FOURTH OF JULY SALES KICK INTO GEAR: WHAT WILL THE BEST DEALS BE?

School just got out, and everyone is gearing up for the big Independence Day summer holiday. But retailers are already thinking about Back to School, wanting to clear out summer inventory to make way for Back to School sales that will start right after July 4. So where will the biggest savings be, and on what products?

The best deals will be on summer items such as swim and beach wear. Also, as trendy teen and youth apparel sales have suffered in the past few months, these retailers are offering extreme deals for the 4^th of July. The holiday is expected to shatter travel records due to lower gas prices. Also, as consumers spend more on experiences than on merchandise, retailers are promoting items shoppers need to have those road trips and experiences. The holiday weekend will be a great opportunity to stock up on active wear, camping gear and outdoor gear.

Wait until Back to School sales, after the holiday, for denim and electronics, when these items will have deeper discounts. Popular beauty products are not expected to be discounted, as this category is doing well and are high-margin goods for the retailers.

Source: Forbes.com 

IT’s DAYS OF SUPPLY INSTEAD OF WEEKS OF SUPPLY FOR DIY RETAILERS LIKE HOME DEPOT

While the DIY retail segment is currently booming – Home Depot is targeting a 15% sales growth by 2018 – their strategies for inventory in their stores is changing. “Get comfortable with days of inventory, not weeks,” Tom Shortt, Home Depot’s senior vice president of supply chain, says is the message going out to stores. 

Rather than filling its warehouse stores with inventory, Home Depot wants fewer items on its shelves and wants those items within customers’ reach. Online shopping is making retailers think of better ways to profitably serve online shoppers and have inventory in stores, as well. They need to decide if they will ship to consumers from a distribution center or store.

WalMart and Target have also made changes to in-store inventory levels. WalMart’s inventory levels rose slower than sales, helping to improve their gross profit margins in the first quarter.  Boosting sales and stocking less items increase the percentage of cash they get back from the amount they invest in inventory. The strategy is to put less inventory in the stores and replenish more frequently based on demand instead of a forecast.

Home Depot’s strategy is called “Project Sync” which includes such changes as seeing suppliers send 2 trucks five days a week, versus 5 trucks 2 times per week.

Monitoring the return on invested inventory capital and tracking consumer demand closely in order to manage inventory and replenish based on demand can only be accomplished with frequent analysis of POS data in stores, looking at SKU-Store sales and on hands, trending days of supply and sales to stock ratios.

Source: Wall St. Journal

TARGET’S NEW RULES FOR VENDORS TO TIGHTEN UP SUPPLY CHAIN AND INVENTORY

Target Corp is tightening its supply chain requirements for its vendors as part of a multi-billion dollar plan. The rules, effective May 30, include tighter deadlines for deliveries to warehouses, and fines for late deliveries and inaccuracies in product information.

Says Target’s COO, John Mulligan, vendors need to help keep shelves stocked, maximize sales and control costs. A letter was sent to suppliers. In the letter, Target stated the goal to keep products stocked to “lower missed sales for all of us.” Target US stores in 2015 held 8 to 9 billion items on store floors, in transit or in warehouses at any point in time.

The new rules will be phased on over the summer, with household, paper, and pet products needing to comply in June, health and beauty complying by July and apparel, home and electronics in August.

Source: Reuters.com

NORDSTOM IS RANKED FAVORITE RETAILER IN RECENT SURVEY

A survey of over 5,700 consumers found that Nordstrom ranked first among retailers in customer satisfaction. It specifically ranked highest scores for atmosphere, checkout speed and finding the correct size/product the customer was looking for. One in five customers surveyed indicated they were dissatisfied in general with their fashion retail experience across all retailers. 40% of these customers indicated that the sales experience was very important to them, and that less than half of them were approached by a sales associate, which was key to their satisfaction. Nordstrom’s sales associates assisted customers the most and received the highest satisfaction scores.

Coming in behind Nordstrom were Marshalls, H&M, Ross, Kohl’s and Macy’s.

With merchandise selection and ease of finding items and size selection the top of customers’ needs, retailers and vendors recognize the importance of partnering to share point of sale and inventory data in order to optimize store assortments. Many vendors, such as Brahmin Leather, Anastasia Beaute and The Sak, utilize Accelerated Analytics to monitor and act on inventory levels and customer buying patterns in Nordstrom and other retailers to maximize their effectiveness in this area.

