HOME DEPOT FOCUSES ON THE ONLINE SHOPPER…BY FOCUSING ON THEIR STORES

The Home Depot has been on the great end of the rebounding housing market with a continued 4% increase in sales in the last quarter, while homeowners work on big remodeling projects like installing decks or remodeling kitchens. Without plans to add more new stores, Home Depot focuses on how to use their existing stores in new ways.

About 42% of Home Depot online shoppers order online, but pick up in the store. To accommodate that, Home Depot is allocating capital to build out store storage to hold those products. When the customer is in the store, the retailer is trying new displays that help the customer shop easier. For example, the spray-paint section is set up like a soft drink display, so as one can is selected, the next can pops into place. In the lumber and millwork flooring area, the displays are easier for the customer to shop off of on their own, and the signage has been improved.

For the increasing online sales where customers want the items shipped to their homes, Home Depot has opened 3 new fulfillment centers that can deliver orders to 90% of their customers within 2 business days. They are also looking into leveraging their store locations to use local economical transportation for buy-online, ship-to-store orders.

Source: Wall St. Journal, IHRC

IT’s DAYS OF SUPPLY INSTEAD OF WEEKS OF SUPPLY FOR DIY RETAILERS LIKE HOME DEPOT

While the DIY retail segment is currently booming – Home Depot is targeting a 15% sales growth by 2018 – their strategies for inventory in their stores is changing. “Get comfortable with days of inventory, not weeks,” Tom Shortt, Home Depot’s senior vice president of supply chain, says is the message going out to stores. 

Rather than filling its warehouse stores with inventory, Home Depot wants fewer items on its shelves and wants those items within customers’ reach. Online shopping is making retailers think of better ways to profitably serve online shoppers and have inventory in stores, as well. They need to decide if they will ship to consumers from a distribution center or store.

WalMart and Target have also made changes to in-store inventory levels. WalMart’s inventory levels rose slower than sales, helping to improve their gross profit margins in the first quarter.  Boosting sales and stocking less items increase the percentage of cash they get back from the amount they invest in inventory. The strategy is to put less inventory in the stores and replenish more frequently based on demand instead of a forecast.

Home Depot’s strategy is called “Project Sync” which includes such changes as seeing suppliers send 2 trucks five days a week, versus 5 trucks 2 times per week.

Monitoring the return on invested inventory capital and tracking consumer demand closely in order to manage inventory and replenish based on demand can only be accomplished with frequent analysis of POS data in stores, looking at SKU-Store sales and on hands, trending days of supply and sales to stock ratios.

Source: Wall St. Journal

TARGET’S NEW RULES FOR VENDORS TO TIGHTEN UP SUPPLY CHAIN AND INVENTORY

Target Corp is tightening its supply chain requirements for its vendors as part of a multi-billion dollar plan. The rules, effective May 30, include tighter deadlines for deliveries to warehouses, and fines for late deliveries and inaccuracies in product information.

Says Target’s COO, John Mulligan, vendors need to help keep shelves stocked, maximize sales and control costs. A letter was sent to suppliers. In the letter, Target stated the goal to keep products stocked to “lower missed sales for all of us.” Target US stores in 2015 held 8 to 9 billion items on store floors, in transit or in warehouses at any point in time.

The new rules will be phased on over the summer, with household, paper, and pet products needing to comply in June, health and beauty complying by July and apparel, home and electronics in August.

Source: Reuters.com

What is Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)?

CPFR is a business methodology which integrates multiple parties in the planning and fulfillment of customer demand.  The idea behind CPFR is that by coordinating activities throughout the supply chain inventories can be moved more efficiently, in the correct quantities, to the correct inventory locations to meet customer demand.  CPFR establishes a common language, common processes and metrics to assist the trading partners to achieve these goals. 

The CPFR model

The customer, as the creator of sales demand for a product, is at the center of the CPFR model.  Surrounding the customer is the retailer and the supporting activities provided by the retailer: Category management, POS forecasting, Replenishment Management, Buying, Logistics & Distribution, Store Execution, Supplier Scorecard, and Vendor Management.  The outside ring of the CPFR model is comprised of the manufacturer and their activities.  The model is broadly organized into four quadrants comprised of Strategy & Planning, Demand & Supply Management, Execution, and Analysis.    The retailer, manufacturer, and supply chain partners interact through a series of eight business activities: Collaboration Arrangement, Joint Business Plan, Sales Forecasting, Oder Planning & Forecasting, Order Generation, Order Fulfillment, Exception Management, and Performance Assessments. 

Information Sharing in CPFR

Information sharing is a critical requirement to make a CPFR initiative successful.   Consumer demand must be quantified at a UPC/store level and quickly communicated from the retailer to the manufacturer.  The orders for new inventory must be placed quickly in the correct quantity and the orders must be fulfilled and shipped on time to ensure delivery to the shelf when the consumer is ready to make the purchase.  Any breakdowns in the communication process, or a lack of visibility into consumer demand in the cycle, has the potential to create an out of stock and lost sales will result.   

