FALL IS HERE…WILL ECONOMIC FACTORS RISE?

Economic indicators for August dropped, but 2016 overall is still growing.

Home Sales: Existing-home sales dropped .9% in August, marking the second month in a row of decline. However, year-over-year sales are up .8% over last year. While new home sales have been steadily rising, existing-home sales make up 90% of the home sale market. The National Association of Retailers reports that with the housing market in 2016 being the strongest sector of the economy over the past two years, the market may be a “victim of its own success”. Sales early this summer reached the highest levels since 2007, which has led to an increase in prices and a shortage of inventory. The average home price is $240,200, up 5.1% from 2015. The NAR feels an increase in home building would solve the issue. A Commerce Department report this week indicated building permits for single-family homes, the largest segment of the housing market, increased in August.

Manufacturing: The Conference Board reported its leading economic index, weighing 10 different economic indicators, dropped .2% in August. The decline in attributed to the average workweek of production workers and the amount of new orders. However, in the six-month period ending in August, the index increased .9% to an annual rate of 1.8%, which is in line with slow growth reported in gross domestic products. It is forecasted to grow at a 3% pace.

Retail Sales: US retail sales were up 1.9% in August, which was down from 2.4% in July. Retail sales had shown strong gains in the spring but has slowed through the summer months. Sales at department stores fell .6% and general merchandise store sales were flat. Building and garden equipment store sales dropped 1.4%. Retail sales are expected to be on the rise, with Halloween sales expected to boom and the 2016 holiday outlook expected to be positive, especially in e-commerce sales.

Sources: Wall St. Journal, Market Watch

HOUSING GAINS AND MILD WEATHER KEEP HOME DEPOT GOING STRONG

The Home Depot’s stock opened at a record-high level today, after announcing they topped first quarter expectations. Mild weather and a strong housing rebound are attributed to their successful first quarter. Revenue increased to $22.76 billion from $20.89 billion. Same store year over year sales rose 6.5% overall,up 7.4% in US stores.

Chairman and CEO Craig Menear said the company saw “week to week demand spikes caused by weather variability”. Home Depot originally forecasted 2016 earnings of $6.12 to $6.18 per share, with revenue predicted to increase 5.1-6% and same store sales to rise 3.7-4.5%. With its positive first quarter, Home Depot now predicts 2016 earnings of $6.27, sales to rise 6.3% and same store sales to rise 4.9%.

Having cited a strong housing rebound as another reason for a strong first quarter, steady growth for the housing market looks like it will continue. The National Association of Home Builders reported continued strong sentiment in May. Low mortgage rates are fueling demand that have boosted expectations for home sales in the next six months to the highest level of the year. More housing data is due out later this week, including housing starts and existing home sales.

Source: US News & World Report, Wall S. Journal

FIRST QUARTER 2016 CONSUMER ECONOMIC NEWS: SPENDING IS SOFT BUT HOME SALES RISE

As the first quarter of the year comes to a close, consumer spending stayed soft, rising just 0.1% for the third consecutive month. Incomes have been rising faster than that rate, indicating that Americans seem to be saving rather than spending. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth also slowed. Consumer spending generates more than 2/3 of total US economic output. Economists are concerned but a recession is not being indicated yet since the markets stabilized and the job market appears to be on track.

On the home sales front, there is more optimistic news. Pending home sales jumped 3.5% in February, the highest level in 7 months. Pending sales offer insights into future sales activity. The Realtors’ is forecasting 5.4 million existing-home sales this year, an increase of 2.4% from 2015. The housing market in 2015 was the strongest since before the recession and 2016 seems stronger yet.

Source: Wall St. Journal

US ECONOMY STARTS 2016 SLOW YET STEADY AS CONSUMER SPENDING GOES UP IN JANUARY

Consumer spending grew in January, showing an improvement in retail sales and home purchases. On Friday, the Commerce Department reported personal spending rose 0.5% in January from the prior month. Americans’ pretax earnings from salaries and investments increased at about the same pace. US consumer confidence dropped slightly in January but recovered slightly in February, a sign of slower but steady economic growth.

Reports Friday also revealed that gross domestic product advanced at 1%, higher than the estimate of 0.7%. Inflation still runs below the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.

Improvement in overall economic growth for the quarter ending January 30 was mainly due to the fact that companies pulled back on inventory less than originally expected. Economists have cautioned that first quarter growth may be slow as companies take longer to work through their well-replenished stock.

