US MANUFACTURING INDEXES TAKE A DIVE; STOCK LEVELS REACT

The New York Empire Manufacturing Index dropped to -9.02 from April’s positive 9.56 in May, missing estimates for a slight decline to positive 7.0. Stocks reacted negatively to the news, but were offset by gains in the energy and industrial sectors. Domestically oriented US manufacturers are seeing steadier business with bright auto, housing and job markets, while global manufacturers are struggling in markets from Brazil to Europe to China.

“Domestic demand is what has been supporting the manufacturing sector overall and preventing a sharper downturn,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “Domestic-oriented sectors are faring relatively well.”

Earlier in May, the Institute for Supply Management also reported its index results, but showed manufacturing activity already falling from March. A strong US dollar and low oil prices, plus weakness overseas, depressed demand for US exports.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve also reported a decline in its index, reporting that mid-Atlantic manufacturing activity declined for the 8^th time in 9 months.

These reports maintain the overall picture of sluggish economic growth, and a newfound possibility that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as soon as June.

Sources: WSJ, Nasdaq.com, Investors.com, CalculatedRiskBlog.com 

JUNE CONSUMER SPENDING REPORT SHOWS OVERALL DECREASE BUT HOME IMPROVEMENT SPENDING IS STRONG

The US Consumer Spending Index increased 0.4 points in June. The percentage of consumers who rate the economy as excellent or good has continued to increase each month, at 30.9%, though is much lower than the 68% who felt the economy is fair or poor. When asked if personal finances were getting better or worse, 30.7% answered better, 33.1% answered worse and 35.2% answered the same.

The Retail Spending Index decreased 0.5 points in June. Expected spending for July slightly decreased in every category except discretionary personal entertainment expenses, which increased to 14.9% in June versus 13.7% in May. The category with the largest percentage of expected spending was household improvements at 22.9%. Expectations are that spending next month will remain about the same as 51.3% expect to spend the same. However, 28.2% say they will spend more in July, the majority being adults with children.

Source: Chain Store Guide

US CONSUMER SPENDING INDEX DECREASES IN JUNE

The US Consumer Spending Index decreased by .4 points in June. Confidence in the economy was mixed, as 10.6% of males reported the economy as excellent, versus only 2.9% of females reporting the same. 33.5% of respondents viewed the economy as excellent or good, but 65.2% reporting it fair or poor. When asked about personal finances, 46.8% of those identified as white rated it excellent or good. Those identified as black felt their personal finances were getting better at 37.5% versus 30.2% in May. Republicans in June increased in number who believe the economy is getting better, up 22.7% versus 18.9% in May.

Source: Chain Store Guide           

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index For The U.S. Increased Again

January 23, 2015

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in December to 121.1, following a 0.4 percent increase in November, and a 0.6 percent increase in October.

"December's gain in the LEI was driven by a majority of its components, suggesting the short-term outlook is getting brighter and the economy continues to build momentum," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board.  "Still, a lack of growth in residential construction and average weekly hours in manufacturing remains a concern.  Current economic conditions measured by the coincident indicators show employment and income gains are helping to keep the U.S. economy on a solid expansionary path despite some weakness in industrial production."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in December to 111.4, following a 0.5 percent increase in November, and a 0.3 percent increase in October.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in December to 115.0, following a 0.3 percent increase in November, and no change in October.

Source: The Conference Board

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index For The U.S. Increased Again

December 18, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in November to 105.5, following a 0.6 percent increase in October, and a 0.8 percent increase in September.

"The increase in the LEI signals continued moderate growth through the winter season," said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board.  "The biggest challenge has been, and remains, more income growth.  However, with labor market conditions tightening, we are seeing the first signs of wage growth starting to pick up."

"Widespread and persistent gains in the LEI point to strong underlying conditions in the U.S. economic expansion," said Ataman Ozyildrim, Economist at The Conference Board.  "The current situation, measured by the coincident economic index, has been improving steadily, with employment and industrial production making the largest contributions in November."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in November to 110.7, following a 0.2 percent increase in October, and a 0.3 percent increase in September.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in November to 125.4, following no change in October, and a 0.1 percent increase in September.

Source: The Conference Board 

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index Increased In November

December 8, 2014

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) increased in November.  The index now stands at 123.24, up from 122.8 (a downward revision) in October.  This represents a 6.1 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

"The Employment Trends Index increased for the 11th straight month in November, and recent solid improvements suggest that strong job growth is likely to continue into early next year," said Gad Levanon, Managing Director of Macroeconomic and Labor Market Research at The Conference Board.  "We will probably reach the natural rate of unemployment, 5.5 percent, within a few months, and these tighter labor market conditions should lead to acceleration in wage growth."