Successful Inventory Allocation in CPFR Requires Constant Monitoring and Adjustment

CPFR is not a one-time event, it is a business process which follows the entire life cycle of a product and which must be continuously monitored and adjusted.  All parties including the retailer, manufacturer and supply chain participants must be involved in the planning and communication cycle.  Participants should coordinate and agreed on the initial order quantity to establish the on shelf inventory position.   All parties should carefully monitor demand and adjust the regular on shelf replenishment rules based on local demand which govern the flow of inventory.  Proactive pre-planning for promotions, markdowns or price changes which may impact the regular consumer demand for a product are essential to avoid out of stocks.  

Is the EDI 852 document Sufficient to Enable CPFR?

The EDI 852 document (also referred to as the Product Activity Transaction Set) is the most common method for retailers to communicate retail point of sale data and inventory to manufacturers.   The most common elements of an EDI 852 document include units sold, dollars sold, and inventory on hand by UPC and store.   While the EDI 852 document provides a wealth of useful information to inform the participants of a CPFR initiative unfortunately the implementation of the EDI 852 is often incomplete.  The EDI 852 document outlines standard elements and technical details of the file structure but the implementation by each retailer varies.  One retailer may provide inventory on hand and units on order, while another may provide only on hand, or in some cases no on hand at all.  The problem is not the EDI 852 document or the standard, the problem is the implementation is not consistent.  Another problem with the EDI 852 document is the frequency of transmission.  In nearly all cases the EDI 852 document is transmitted weekly and summarizes sales for the period.  This creates a significant delay in the manufacturer’s ability to sense and react to changes in consumer demand.   If an out of stock is encountered early in the reporting period the manufacturer will not be alerted to that for several business days.  Another very significant gap in the implementation of the EDI 852 document is units on order data.  Unfortunately, a majority of retailers do not provide this data in their EDI 852 document.  So while a manufacturer may identify a spike in sales demand they do not have order information to know if the problem has already been identified by the retailer and an action taken.  The manufacturer can separately consult their purchase order data from the retailer but with today’s modern supply chain most retailers place large orders which are destined for a distribution center which obscures the store level order information.  The retailer may have placed an order but are those units going to the store which most needs them?  This is a critical gap in the information flow which is required for a successful CPFR implementation.    

Replenishment System Barriers to CPFR

Most retailers have invested heavily into information systems to forecast demand, monitor sales, and place automatic orders based on min/max inventory rules.  These systems can be very sophisticated and accurate at an aggregated level, but they are not typically monitoring individual store and product inventory positions.   A replenishment manager at the retailer is responsible for monitoring and adjusting the replenishment system to ensure inventory levels are maintained.  However in reality an open to buy budget has a large impact on the decisions the information system or the replenishment manager can implement.  Far too often inventory has built up in one area while other stores are starved for inventory but the overall financial position of the retailer is constrained and additional purchase orders cannot be issued.  Manufacturers may identify inventory out of stock situations and communicate the problem to the replenishment manager but the replenishment manager may be powerless to do anything to react.  For a CPFR initiative to be successful the retailer and manufacturer must defined the communication process and action steps before the inventory shortages begin to occur.  The action plan must identify who has the authority to override the replenishment system and place an order even if that means temporarily exceeding the total desired inventory position.  The allocation and redistribution of inventory must also be discussed prior to starting the CPFR initiative.  While it may be counter intuitive to create inventory positions which are significantly different by retail store location the inventory must follow, and react to, consumer demand. 

CPFR – the Bottom Line

There are many case studies which point to the benefits of CPFR.  Some of these case studies demonstrate inventory reductions of 10% to 40% with corresponding improvements in sales between 5% and 20%.   It is hard to dispute that when all the parties involved in the supply chain plan, coordinate, and act that business benefits will not be realized.  The difficulty it seems comes down to efficient and consistent communication, and pre-planned agreements on what actions will be taken based on consumer behavior.   Our experience has demonstrated even when all participants are aware of a problem it does not necessarily translate into productive actions to solve the problem within a meaningful timeframe to make a significant impact.  If an out of stock occurs on a Tuesday and the manufacturer identifies it the following Monday when the EDI 852 is transmitted, and the retailer places an order on Tuesday, the shelf has been empty for a week.  That is the challenge of CPFR – communicating and acting rapidly.  This does not diminish the value of CPFR by any means; however the real world implementation is anything but easy. 

Getting Started with CPFR

There are some practical steps manufacturers can take to begin on the path to CPFR:

1. Work with your retailer to identify the gaps in the retail point of sale activity data they are providing and how they can be filled.  These gaps usually revolve around inventory on hand and on order, and the frequency of the data transmission.
2. Work with your retailer to understand the steps involved to prevent, or at least fix, an out of stock.   Who has the authority to place an order?  Who has the authority to override the replenishment system?  Who has the authority to reallocate inventory from poorly producing locations to high producing locations?  What is the turn time from order to on shelf by region?  What are the min/max rules and how were they established?
3. Create a system for proactive monitoring of sales and weeks of supply inventory by store and UPC.   When will the analysis be conducted each day or week?  Who owns this analysis and what actions they will take based on severity of the shortage?  If the retailer will not accept and act on the order advice is there an escalation process and who’s involved?
4. Automate the analysis in step #3 above.   Analyzing sales and inventory at a UPC/store location presents a significant data challenge due to the sheer volume of data for most manufactures.  For example, if you have 45 UPC’s selling at 2500 retail stores there will be 112,500 rows of data to review, analyze and report.   Most manufacturers start with a spreadsheet as their tool for this process but quickly find it is a time consuming and difficult task.  As a result the analysis is not completed quickly and accurately and opportunities can be lost.   A more sophisticated solution is required which is exception based.  Predefined exception reports which alert the analyst to only those items/stores which are below desired levels can be developed.   This saves time and allows the analyst to work on the problem rather than on a spreadsheet. 