Source: The Wall St. Journal

US Pending Home Sales Index Rises Again in March

The National Association of Realtors announced its pending home sales index, which measures contract signings for purchases of previously owned homes, increased 1.1% to a level of 108.6 in March, up from 107.4 in February. The Wall Street Journal surveyed economists who predicted the increase. The index rose 11.1% in March from the previous year.

Home sales have stabilized since dropping a year ago, when interest rates began to rise. Completed existing-home sales increased 6.1% in March. While sales of newly-built homes declined in March from February, they still increased almost 20% from sales in March 2014.

The pending home sales for existing homes rose in the South and the West in March, but fell in the Northeast and Midwest.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

New Home Sales Rise 11.6 Percent In December

January 27, 2015

Sales of newly built, single-family homes rose 11.6 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 481,000 units, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

"This uptick is in line with what our builders are telling us in surveys and on the ground - that they are seeing increased traffic and more serious buyers in the market for single-family homes," said Tom Woods, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Blue Springs, Missouri.

"After a slow start to 2014 precipitated by bad weather conditions, new home sales have ramped up in the second half of the year," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.  "We can expect this momentum to continue into 2015 with the release of pent-up demand, particularly as existing home owners are trading up."

The inventory of new homes for sale rose to 219,000 in December, which is a 5.5 month supply at the current sales pace.  Regionally, new home sales rose 53.6 percent in the Northeast, 17.7 percent in the South and 3.1 percent in the West.  Sales dropped 11.5 percent in the Midwest.

Source: National Association of Home Builders

Housing Starts End Year On High Note

January 21, 2015

Led by solid gains in single-family housing production, nationwide housing starts rose 4.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.089 million units in December, according to newly released data from the U.S. Commerce Department.  For the year, overall housing starts topped 1 million units.

"Today's figures continue to be in line with our recent surveys, as builders have been becoming increasingly optimistic," said Kevin Kelly, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Delaware.

"With overall starts ending the year above 1 million units for the first time since 2007, we expect this momentum to carry forward in 2015," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.  "A growing labor market and strengthening economy will spur steady growth in single-family housing production in the year ahead."

Single-family housing production rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 728,000 in December while multifamily starts edged 1 percent lower to 361,000 units.

Combined single-family production was up in three out of four regions in December.  The Northeast posted a 12.5 percent gain, the South was up 8.8 percent and the West registered a 5.8 percent increase.  The Midwest posted a 13.3 percent decline.

Overall, permit issuance was down 1.9 percent in December to a rate of 1.032 million.  Single-family permits rose by 4.5 percent to 667,000 units while multifamily permits fell 12 percent to a rate of 365,000 units.

Regionally, permits were mixed in December.  The Midwest and South posted gains of 6.7 percent, respectively, while the Northeast and West dropped 16.8 percent and 20.5 percent.

Source: National Association of Home Builders

55+ Housing Market One Of The Most Robust Segments Of The Market In 2014

January 21, 2015

The 55+ housing market fared quite well in 2014, and 2015 should be no different, according to industry experts at a press conference held today at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) International Builders' Show (IBS) in Las Vegas.

"The 55+ housing market has been one of the healthiest segments of the overall housing market, and is likely to remain that way over the next several years," said Paul Emrath, NAHB's vice president of survey and housing policy research.  "When you look at age-restricted single-family starts, there were as many in the first half of 2014 as in all of 2012.  And going forward, the steady rise in the 55 and over population will signal an increased need for housing to accommodate that group."

Emrath also noted that builder confidence has steadily increased over the past several years.  "NAHB's 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI), a survey of members that measures builder and developer confidence for that market, has regularly posted year-over-year gains."

Builders and developers say they have seen an increase in not only the number of people who are generally interested in 55+ housing, but also in the number of people who are actually making the move to purchase a new home.  "We are seeing more consumers actually make the decision to buy a new home as they are able to sell their current home at an acceptable price," said Steve Bomberger, chairman of NAHB's 50+ Housing Council and president of Benchmark Builders Inc. in Wilmington, Delaware.  "We are busier now than ever before.  And I don't think it's going to slow down anytime soon."