Source: Chain Store Age

NRF SURVEY REVEALS INVENTORY SHRINK IS A $44 BILLION PROBLEM FOR RETAILERS

Inventory shrink, or the loss of product due to shoplifting, employee and vendor theft and administrative errors, costs retailers billions of dollars. The NRF and the University of Florida provided survey results this week stating that in 2014 inventory shrink averaged 1.38% of retail sales, or $44 billion.

Shoplifting accounted for 38% of the loss, followed by 34.5% in employee theft. The rest consisted of 16.5% administrative errors, 6.8% vendor fraud or error and 6.1% unknown loss.

While grocery chains have the highest shrink rate, home center/hardware/lumber/garden reported average shrinkage of 1.09%.

Tracking inventory effectively is key to managing shrink. Actual and accurate inventory counts eliminates the over/under counting in the results. Verifying product delivered is what was ordered and is accurately described in systems is also paramount – if an expected-sized item was not available, and the vendor ships a different size, but that difference is not noted, a retailer can end up with a surplus of one size, a shortage of another, and a dent in their inventory valuation. Inventory measurements should be looked at in both units and dollars. A retailer could be 99.5% accurate in dollars but only 94% accurate in units.

Shrink-related data is stored in different applications such as POS/point of sale, inventory, receiving and store applications. Having the ability to obtain reports that combine point of sale and inventory data in a timely fashion is imperative to take action quickly before the data becomes outdated.

Accelerated Analytics is a comprehensive service for collecting, analyzing and reporting on POS point of sale and inventory data, to increase sales, optimize inventory, recognize inventory shrink and respond faster to this information.

Source: Chain Store Age, ProSales

Calculating Weeks of Supply Inventory

A metric fundamental to managing the retail supply chain is weeks of supply (WOS). Weeks of supply tells the inventory manager how long the current on hand will last based on current sales demand.  By keeping your eye on weeks of supply, you can avoid inventory stock outs and lost sales.  The basic calculation for weeks of supply is pretty simple: on hand inventory / average weekly units sold.  However, our work with vendors demonstrates calculating an accurate and useful weeks of supply can be anything but simple.  Let me explain.  An EDI 852 document will provide units sold and on hand.   Very few EDI 852 documents provide data for inventory on order, inventory in transit, or inventory in the warehouse.  More sophisticated systems, like Wal-Mart’s Retail Link, will provide the additional inventory data.  So, the first issue an analyst working only with EDI 852 must overcome is to gain a complete picture of the inventory in the supply chain – all the inventory.  If you are working with a Home Depot 852 or a Lowe’s 852 you must also gather your purchase order and shipping data so that you have the ability to understand on order and in transit inventory.  You must also decide how to apply inventory in the supply chain.  That is, will you sum on hand + on order + in transit  to use as the numerator in your calculation?  Or perhaps you would prefer to ignore the on order due to long shipping lead times and use on hand + in transit. 

The next consideration is how to calculate the average weekly units sold which is the denominator in the weeks of supply calculation.  This requires some careful consideration.   If the number of weeks used to calculate the average is not selected correctly you will arrive at a misleading result. 

One vendor has products which are non seasonal and tend to have very steady and consistent sales.  The other vendor has products which are seasonal and sell much higher in the warm spring and summer months.  When choosing the number of weeks for calculating the weeks of supply, you want to consider the rate at which your demand changes.  If your demand is fairly steady,  like the non seasonal vendor, a larger number of weeks can be used.  If, however,  your demand tends to change rapidly due to seasonality or based on some event like selling licensed apparel during football season, then you should choose a smaller number of weeks.  Our experience shows that a seasonal vendor should consider a four week window of sales demand and a non seasonal vendor should choose 8 to 10 weeks.

The final point to make about calculating weeks of supply is to consult with your retail buyer on the period of demand they are using.  If you are using four weeks and they are using six weeks, you will arrive at different order quantities.  By discussing the calculation, you may find your method is more accurate or you may find the retailer has good reasons for their method.  If you still feel your method is more accurate, then calculate weeks of supply using both methods and track the accuracy over time.  This will provide you with the factual data to either change your calculation method to align with the buyer’s, or demonstrate to them why your calculation is more accurate.