Is Erika going to be a bad girl?

Ten questions to get you started on a severe weather continuity plan.

Tropical Storm Erika has caused at least 4 deaths and widespread flooding as she moves past Dominica and Puerto Rico.  The current forecast model cone suggests a path right over Florida with Miami impacted early Monday morning (31 Aug).  The model is uncertain because traveling through the Caribbean could strengthen Erika into a hurricane, steer her toward the Carolinas, or just create mild to moderate flooding and wind.   

Florida is a huge retail market for Home Depot, Lowes, CVS, Walgreens, Walmart and many other retailers.  The east coast of the U.S. has millions of people in several large cities.  With a possible impact from Tropical Storm Erika less than three days away, now is the time to evaluate the risk Hurricane Erika poses to your business. This is a great exercise for not only this storm but also so that you can quickly and proactively act when the next storm is on the horizon.  

Ten Questions to Start Your Severe Weather Planning

1. Are my products impacted by the severe weather?  
2. What products are impacted?
3. Is the impact from the severe weather before, during, after, all the above?
4. What are my retail customer’s policies for store operations before, during, and after severe weather?
5. How will I be kept up to date on actions my retail customers are taking as a result of severe weather?
6. Can I create and save reports with the SKUs and stores I expect would be impacted by a severe weather event?
7. Can I purchase weather alerts or data to more quickly initiate our planning process?  

Developing a detailed understanding of how severe weather could impact your business and then using that to create a comprehensive process map, with actionable steps, is critical to business success when a severe weather event occurs.   After you have created your plan review it in detail with your retail buyer and replenishment managers.  They are likely to have input which will strengthen the plan further, and it's also very possible they will be willing to share resources which are part of their severe weather plan like advanced weather forecasts, and emergency store operations communications you might not otherwise have been able to access.  Is there model for Tropical Storm Erika more detailed than generally available information right now?

I would also recommend adding Twitter into your communication monitoring process.  During a storm news travels very fast on Twitter.  If you have taken the steps above to identify specific stores you can monitor Tweets by simple saved searches and hashtags.  You can also send Tweets using hashtags if you want to get a message out quickly which is related to the weather and your product. 

Retail can be severely impacted by weather, but with proper planning allowing your business to act prior to a storm or react very rapidly to a storm, your business doesn't have to be negatively impacted. In fact, a severe weather event could be a tailwind for your business. 

AAFES CONDUCTS FIRST-EVER EXCHANGE IMPACT WORKSHOP TO DETAIL GO TO MARKET STRATEGIES

The Army and Air Force Exchange Service (AAFES) conducted a workshop in Dallas, detailing the Exchanges’ go to market strategy, with over 50 AAFES representatives and an audience of manufacturers, brokers, distributors and service providers. The goal of the workshop was to simplify the process of selling to AAFES.

AAFES representatives discussed store repositioning strategies and individual category breakouts including hard lines, soft lines, consumables and e-commerce. They also covered legislative and policy issues affecting military resale. The average company can take two to four years to navigate the military resale environment, but a workshop such as this one can help shorten that to a six to twelve month learning curve.

The workshop was led by AAFES Chief Merchandising Officer Ana Middleton.

Resource: Retailing Today

Dollar General Adds Another DC

October 16, 2014

Even if Dollar General doesn't prevail in its efforts to acquire Family Dollar, the company's expanding distribution infrastructure is positioned to support future growth.

Dollar General said it plans to build the 13th distribution center in its nationwide network in San Antonio.  The facility will measure more than 900,000 sq. ft., employ roughly 530 people and serve more than 1,000 stores when it opens in October 2015, the company said.

"This distribution center is another important investment in the growth of Dollar General and our substantial presence in Texas where we have nearly 1,200 stores and more than 9,400 employees," said Rick Dreiling, chairman and CEO of Dollar General.  "We operate more stores in the Lone Star state than in any other state and we have found Texas is a great place to do business.  We are proud to continue investing in the economic growth of Texas and we look forward to bringing an additional 530 jobs to Bexar County."

Dollar General's 12 other distribution centers are located in Alabama, California, Florida, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Virginia.  Those facilities served the company's more than 11,500 stores nationwide.

Source: Retailing Today

Imports To Set New Record Before Holidays

October 10, 2014

Import cargo volume at the nation's major retail container ports is expected to see a final surge and set a new monthly record in October as the holiday season approaches, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released late this week by the National Retail Federation.

"Increasing congestion at the nation's ports as well as the ongoing West Coast labor negotiations are ongoing concerns and retailers are making one last push to make sure they're stocked up for the holidays," said NRF VP for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold.  "Retailers are working hard to make sure customers can find what they're looking for regardless of what happens at the ports."

Import volume at U.S. ports covered by the Global Port Tracker report is expected to total 1.53 million containers in October, topping the 1.52 million monthly record set in August.  Cargo volume has been well above average each month since spring as retailers have imported merchandise early in case of any disruption in the docks.