"Consumers in this market are looking for a home that accommodates their specific needs, and 55+ builders and developers are able to create homes and communities that address these needs," said Timothy McCarthy, vice chairman of NAHB's 50+ Housing Council and managing partner of Traditions of American in Radnor, Pennsylvania.  "As the economy continues to improve, so does our overall business.  Builders in this market have the opportunity to have tremendous success since the population we are serving is so vast."

Source: National Association of Home Builders 

A More Robust Year For Housing In 2015

January 20, 2015

A strengthening labor market, low interest rates, improving mortgage availability and growing pent-up demand will help to significantly boost single-family housing production in the year ahead and move the housing recovery to higher ground, according to economists speaking at the International Builders' Show in Las Vegas today.

With economic growth near 4 percent for the last half of 2014 and employment gains averaging more than 250,000 per month last year, NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said these are the primary factors that have helped consumer confidence jump back to pre-recession levels.

"The signs point to a more robust year for housing," Crowe said.  "Household balance sheets are returning to normal levels, home owners' equity is increasing and significant pent-up demand is rising.  More than 7 million existing home sales were postponed or lost during the downturn; and while some are lost forever, we should see some catch-up."

The Forecast

NAHB is projecting 993,000 total housing starts in 2014, up 6.7 percent from last year's total of 930,000 units. 

Single-family production is expected to rise 26 percent in 2015 to 804,000 units.  "While a good beginning, this is still well below a normal level of 1.3 to 1.4 million single-family starts," Crowe said.

On the multifamily front, NAHB is anticipating 358,000 starts in 2015, up 2 percent from 352,000 last year.

The sale of new single-family homes is expected to hit 564,000 this year, a 29.3 percent increase above last year's 436,000 in sales.

Meanwhile, residential remodeling activity is expected to register a 3 percent gain this year over 2014.

The ongoing housing recovery will see single-family starts steadily climb from 49 percent of normal production at the end of the third quarter of 2014 all the way up to 90 percent of normal by the end of 2016, Crowe said.  Examining the recovery on a state level, by the end of 2016, the top 40 percent of states will be back to near normal production levels, compared to the bottom 20 percent, which will still be below 75 percent.

Where are All the New Households?

David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide Insurance, said the number of new household formations was far fewer in the current economic expansion than in previous recoveries.

"Given the job growth we've seen in 2014, there should have been better household formations," he said, adding that the slower pace may be because "the real acceleration in job growth has occurred just recently - in the last six months."

As the economy and job growth continue to strengthen in 2015, Berson said this will be a "significant factor to encourage people who have doubled up to move out on their own."

Moreover, he noted that the real slowdown in household formations has come from the Millennials, who have suffered disproportionately from stagnant wage growth and student debt.  However, he added that this key demographic is getting older and ready to set down roots.  "The leading edge are new in their young 30s," said Berson.  "Homeownership desire is much higher for those who are in their 30s than those in their 20s."

A Rising Economy Lifts Housing

Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft also foresees a good year for housing.

"We're projecting 3 percent economic growth in 2015, which would only be the second year in the last decade that we've seen growth at that level," said Nothaft.  "A stronger economy supports a rise in household formation and home buying."

Not quite as bullish as NAHB, Nothaft expects that housing starts will rise about 15 percent in 2015, and that home sales will be up 4 percent, which would be the best year for home sales since 2007.  He added that nationwide home prices this year should increase about 3.5 percent to 4 percent above last year's level.

With 30-year mortgages currently running at about 3.75 percent, Nothaft called them "dirt cheap" and said he expects rates to rise this year but remain at affordable levels.

"If we see economic growth running at 3 percent at an annualized rate, the Federal Reserve should begin to push up short-term interest rates by the second half of 2015," said Nothaft.  "We see mortgage rates going up to 4.5 percent on the high side at the end of this year, going from dirt cheap to cheap.  Overall, affordability for buyers in most markets will be well maintained in the context of strong job and income growth."

Source: National Association of Home Builders

Multifamily Housing Set To Remain Strong In 2015 As Demand From Renters Continues

January 21, 2015

The multifamily market has had strong demand in recent years and is set to remain that way in 2015 despite certain headwinds that could affect the industry, said panelists during a press conference at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) International Builders' Show (IBS) in Las Vegas.

The number of multifamily apartments forecast to be built is likely to reach a sustainable level that is higher than the levels of production in the past.  As the industry reaches that new plateau, the pace of construction is likely to level off in 2015 and into 2016.

