their homes and yards (46.7%), and dress in costume (45.8%).  One-third of Americans will throw or attend a party (33.4%), which is up from last year (30.9%).

Much like last year, consumers will hit the stores and the Internet early to get the first pick of costumes and candy.  According to the survey, nearly one-third of celebrants (32.1%) say they will start their Halloween shopping before the first of October.  And, while 43.3 percent of celebrants kick off their shopping in the first two weeks of October, one-quarter (24.6%) will wait until the last minute and shop the last two weeks of October.

While the bulk of Americans will look for costume inspiration online (34.2%) or in a retail store or costume shop (33%), Pinterest is a growing source of inspiration this year.  The survey found 11.4 percent of Americans will turn to Pinterest for costume ideas, up from 9.3 percent last year.  Young adults will drive the most Pinterest traffic:  21.2 percent of 18-24 year olds will turn to the popular site for ideas, as will 21.0 percent of 25-34 year olds.

"Social media is a great tool for consumers to find inspiration for all of their Halloween activities, including finding tips for decorating their homes and yards, looking for personal and even family costume ideas, and even finding the best deals from retailers," said Analyst Pam Goodfellow.  "As the popularity of Halloween continues to grow to unseen levels, there is no doubt that Americans this year will find ways to get in the spirit, looking for affordable, fun ways to celebrate with their families."

For some consumers, the U.S. economy is still top-of-mind.  According to the survey, 18.8 percent say the state of the U.S. economy will impact their Halloween spending plans.  Specifically, nearly two in five (19.7%) of those impacted will utilize their creative skills and make their own costumes rather than buying a new one this Halloween.

Source: National Retail Federation

BTS Propels Spending In August

September 12, 2014

Overall retail spending growth in August 2014 was the strongest in more than a year.  Retail dollar volume growth reached 2.8% in August - compared to 2.6% in July - as back-to-school shopping propelled spending growth in several retail categories.

August's overall average ticket growth remained positive at 1.2%, slipping slightly from July's 1.5% on a year-over-year basis.  Looking at growth rates of different payment types, credit transactions grew 5.8% in August, while signature debit card transactions rose 3.9% and transactions using PIN debit cards increased 3.4%.  Check transactions decreased 5.9% and prepaid card transactions grew 6%.

"Two important factors, back-to-school spending and late summer vacationing, contributed to strong overall consumer spending in August and despite stagnant wage growth and a moderate housing market, consumer confidence rose in August.  Robust credit card spending at 5.8%, was healthy again last month, surpassing both PIN and signature debit growth."

The report examined the period for August 2 through September 2, 2014, compared to August 1 through September 1, 2013. 

Dollar volume growth at furniture and home furnishings and general merchandise stores was positive on a year-over-year basis and increased sequentially compared to July, with a growth of 4.5% and 4.4%, respectively.

Source: Retailing Today