The contract between the Pacific Maritime Association and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union expired on July 1, prompting concerns about potential disruptions that could affect back-to-school and holiday merchandise.  Dockworkers remain on the job as negotiations continue but the lack of a contract and operational issues have led to record congestion at the ports.

The 1.52 million 20 ft. equivalent units handled in August, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available, was up 1.5% from July and 2.1% from August 2013.  One TEU is one 20 ft. cargo container or its equivalent.

September was estimated at 1.48 million TEU, up 2.8% from the same month the prior year, and October's forecast of 1.53 million TEU would be up 6.4% from 2013.  November is forecast at 1.39 million TEU, up 3.7%, and December at 1.37 million TEU, up 3.9%.

Those numbers would bring 2014 to a total of 17.1 million TEU, an increase of 5.3% from 2013's 16.2 million.  Imports in 2012 totaled 15.8 million.  The first half of 2014 totaled 8.3 million TEU, up 7% from the previous year.

January 2015 is forecast at 1.42 million TEU, up 3.5% from January 2014, while February is forecast at 1.35 million TEU, up 8.5% from the previous year.

The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting 4.1% holiday season sales growth and 3.6% growth for 2014 overall.  Cargo volume does not correlate directly with sales but is a barometer of retailer's expectations.

Source: Retailing Today

Record Imports Expected In August

August 11, 2014

Import volume at major U.S. container ports is expected to hit an all-time record in August as retailers concerned about the lack of a West Coast longshoremen's contract rush to bring holiday season merchandise into the country, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation.

"The negotiations appear to be going well but each week that goes by makes the situation more critical as the holiday season approaches," NRF VP for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said.  "Retailers are making sure they are stocked up so shoppers won't be affected regardless of what happens at the ports."

Import volume at U.S. ports covered by the Global Port Tracker report is expected to total 1.54 million containers this month.  That's the highest monthly volume since NRF began tracking import volume in 2000, topping a previous record of 1.53 million set in July and unusually high numbers seen this spring as retailers began importing merchandise early in anticipation of this summer's contract talks.

The contract between the Pacific Maritime Association and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union expired on July 1.  Dockworkers remain on the job as both sides continue to negotiate a new agreement.  Both sides have reported that talks have been "productive," and NRF has urged both labor and management to avoid any disruptions that could affect the flow of back-to-school or holiday merchandise.

U.S. ports followed by the report handled 1.48 million 20 ft. equivalent units in June, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available.  That was down 0.38% from May but up 9.1% from June 2013.  One TEU is one 20 foot cargo container or its equivalent.

July was estimated at 1.53 million TEU, up 5.8% from the same month last year, and August is forecast at 1.54 million TEU, up 3.6% from last year.  September is forecast at 1.48 million TEU, up 2.8% from last year; October also at 1.48 million TEU, up 3.3%; November at 1.37 million TEU, up 2%; and December at 1.34 million TEU, up 2.1%.

Those numbers would bring 2014 to a total of 17.1 million TEU, an increase of 5.2% over 2013's 16.2 million.  Imports in 2012 totaled 15.8 million.  The first half of 2014 totaled 8.3 million TEU, up 6.9% over last year.

The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting 3.6% sales growth in 2014.  Cargo volume does not correlate directly with sales but is a barometer of retailer's expectations.

The increases in volume reflect both improvements in the economy and retailers importing merchandise early because of the contract negotiations.

U.S. GDP has increased in 11 out of the last 12 quarters, confirming that we are in a sustained period of expansion.  A significant portion of the strong upswing in imports has been due to the labor negotiations, with importers moving up shipments just in case.

Global Port Tracker covers the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades and Miami on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

Source: Retailing Today

Home Depot Bolsters Online Business With New Direct Fulfillment Center

February 10, 2014

The Home Depot has opened a new direct fulfillment center (DFC) in the Locust Grove suburb of Atlanta. 

It is the first of three new DFC's the company will open across the U.S. in the next two years, adding more than 3 million sq. ft. and approximately 1,000 jobs to its supply chain. The new distribution centers will increase the number of orders the company can ship the day they are received, increasing the speed of delivery for HomeDepot.com orders.

The company is also enabling faster order picking and shipping through new warehouse management and material handling systems. 

"This is a significant investment in our ability to say yes to customers with confidence," said Mark Holifield, SVP, supply chain.  "Yes, you have access to our entire inventory to fulfill your order.  Yes, you can expect a speedy delivery.  And yes, you can rely on information updates about your delivery."

The DFC's will stock approximately 100,000 products, extending The Home Depot aisle beyond the 35,000 products typically available at the average physical store.

The Locust Grove DFC will initially employ approximately 125 people, and will eventually employ approximately 300.  Future DFCs are scheduled to open in Perris, California and Troy, Ohio.

The Home Depot has 2,263 retail stores in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, 10 Canadian provinces and Mexico.  In fiscal 2012, The Home Depot had sales of $74.8 billion and earnings of $4.5 billion.  The company employs more than 300,000 people.