November's increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from five of the eight components.  In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Industrial Production, Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Number of Temporary Employees, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, and Job Openings.

The Employment Trends Inedex aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area.  Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Source: The Conference Board

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index For The U.S. Increased Again

November 20, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.9 percent in October to 105.2, following a 0.7 percent increase in September, and no change in August.

"The LEI rose sharply in October, with all components gaining over the previous six months," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board.  "Despite a negative contribution from stock prices in October, and minimal contributions from new orders for consumer goods and average workweek in manufacturing, the LEI suggests the U.S. expansion continues to be strong."

"The upward trend in the LEI points to continued economic growth through the holiday season and into early 2015," said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board.  "This is consistent with our outlook for relatively good, but not great, consumer demand over the near term.  Going forward, there are continued concerns about slow business investment and lackluster income growth."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in October to 110.2, following a 0.3 percent increase in September, and a 0.1 percent increase in August.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in October to 124.9, following a 0.1 percent increase in September, and a 0.5 percent increase in August.

Source: The Conference Board

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index Increased In October

November 10, 2014

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) increased in October.  The index now stands at 123.09, up from 121.91 (an upward revision) in September.  This represents a 7.7 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

"The Employment Trends Index continues to increase rapidly, with all eight components improving in October," said Gad Levanon, Managing Director of Macroeconomic and Labor Market Research at The Conference Board.  "The index is signaling solid job growth through the winter.  As a result, we could see the unemployment rate reach its natural rate of 5.5 percent by early Spring."

October's increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from all eight components.  In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Number of Temporary Employees, Industrial Production, Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get," Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, and Job Openings.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area.  Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Source:The Conference Board

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index For The U.S. Increased In September

October 23, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.8 percent in September to 104.4, following no change in August, and a 1.1 percent increase in July.

"The LEI picked up in September, after no change in August, and the strengths among its components have been very widespread over the past six months," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board.  "The outlook for improving employment and further income growth are expected to support the moderate expansion in the U.S. economy for the remainder of the year."

"The financial markets are reflecting turmoil and unease, but the data on the leading indicators continue to suggest moderate growth in the short-term," said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board.  "Meanwhile, the weak advances in the housing market remain a bigger risk to the outlook than short-term financial gyrations."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in September to 110.2, following a 0.1 percent increase in August, and a 0.3 percent increase in July.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in September to 125.1, following a 0.3 percent increase in August, and a 0.2 percent increase in July.

Source: The Conference Board

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index Increased In September Upward Momentum Continues

October 6, 2014

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) increased in September.  The index now stands at 121.68, up from 121.32 (an upward revision) in August.  This represents a 6.1 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

"The Employment Trends Index increased for the ninth consecutive month, signaling solid job growth through year end," said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board.  "A combination of positive and negative forces has been driving the rapid decline in the unemployment rate in recent years.  Hiring is strong, but productivity growth is weak, and the participation rate continues to decline.  None show signs of reversing."

September's increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from six of its eight components.  In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Industrial Production, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time Workers, Number of Temporary Employees, and Job Openings.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area.  Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Source: The Conference Board

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index For The U.S. Increased In August

September 19, 2012

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in August to 103.8, following a 1.1 percent increase in July, and a 0.7 percent increase in June.

"The LEI continued to rise in August, although at a slower rate than in July," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board.  "The LEI's six-month growth trend has been held back slightly by lackluster contributions from housing permits and new orders for nondefense capital orders.  Despite concerns about investment picking up, the economy should continue expanding at a moderate pace for the remainder of the year."

"The leading indicators point to an economy that is continuing to gain traction, but most likely won't repeat its stellar second quarter performance in the second half," said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board.  "Meanwhile, the CEI, a measure of current economic activity, continued to expand through August, amid improving personal income, employment and retail sales.  However, industrial production registered a slight decrease for the first time in seven months."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in August to 109.7, following a 0.1 percent increase in July, and a 0.3 percent increase in June.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in August to 125.1, following a 0.3 percent increase in July, and a 0.4 percent increase in June.

Source: The Conference Board

Unemployment Rates Remain Mixed In Europe

September 11, 2014

In July, unemployment rates remained mixed in Europe, according to unemployment rates and employment growth data compiled and standardized by The Conference Board International Labor Comparisons (ILC) program.

Unemployment decreased in Germany (from 5.0 to 4.9 percent), the Netherlands (from 6.8 to 6.7 percent) and Sweden (from 7.9 to 7.7 precent), but increased in France (from 9.8 to 9.9 percent) and Italy (from 12.5 to 12.7 percent).