"The multifamily industry is strong and producing more units than in previous cycles," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.  "The industry has shown dramatic increases in construction since the recession, but the level of increase will moderate as we approach equilibrium.  We are forecasting that 358,000 units will be developed in 2015 and 361,000 units in 2016.  One of the indicators for our forecast is NAHB's Multifamily Production Index, which is a survey of our members' attitudes toward the market.  They have been telling us that the market is very strong and is expected to stay that way for the forseeable future."

Although Dr. Crowe and other panelists are optimistic about the future of the multifamily housing market, there are still challenges that face the industry such as increasing costs and availability of labor.  But demand for apartments is strong enough for developers to proceed in most markets, the panelists noted.

One of the markets in particular within the multifamily industry that has strong demand is affordable rental housing.  "There are many families in America that have a great need for affordable housing, said Mike Costa, president and CEO of Highridge Costa Housing Partners LLC in Gardena, California.  "We have a long waiting list for our apartments at all of our communities.  There is a need for us to be building more."

Source: National Association of Home Builders

Builder Confidence Holds Steady In January

January 20, 2015

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes declined one point to 57, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released today.  This marks the third straight month that the index has hovered in the upper 50s range.

"After seven months above the key 50 benchmark, builder sentiment is reflecting the gradual improvement that is occuring in many markets throughout the nation," said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly, a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Delaware.

"January's HMI reading is in line with our forecast as we head into the new year," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.  "Steady economic growth, rising consumer confidence and a growing labor market will help the housing market continue to move forward in 2015."

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as "good," "fair" or "poor."  The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to very high," average" or "low to very low."  Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The HMI component gauging current sales conditions remained unchanged at 62 in January while the index measuring expectations for future sales dropped four points to 60 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell two points to 44.

Looking at the three-month averages for regional HMI scores, the West rose by four points to 66, the Midwest registered a three-point gain to 57 and the Northeast was up two points to 47.  The South dropped two points to 58.

Source: National Association of Home Builders

Residential Remodeling Market Set For Modest Growth In 2015

January 20, 2015

Residential remodeling is set for modest growth in 2015, according to experts at a press conference hosted by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Remodelers at the International Builders' Show (IBS) in Las Vegas.  Remodelers appearing on the panel agreed with the forecast, citing home owners' changing demographics and increased financial security.

NAHB projects that residential remodeling spending on owner-occupied single-family homes will increase a modest 3 percent in 2015 over 2014, and another 1.5 percent in 2016.

"Remodelers are responding to calls from home owners on steadier financial footing than recent years," said NAHB Remodelers Chairman Robert Criner, GMR, GMB, CAPS, CGP, a remodeler from Newport News, Virginia.  "From major kitchen remodels and bath facelifts to room additions, the members of NAHB Remodelers look forward to providing professional remodeling services in 2015."

"Among our clientele, a demographic shift towards remodeling urban homes is taking place," said Mike Nagel, CGR, CAPS, a remodeler from Chicago.  "Our recent jobs tend to be in the city and the projects have increased in size."

"Existing homes sales and house prices both hit soft spots in 2014 that dealt a glancing blow to residential remodeling businesses," said Paul Emrath, NAHB's vice president for survey and housing policy research.  "We expect those drags are behind us in 2015, an outlook consistent with the optimism expressed by remodeler members in our recent Remodeling Market Index (RMI) survey."

Source: National Association of Home Builders

Growth Slowing In Home Remodeling In 2015

January 15, 2015

As the broader housing market continues its sluggish recovery, growth in home improvement spending is also expected to soften throughout the coming year, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) released by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University.  The LIRA projects annual growth in home improvement spending will decelerate from 6.3% in the first quarter of 2015 to 1.6% by the third quarter.

"Due in part to weakening home sales last year, growth in remodeling spending is expected to deflate somewhat in 2015," says Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Joint Center.  "Homeownership rates continue to slide as lending remains tight and first-time homebuyers are not yet returning to the market."

"Although contractor sentiment has cooled in recent quarters, it remains favorable overall," says Abbe Will, a research analyst in the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center.  "House price gains are moderating but still strong and home sales appear to be turning a corner now, all of which bodes well for continued, if more moderate, home improvement gains for 2015."

Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies

Remodelers Optimistic About Market Improvement

January 15, 2015

The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a record high result of 60 in the final quarter of 2014.  A reading of 60 indicates remodelers' confidence in the quarter-over-quarter improvement in the remodeling market.

An RMI above 50 indicates that more remodelers report market activity is higher (compared to the prior quarter) than report it is lower.  The overall RMI averages ratings of current remodeling activity with indicators of future remodeling activity.

"The recent pace and volume of business has been a boon to our remodeler members' confidence in the recovery of the housing market," said NAHB Remodelers Chair Paul Sillivan, CAPS, CGR, CGP, of Waterville Valley, New Hampshire.  "The upward trajectory of the RMI results over the past year has shown that home owners are ready, willing and deciding to remodel."

The RMI's future market conditions index rose to 60 from 58 in the previous quarter.  All four of its subcomponents - calls for bids, amount of work committed for the next three months, backlog of jobs and appointments for proposals - increased from the previous quarter's reading.

The current market conditions component of the RMI also increased to 60 from 57 in the previous quarter.  The readings for all subcomponents, including large additions and small remodels as well as maintenance and repair, also saw increases.

"Even with some weakness in existing homes sales and house prices earlier in the year, remodelers are upbeat as 2014 closes," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.  "The consistent improvement in RMI results throughout 2014 are a sign of the gradual recovery of the remodeling market."

Source: National Association of Home Builders

New Home Sales Fall 1.6 Percent In November

December 23, 2014

Sales of newly built, single-family homes dropped 1.6 percent in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 438,000 units, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

"Though home sales have edged slightly lower, builders are reporting confidence in the market and are increasing their inventory in anticipation of future business," said Kevin Kelly, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Delaware.

"Sales have held in a relatively stable range during the past four months," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.  "As the labor market and broader economy continue to strengthen, we can expect the housing sector to gain momentum heading into next year."

The inventory of new homes for sale rose to 213,000 in November, which is a 5.8 month supply at the current sales pace.

Regionally, new home sales rose 14.8 percent in the West.  Sales dropped 12 percent in the Northeast, 6.3 percent in the Midwest and 6.4 percent in the South.

Source: National Association of Home Builders

Housing Production Falls 1.6 Percent In November

December 16, 2014

Following an upwardly revised rate last month, housing starts in November slipped 1.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.028 million units, according to newly released figures from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.  Three-month moving averages for total and single-family production were at their highest levels since the Great Recession.

"These numbers are in line with our latest surveys, which show that single-family builders are confident that the market is gradually recovering," said Kevin Kelly, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Delaware.

"Over the course of the year, the number of houses under construction has been on an upward trajectory, signaling that housing is moving forward," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.  "With strong demand, affordable home prices and favorable interest rates, we should see housing production continue to grow into 2015."

Single-family housing starts were down 5.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 677,000 units in November, while multifamily production rose 6.7 percent to 351,000 units.

Regionally in November, combined housing production increased in the Northeast, Midwest and West, with respective gains of 8.7 percent, 14.4 percent and 28.1 percent.  Total production dropped in the South by 19.5 percent.

Issuance of building permits registered a 5.2 percent loss to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.035 million units in November.  Multifamily permits dropped 11 percent to 396,000 units while single-family permits slipped 1.2 percent to 639,000.

Regionally, the Northeast posted an overall permit gain of 27.4 percent.  The Midwest, South and West registered respective losses of 7.3 percent, 10 percent and 5.6 percent.

Source: National Association of Home Builders

Builder Confidence Drops One Point In December

December 15, 2014

Following a four-point uptick last month, builder confidence in the maket for newly built single-family homes fell one point in December to a level of 57 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.

"Members in many markets across the country have seen their businesses improve over the course of the year, and we expect builders to remain confident in 2015," said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly, a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Delaware.

"After a sluggish start to 2014, the HMI has stabilized in the mid-to-high 50s index level trend for the past six months, which is consistent with our assessment that we are in a slow march back to normal," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.  "As we head into 2015, the housing market should continue to recover at a steady, gradual pace."

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as "good," "fair" or "poor."  The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to very high," "average" or "low to very low."  Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Two of the three HMI componenets posted slight losses in December.  The index gauging current sales conditions fell one point to 61, while the index measuring expectations for future sales dropped a single point to 65 and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers held steady at 45.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the West rose by four points to 62 and the Northeast edged up one point to 45, while the Midwest registered a three-point loss to 54 and the South dropped two points to 60.