Source: Retailing Today

Home Depot To Invest In Tech And Supply Chain Upgrades

December 12, 2014

The Home Depot reportedly plans to invest $300 million on technology and supply chain upgrades during its fiscal year 2014, which begins in February 2014.  According to the Wall Street Journal, the results will include three new fulfillment centers in California, Atlanta and Ohio by 2016, as well as same-day shipping for some online orders.

The new centers will dramatically increase the number of orders the chain can ship the same day they are received, which significantly expands the number of orders it will be able to deliver within two days or less.  With this same day shipping capability, these centers are geographically positioned to leverage parcel freight carriers' networks to deliver 90% of customers' parcel orders within two days, using economical ground service.  For example, when the network is complete, most customers will be able to order on a Wednesday by 5 p.m. with the product delivered by Friday, according to Home Depot.

Home Depot's total sales are expected to reach $79 billion during fiscal 2013, aided by a boost in online sales.  Other new programs for the upcoming fiscal year may include expanded in-home assembly and installation services.

Source: Retailing Today

Demand Driven Planning in 2013

The availability of retail point of sale data over the past several years has created the opportunity for vendors to gain a detailed understanding of consumer demand at the retail point of sale.  Actual consumer demand at the retail point of sale presents a more accurate and timely picture of how your SKU’s are selling than retailer forecast advice or even retail purchase orders.  So why don’t all vendors collect EDI 852 or retail POS data from their customers and use it for creating forecasts and managing sales?  There seem to be several myths holding vendors back….

Myth #1: Collecting and analyzing EDI 852 / retail POS data is expensive and complex.  In a few limited cases like Home Depot and Menards it is true that the simple process of collecting the data has some expense.  Home Depot EDI 852 for example must be collected using a VAN so there are data transmission charges.  Menards charges a vendor to purchase a RSA SecurID.   But most retailers make EDI 852 or retail POS data available for free and even when there is a fee the benefits exceed the expenses.   Extracting the data, matching to item catalog details and store details does require some expertise but there are many SaaS applications now like Accelerated Analytics which will outsource the technical requirements for an affordable monthly fee.  By monitoring the consumer demand and inventory on hand at a SKU / store level of detail a vendor can proactively work with the retail replenishment manager to avoid out of stocks.  Every sale you get that would have been lost due to an empty shelf is returning value and paying for the expense of collecting and using the EDI 852 data.  How many lost sales do you need to recover a monthly data management fee that is typically less than $2,000?   At a chain like Home Depot with roughly 1900 stores in the USA the answer is not very many.

Myth #2:  My buyer won’t accept replenishment recommendations.  We hear this all the time – “I realize I could probably increase my in stock rate using EDI 852 / POS data but my retail customer uses automated replenishment or has a fixed open to buy plan so my recommendations fall on deaf ears”.  Several things are at work with this myth.  First, most vendors are operating on an assumption that if they talked to their buyer, they would discover is inaccurate.  I’ve talked to buyers at many retailers and I get a consistent answer – if the vendor can quantify the problem and provide an accurate order recommendation I will take it into consideration.  Second, the vendor has to demonstrate a competency in using the data for basic tasks like sales monitoring before they try to recommend orders.  I’ve seen countless examples of a vendor providing sales reporting and value to a buyer who then gains confidence the vendor can get the demand forecast right.  Finally, you have to start off slow.  Start with your highest turn products at your A volume stores and calculate the lost dollars sold for an 8 week period.  Then go to your buyer with a summary of your findings and actions to improve in stock and quantify the sales opportunity for both of you.  Make conservative recommendations to increase the WOS by one week so you gain back some sales but avoid loading the store with inventory and dropping your GMROI.  They have the same goal as you – to sell more product!

Every vendor that sells a product through a retail store should invest into analyzing retail point of sale data and using it for creating detailed action plans.  The data acquisition and reporting costs are very low when you consider them as a percentage of your retail sales and the upside benefits of increased sales, better assortment planning, and optimal inventory on hand are huge by comparison.  Let’s make 2013 the year that all vendors make the investment.  

NRF Leads Fight Against Unfair Trucking Regulations

The National Retail Federation joined a coalition of manufacturers, shippers and transportation providers opposing new federal trucking regulations on drivers' hours of service.

"The retail industry is at the crossroads of the supply chain, interconnecting manufacturers and suppliers with vendors and customers," NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said.  "It is the retail industry's responsibility to get products to market and into consumers' hands in a safe and timely manner.  It is a responsiblity that we hold dear.  Any new regulation that impedes that ability increases our transportation costs, increases consumer prices, and jeopardizes the fragile economic recovery."

The joint brief challenges the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration's new hours of service regulations.  The new rules require mandatory and specified truck driver work breaks, rest periods, and changes the existing 34 hour restart period to include consecutive nights off.  NRF had previously filed comments with the FMCSA during the rulemaking process to express the retail industry's concerns.

"The Administration failed to take into account the serious economic ramifications faced by the broader supply chain community when drafting these rules," Shay said.  "NRF believes that the new requirements will only drive up costs, make trucking less safe, increase congestion, and ultimately hurt job growth and the economy.  Any change in supply chain policy should be based solely on science and fact."

Source: retailingtoday.com

Weather Analytics and Retail Sales

After crunching the numbers, the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has found that January 2012 was the fourth warmest January on record across the contiguous United States. This is also the mildest January since 2006, which was the warmest in records dating back to 1895.