"The variation in recent unemployment trends throughout Europe - remaining elevated and increasing in France and Italy while gradually coming down in the Netherlands and Sweden - highlights the mixed paths toward labor market recovery in the region," said Elizabeth Crofoot, Senior Economist with the International Labor Comparisons Program at The Conference Board.  "Contrary to most other European markets, Germany shows signs of existing labor market shortages given an overall upward trend in employment and historically low and declining unemployment rates, dipping below 5 percent for the first time since unification in 1991."

In the U.S., joblessness rose (from 6.1 to 6.2 percent) after four straight months of steady or declining unemployment.  Australia and Japan also saw the unemployment rate rise, while remaining stable in Canada.  While Japan's unemployment rate remains the lowest of all countries compared (3.2 percent) and has largely been on a downward trend since September 2013, it has increased in the previous two consecutive months.

Source: The Conference Board

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index Released Today

September 8, 2014

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index increased in August.  The index now stands at 121.29, up from 120.62 (an upward revision) in July.  This represents a 6.4 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

"The strong increase in the Employment Trends Index in recent months signals robust job growth through the fall," said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board.  "The disappointing employment numbers for August seem to be a one month deviation from a stronger trend."

Augus'ts increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from seven of its eight components.  In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Industrial Production, Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time Workers, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Number of Temporary Employees, Job Openings, and Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get."

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area.  Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregaed into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

The Conference Board

Inflation Continues To Slow In Most European Economies

September 4, 2014

In July, 2014, annual inflation as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) declined in 10 of the 16 economies compared, including in the U.S., Japan and the Euro Area as a whole.

Spain experienced the largest decline in price growth (from 0.0 to -0.4 percent), returning to deflationary territory for the second time this year.  Inflation in Switzerland (-0.1 percent) was unchanged, meaning that the Swiss economy also remains in a deflationary environment.  Prices accelerated substantially in Norway (from 1.8 to 2.2 percent), followed by slight gains in Denmark (from 0.4 to 0.5 percent).

"In July, inflation continued to slow in most European economis compared and reached a five year low in France, Italy, Spain, and Belgium," said Elizabeth Crofoot, Senior Economist with the International Labor Comparisons program at The Conference Board.  "German inflation has also been on a slowing path, declining from nearly 2 percent 12 months ago to 0.8 percent in July.  As price growth is one factor determining cost competitiveness, slowing German prices makes it increasingly difficult for firms in the Euro Area to compete against the region's largest economy without increases in productivity or further cost reductions."

July inflation remains below 1 percent in all Euro Area countries compared, except Austria (1.7 percent).  Inflation is above 1 percent in Japan (4.1 percent), Norway (2.2 percent), the U.S. (1.8 percent) and the United Kingdom (1.6 percent).

Source: The Conference Board

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index For The U.S. Increased In July

August 21, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.9 percent in July to 102.2, following a 0.6 percent increase in June, and a 0.6 percent increase in May.

"The LEI improved sharply in July, suggesting that the economy is gaining traction and growth and should continue at a strong pace for the remainder of the year," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board.  "Although housing has been one of the weakest components this year, the sharp gain in building permits helped boost the LEI in July.  Financial markets and labor market conditions have also supported recent gains, but business spending indicators remain soft and their contribution marginal."

"The pace of economic activity remained reasonably strong in July," said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board.  "Although retail sales were a little disappointing, hiring and industrial activity improved.  July's increase in the LEI, coupled with its accelerating growth trend, points to stronger economic growth over the coming months."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in July to 109.6, following a 0.3 percent increase in June, and a 0.2 percent increase in May.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in July to 124.6, following a 0.5 percent increase in June, and a 0.4 percent increase in May.

Source: The Conference Board

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index Increased In July

August 4, 2014

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) increased in July.  The index now stands at 120.31, up from 119.92 (an upward revision) in June.  This represents a 6.6 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

"The six-month growth rate in the Employment Trends Index is the strongest in over two years, suggesting solid job growth is likely to continue in the coming months," said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board.  "The pickup in economic activity in recent months will likely increase the need and willingness of employers to accelerate hiring."

July's increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from five of its eight components.  In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Job Openings, Industrial Production, Number of Temporary Employees, and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area.  Aggregating individual indicators into a compopsite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index iclude:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Source: The Conference Board

Inflation Remains Mixed Across Euro Area, Declines In U.S. And Japan

July 31, 2014

In June 2014, annual inflation as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) declined in the U.S. and Japan, but was mixed across Euro Area countries compared.