Source: National Association of Home Builders

Developers' Sentiment About Multifamily Market Off Recent Peak, But Remains Positive

November 20, 2014

The Multifamily Production Index (MPI), released today by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), reached 54 in the third quarter, four points below the previous quarter's reading.  This is the 11th quarter with a reading of 50 or above.

The MPI measures builder and developer sentiment about current conditions in the apartment and condominium market on a scale of 0 to 100.  The index and all of its components are scaled so that any number over 50 indicates that more respondents report conditions are improving than report conditions are getting worse.

The MPI provides a composite measure of three key elements of the multifamily housing market: construction of low-rent units, market-rate rental units and "for-sale" units, or condominiums.  Although all three components fell from 2014 peaks in the second quarter, all remain at 50 or above.  The MPI component tracking low-rent units dipped one point to 51, market-rate rental units fell four points to 64 and for-sale units dropped six points to 50.

"Despite the slight drop in the index, multifamily developers remain positive about where the market is headed," said W. Dean Henry, CEO of Legacy Partners Residential in Foster City, California, and chairman of NAHB's Multifamily Leadership Board.  "Current growth in employment is strong enough to fuel demand for multifamily housing."

The Multifamily Vacancy Index (MVI), which measures the multifamily housing industry's perception of vacancies, rost three points to 41, with higher numbers indicating higher vacancies.  After peaking at 70 in the second quarter of 2009, the MVI improved consistently through 2010 and has been fairly stable since 2011.

"We are seeing the MPI return to the mid-50s level where it has been for much of the past three years," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.  "The moderation in multifamily builder sentiment aligns with a leveling off in production at a historically high level sufficient to keep up with rental demand."

Historically, the MPI and MVI have performed well as leading indicators of U.S. Census figures for multifamily starts and vacancy rates, providing invormation on likely movement in the Census figures one to three quarters in advance.

Source: National Association of Home Builders 

Single Family Starts Up 4.2 Percent While Overall Production Drops Slightly In October

November 19, 2014

Single family housing production in October reached its highest level since November 2013 while the more volatile multifamily sector brought combined nationwide starts activity down 2.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.009 million units, according to newly released figures from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

"The rise in single-family starts is more proof that the economy is firming and consumer confidence is growing," said Kevin Kelly, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Delaware.  "We expect continued upward momentum into next year."

"The increase in single-family starts shows that the housing market continues to recover at a steady, gradual pace," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.  "On the multifamily side, production is stabilizing above historic levels as demand for rental housing increases."

The 2.8 percent decline in overall starts in October was due primarily to a 15.4 percent decline on the multifamily side, which brought that sector's annual production pace to 313,000 units on a seasonally adjusted annual basis.  Meanwhile, single-family starts posted a 4.6 percent gain to 696,000 units.

Regionally in October, combined housing production dropped in the Northeast, Midwest and West, with respective losses of 16.4 percent, 18.5 percent and 10.9 percent.  Total production rose in the South by 10.1 percent.

Issuance of building permits registered a 4.8 percent gain to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.08 million units in October.  Multifamily permits rose 10 percent to 440,000 units while single-family permits increased 1.4 percent to 640,000 units.

Regionally, the Northeast and Midwest registered overall permit losses of 21.5 percent and 11.4 percent, respectively.  The South and West posted respective gains of 8.8 percent and 21.6 percent.

Source: National Association of Home Builders 

Builder Confidence Rises Four Points In November

November 18, 2014

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose four points to a level of 58 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.

"Growing confidence among consumers is what's fueling this optimism among builders," said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly, a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Delaware.  "Members in many areas of the country continue to see increasing buyer traffic and signed contracts."

"Low interest rates, affordable home prices and solid job creation are contributing to a steady housing recovery," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.  "After a slow start to the year, the HMI has remained above the 50-point benchmark for five consecutive months, and we expect the momentum to continue into 2015."

Dervied from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as "good," fair" or "poor."  The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to very high," "average" or "low to very low."  Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI components increased in November.  The index gauging current sales conditions rose five points to 62, while the index measuring expectations for future sales moved up two points to 66 and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers increased four points to 45.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose three points to 44, the South posted a four-point gain to 62, and the West edged up one point to 58.  The Midwest registered a two-point loss to 57.

Source: National Association of Home Builders