States with a top 10 warmest January (9 total) - AZ, KS, MO, MN, ND, NE, OK, SD, WY

The Weather Channel, LLC

Weather can have a significant impact on retail sales.  Consumer’s behavior changes, distribution can be impacted, regular seasonal selling can shift, etc.   Our team has recently completed analytical projects with customers using precipitation, temperature, humidity, and many more weather data points to understand retail sales patterns and then use that understanding to create forecast models.  This is the beauty of store / UPC grain retail sales data.  Combining retail point of sale (EDI 852) demand data with weather data, you can identify fascinating and very useful insights.  Some things to keep in mind….

Useful weather analytics almost always requires day grain retail data.  Week grain data is useful for some weather analytics but there are significant limitations.  EDI 852 is often weekly grain, but sometimes day grain is available.  Portals like Retail Link can provide daily grain (or lower if you want) retail sales reports so target your project to your retail customers that provide day grain retail sales data.

Studying the data carefully to identify statistical significance is critical.  Antidotal or observational research is helpful to inform your statistics but be careful about over simplifying what you see (e.g. it rained and sales are up) until you have run the numbers.

Do apply your industry and product knowledge.  If you sell a product that conventional wisdom says is impacted by precipitation or temperature, then use that as a starting point for building the model.  If the output of the model challenges the conventional wisdom, then dig into the model and look for holes until you are satisfied with the accuracy of the results.

A quality weather analytics project is not an inexpensive project, so be prepared to make an investment.  But on the flipside, we have seen these investments provide huge returns for highly weather dependent product categories.  

Managing Inventory: The Highs and Lows

When vendors think about managing inventory, quite often they immediately think of those stores with insufficient inventory and how to resolve that.  Of course, this is a natural and valuable consideration, and a correspondingly considerable effort is made to eliminate inventory outages and prevent lost sales.   
 
But what of the flip side of that coin?  A June 26th article in the Wall Street Journal, titled “Retailers Cut Back on Variety, Once the Spice of Marketing,” cites Walgreen Co., Wal-Mart Stores, and Kroger Co. as examples of how retailers are concerned about too much inventory in addition to their concern about too little.  The article goes on, “these and a few of the other largest retailers are expected to slice the assortment of products in their stores by at least 15%, industry executives and analysts say.”
 
The difficulty for vendors, then, is how to manage both the highs and lows of their inventory throughout their supply chain.  Indeed, inventory ought to be managed at an item by store level, which in and of itself is a vast amount of data.  This is further complicated by the use of third party distributors and the various distribution facilities and warehouse networks used by each different retailer.  Simply getting the raw shipping and inventory information from each retailer and/or distributor is often a substantial task, and making use of the disparate types and formats of data is more often than not the task of a whole team of analysts, who in turn rarely do any analyzing, spending the majority of their time collating and standardizing formatting.  As a result, by the time the inventory situation is discerned, it’s often stale data and virtually useless.
  
This need for accurate, rapid, actionable inventory information has caused vendors to turn to third party partners like Accelerated Analytics to quickly identify those items that are both under-stocked and overstocked.  The Accelerated Analytics® Inventory On Hand Exceptions report continues to be one of our most popular reports because it allows you, the manufacturer, to define any inventory exception you might be interested in and get a report for every item at every store that falls into that category.  Accelerated Analytics integrated use of data received from a vendor, its retail partners, and its distributors, allows our clients to see what the current inventory situation is as recently as the current Week to Date.  But more than the one-dimensional EDI files, Accelerated Analytics® provides a multi-layered inventory look incorporating your own warehoused, shipping history, your distributors’ warehouses and shipping history, and your retail partners’ warehouses and receipts, so you don’t push a new order to a store that is low today. but will be receiving a shipment tomorrow of several new cases for the same item.  Using this type of exception report, in addition to Accelerated Analytics unique Sales Velocity Analysis reports, your analysts can actually analyze your information and pinpoint the items and stores that need your immediate attention in time to do something about it.  This, in turn, will increase your sell-thru, which just might keep your item(s) on the shelf at Wal-Mart, Walgreens, or Kroger!

Explaining the demand driven supply chain

The demand driven supply chain is a retail optimization model developed and made popular by AMR Research. AMR defines DDSN as a system of technologies and processes that sense and react to real-time demand across a network of customers, suppliers, and employees. AMR benchmark research shows that those who do not implement supply chain improvement have an overall cost disadvantage of 5% of revenue due primarily to poor forecasting and in-stock performance. (see AMR Research Report "Hierarchy of Supply Chain Metrics: Diagnosing Your Supply Chain Health,: Feb 2004).

An article by author Enrique De Argaez summarized the main advantages of DDSN as: participants in the supply chain are all able to take part in shaping demand, as opposed to merely accepting and reacting to it.  Where vendors traditionally had little or at least latent visibility into market demand, the collaborative technologies employed in implementing DDSN have the overall effect of reducing and even eliminating the gap between upstream business and the end customers. This gives more accurate and timely insight into market trends which increases the accuracy of forecasting and supports better in-stock performance.

This type of market intelligence impacts more than just a vendor's ability to plan operations; it translates directly into reduced inventory holdings across the supply chain, which in turn, means an overall reduction in the amount of capital invested and therein all the associated carrying costs.