Although inflation remained steady in the Euro Area as a whole, price growth slowed in Belgium (from 0.8 to 0.7 percent), France (from 0.8 to 0.6 percent), Italy (from 0.4 to 0.2 percent) and Spain (from 0.2 to 0.0 percent), while it accelerated in Germany (from 0.6 to 1.0 percent), Austria (from 1.5 to 1.7 percent) and the Netherlands (from 0.1 to 0.3 percent).  Outside the Eurozone, Sweden (0.5 percent), the United Kingdom (1.9 percent), Norway (1.8 percent) and Denmark (0.4 percent) also experienced rising prices.  Switzerland experienced the largest decline in inflation (from 0.2 to -0.1 percent), returning to deflationary territory after two months of positive price growth.

"In June, inflation in the Euro Area as a whole held steady at its lowest level (0.5 percent) since the Great Recession," said Elizabeth Crofoot, Senior Economist with the International Labor Comparisons program at The Conference Board.  "But the broad range of inflation rates among membetr states - from negative or zero to nearly two percent - highlights the difficulty in setting a common monetary policy that will have a common impact on prices.  However in Japan, the slight dip in inflation (from 4.5 to 4.4 percent), the first since January, suggests that the combined impact of recent monetary expansion and an increased sales tax may be easing."

June inflation remains below 1 percent in all Euro Area countries compared, except Austria (1.7 percent) and Germany (1.0 percent).  Inflation is also above 1 percent in Japan (4.4 percent), the U.S. (1.9 percent) and Norway (1.8 percent).  June inflation was lower than price growth a year ago in all countries compared except Japan, the U.S., and Sweden.

Source: The Conference Board

Gross Domestic Product By Industry: First Quarter 2014

July 25, 2014

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the first quarter of 2014 after increasing 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013.  Both private services and goods-producing industries contributed to the decrease, while the government sector increased slightly.  Durable-goods manufacturing; wholesale trade; and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting were the leading contributors to the decrease in GDP.  Overall, 16 of 22 industry groups contributed to the 2.9 percent decrease in U.S. economic activity.

• Durable-goods manufacturing real value added - a measure of an industry's contribution to GDP - decreased 8.4 percent after an increase of 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013.
• Wholesale trade decreased 8.7 percent after an increase of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter.
• Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting decreased 31 percent after a decrease of 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter.

The downturn in the first quarter of 2014 was widespread.  Overall, 19 out of 22 industry groups contributed to the 5.5 percentage points downturn in real GDP; the leading contributors to the downturn were wholesale trade; professional, scientific, and technical services; and durable-goods manufacturing.

Other highlights:

• Growth in real value added slowed for nondurable-goods manufacturing in the first quarter, however, the industry group contributed the largest positive offset to the decrease in real GDP in the first quarter.  Nondurable-goods manufacturing, which includes petroleum and coal product manufacturing, increased 15.1 percent in the first quarter of 2014, after an increase of 18.6 percent in the fourth quarter.
• Professional, scientific, and technical services turned down in the first quarter, decreasing 6.5 percent after increasing 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter.  Professional, scientific, and technical services includes industries such as legal services, engineering, and administrative management and management consulting services.
• Federal government turned up 3.2 percent in the first quarter - its first increase since the second quarter of 2011.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index For The U.S. Increases

July 18, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in June to 102.2, following a 0.7 percent increase in May, and a 0.3 percent increase in April.

"Broad-based increases in the LEI over the last six months signal an economy that is expanding in the near term and may even somewhat accelerate in the second half," said Ataman Ozyildrim, Economist at The Conference Board.  "Housing permits, the weakest indicator during this period, reflects some risk to this improving outlook.  But favorable financial conditions, generally positive trends in the labor markets and the outlook for new orders in manufacturing have offset the housing market weakness over the past six months."

"The CEI shows the pace of economic activity continued to expand moderately through June," said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board.  "Stronger consumer demand driven by sustained job gains and improving confidence remains the main source of improvement for the U.S. economy.  In addition to a stronger market, more business investment could also provide an upside to the overall economy."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in June to 109.2, following a 0.3 percent increase in May, and a 0.2 percent increase in April.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in June to 124.4, following a 0.3 percent increase in May, and a 0.4 percent increase in April.

Source: The Conference Board

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index Increased In June

July 7, 2014

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) increased in June.  The index now stands at 119.62, up from 119.03 (an upward revision) in May.  This represents a 6.3 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

"The rapid increase in the Employment Trends Index in recent months suggests that strong job growth is likely to continue through the summer," said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board.  "While the strong labor market signals an improvement in economic growth, the key factor is that the average productivity of workers will need to rise as well."

June's increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from seven of its eight components.  In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were:  Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Industrial Production, Number of Temporary Employees, Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get," Job Openings, and Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area.  Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Source: The Conference Board