Research shows that companies who are best in class as demand forecasting average 15% less inventory, 17% stronger perfect order performance and 35% shorter cash-to-cash cycle times.

As a vendor, a first step in becoming demand driven is to gather and analyze retail POS data. Without the proper tools, this can be a time intensive process. But with the right tools, a vendor can accept multiple retail POS data feeds from their retail customers and begin to understand item sales and inventory on a store by store basis.

The efficient consumer response (ECR)

The efficient consumer response (ECR) movement effectively began in the mid-nineties and was characterized by the emergence of new principles of collaborative management along the supply chain. The underlying premise was that by collaborating with trading partners, the supply chain could become more efficient, eliminate excess inventory, and ultimately provide a more efficient response to customer demand. Collaborative forecasting, planning and replenishment (CPFR) and demand driven supply networks (DDSN) are extensions of what was begun with efficient consumer response (ECR).

At the heart of efficient consumer response (ECR) was a business environment characterized by dramatic advances in information technology, growing competition, global business structures and consumer demand focused on better choice, service, convenience, quality, freshness and safety and the increasing movements of goods across international borders aided by the internal European market. Retailers were increasingly realizing their in-store programs can only be effective when inventory is in-stock and on the shelves to sell. Demand planning and accurate forecasting and replenishment are the key - not buying more "safety-stock" because that simply leads to lower operating profits.

This new reality required a fundamental reconsideration of the most effective way of delivering the right products to consumers at the right price. Non-standardized operational practices and the rigid separation of the traditional roles of manufacturer and retailer, threatened to block the supply chain unnecessarily and failed to exploit the synergies that came from powerful new information technologies and planning tools.

In order to better serve customers, and improve operational efficiency, retailers and suppliers began to challenge the traditional supply chain relationships and technologies.

In its simplest form, efficient consumer response (ECR) enables more precise forecasting through sharing and monitoring of POS data.  Improved demand planning within the retail supply chain is the objective. ECR has also lead to innovative new thinking in the areas of market basket analysis, category management and demand planning.

Accelerated Analytics®, developed by the Rainmaker Group, provides an easy no-risk solution to efficient consumer response (ECR).

Accelerated Analytics® connects buyers and suppliers in a collaborative environment where point-of-sale data is used to improve forecast accuracy and decrease stock-outs. The Accelerated Analytics® environment is a hosted service including pre-configured reports, world-class analysis tools and color coded exception dashboards. These tools quickly turn data into actionable information and promote supply chain collaboration.

Supply Chain Analytics

Retailers and vendors in today’s retail market face the unenviable challenge of reducing costs and maintaining margins, despite falling overall sales and slow-to-recover consumer demand. One of the areas in which retailers are pushing back onto vendors, is inventory management, which for vendors too often translates into retail partners that reduce overall inventories and require tightened delivery deadlines.  Retailers view the supply chain as one of the key places in which costs can be reduced—or better yet, passed off onto someone else—as a means of keeping shareholders happy despite reduced POS sales.  Wal-Mart continues to set the pace in this area, reducing its overall inventories across the board, reducing its brand assortments, adjusting its purchasing methods and imposing tough penalties on those that miss their Must Arrive By Date (MABD).

Thus, the impetus has fallen to vendors to manage their supply chains more efficiently, so that the cost-savings being realized by their retailers’ inventory adjustments might trickle down to them as well, instead of becoming a proverbial albatross.  And while the “glass pipeline” may remain elusive, industry experts postulate that, “Visibility of supply chain costs have never been better.” Since, then, there remains continued pressure on everyone in the industry to reduce costs, there exists an opportunity now to address supply chain optimization unlike any time before.

As in all such processes, the first step in addressing this optimization is identifying the major challenges, which while not simple by any means, can be boiled down to three major focal points:

1. Reduce supply chain costs
2. Improving the responsiveness of the supply chain
3. Managing demand volatility and Variability

From an IT perspective, there are things that can be done with the data already being generated or received by most companies (even small ones!) to address some significant portion of each of these.

Reducing Supply Chain costs

While the operating costs of a supply chain are often the easiest numbers to point to and the most difficult for IT to address, there are data sources that can be leveraged to reduce costs.  For example, purchase orders, shipping data, and RTV (return to vendor) data is either generated internally or is received from retail partners (sometimes in a very straightforward EDI 812 document).  Unfortunately for many companies, these data sources come from disparate business systems and are stored in multiple locations, so tracking a single PO from the time the order was received through the supply chain to its delivery at a store or in a DC is an arduous task requiring proficiency in Excel and fraught with the potential for human error.  Further, when compounded by the volume of orders received that many vendors keep up with, the task of tracking becomes futile, since the actionable information it generates rarely is identified in time to take the given action, but rather is often merely a confirmation of what has already been made known by the retail partner that fined the vendor the late delivery or shorted pallet.  Thus, the lost efficiency of the analysts and the fees assessed by the retailers become additional costs in too many cases, and analysis of this data is simply not conducted.  However, those vendors that are able to aggressively track this data and address issues that may arise in a timely manner can avoid fees and improve their relationships with their retailers.  Unfortunately, upper management often struggles to see beyond the concrete costs figures and consider these less concrete but no less important opportunity for increased revenues or avoided fees.

Improving Responsiveness and Managing Demand Volatility and Variability

The delayed turnaround inherent in the difficulties discussed above relate directly to improving the responsiveness of the supply chain.  That is, supply chain utilization must address two areas of responsiveness:

1. Responding to existing issues
2. Responding to potential issues

Existing issues, as already discussed, are difficult to ID due to the disparate sources of data and the corresponding amount of time it takes to collate the information and determine what issues actually exist, since addressing existing issues is time-sensitive.

Potential issues are no less difficult, since these are often identified by considering all the aforementioned data sources and then including additional data sources such as POS data (from which forecasts are derived).  Mike Griswold, VP Retail for AMR Research, says, supply chain optimization “involves better forecasting methods and moving away from looking at warehouse shipments and toward POS and online sales data.” He goes on: many vendors fail to utilize POS data effectively for addressing supply chain issues because “it’s easier to get your arms around warehouse shipments because you’re dealing with weekly or twice-weekly sources of data.  When you get to POS, you’re getting down to day-level granularity for items and stores, and creating a forecast for three or four weeks out requires a fair amount of processing power.”  Of course, Griswold qualifies his position—forecasting based on POS and other data sources isn’t the final step.  “Retail is not designed to be an inventory holding area,” he says. “You may [get] an order for 1,000 televisions to be deployed across 100 stores, but not every store can handle 10 of each item.”

Thus, forecasts must be based on actual POS historical sales, current trends, other considered supply chain factors, and tempered by the limitations of the stores for which the forecasts are generated.  Retailers provide a shelf-space and assortment designation (called plan-o-grams, modulars, sets, etc.) for most vendors which allows vendors to consider these factors when filling orders, and combined with their own warehouse quantities and capacity, now a very comprehensive and useful picture emerges, from which one may then deduce those potential issues and act to address them, instead of reacting after they become a time-sensitive emergency.

How Accelerated Analytics®  Can Help You Optimize Your Supply Chain

Unfortunately, University of Pennsylvania professor of Operations and Information Management Marshall Fisher says the industry trend for vendors faced with the decision to have too little inventory and lose sales or have too much and be forced to liquidate leans toward the former. “Most companies are just moving along with less inventory. They are downsizing to meet less demand and accepting higher stockouts. The risk of a lost sale is smaller than having lots of unsold inventory.”

But what if you had an integrated database solution that tied all of the disparate sources of data together into a single source of truth, from which actionable decisions could be made on timely, comprehensive data? The Rainmaker Group™, creators of Accelerated Analytics®, was first a business intelligence (BI) company and its expertise in BI solutions can be leveraged to create such an integrated database behind the Accelerated Analytics® interface, creating a powerful yet user-friendly tool that business users need and which management can understand.

Advantages offered by Accelerated Analytics®:

• Integrated database to tie together all your data sources (P.O. files, Shipping documents, POS data, Plan-o-gram files, and more!) in a single location from which may be derived a single source of truth.
• User-friendly reporting solution which provides rapid access to any of the data in the system and reduces the overhead normally associated with the collation and calculation of data
• Exceptions reporting to identify shipping delays, stockouts, etc. automatically as often as required.
• Proven forecasting methodology to generate proactive forecasts based on actual sales and inventory information

Calculating the cost of out of stock's

Vendors know an out of stock or empty peg is a very bad thing, so it's hard to understand why most vendors are not managing their retail sales at a store and item level. Here is what we calculated for a vendor this week to estimate their lost sales due to out of stocks. The results were pretty eye opening.

This vendor has 4 retail customers. Retailer 1 has 3,600 stores, retailer 2 has 2,500 stores, retailer 3 has 1,800 stores and retailer 4 has 950 stores. Total retail stores = 8,850. Average in-stock % across all four retailers = 98% so approximately 177 stores are out of stock each week. Weekly unit sales for their top selling items average 6 per week so approximately 1,062 unit sales are being lost each week, which is roughly $15,000 in lost sales per week.

In other words this vendor is loosing over $750,000 per year in sales.

Using Retail data for Forecasting Demand and Merchandising Planning

Many vendors have started to using EDI 852 data or retailer portal data for sales and retail merchandising, but so far, only a few are using EDI 852 data for forecasting of demand.  But the reality is, vendor inventory at stores is often too low to meet demand and the rates of out of stocks have been increasing. It’s not a big surprise that retailers are maintaining less inventory in stores in this retail environment; the cost of excess inventory is simply too high and open to buy dollars are at an all time low. But with proper forecasting of demand, a vendor can help the retailer to better manage inventory and avoid out of stocks. The great benefit of EDI 852 for merchandising planning is that it is store/SKU level data. Since a typical retailer is forecasting demand at a category and market level, the variability in the rate of sales among stores in a market can be large.

A more accurate model for forecasting of demand is to start at the store/SKU level, calculating an average rate of sale for the store/SKU and then based on the inventory on hand at that store, a weeks of supply. When the weeks of supply for a store/SKU has been calculated, the vendor can compare against the lead time to replenish the store and work to put a true demand driven supply chain in place. This model, while more intensive for the vendor to manage, usually creates a far different picture of inventory needs than simply market level min/max replenishment.