ACCELERATED ANALYTICS LUXURY FRAGRANCE VENDORS POISED TO GROW 5.9% BY 2026

Future Market Insights released a report today that estimates the global perfume market is estimated to reach $39.67 billion by the end of this year, and expects growth of this segment of 5.9% over the next ten years. The firm looked at several Accelerated Analytics beauty and fragrance companies for its report, including Estee Lauder Companies, LVMH, Coty Inc., L’Oreal International, Elizabeth Arden Inc., Shiseido Co. Ltd., Puig and Parlux/Perfumania Holdings Inc.

The reports found that demand is being bolstered by the millennial consumer segment, as well as increased online retail strategies from these companies. Female fragrances are leading the increase, with year-over-year increases from 4-5.2% over 2015 to 2026. While online retailing is the most attractive shopping means to this segment of consumers, in-store remains 80.5% of the market share, due to the personal and olfactory nature of fragrance marketing.

Millennials are drawn to products that have natural ingredients. Fragrance vendors are offering more “Eau Fraiche” (alcohol free) products.

The Western Europe market is the largest consumer, and expected growth consumer, of fragrance products, followed by North America.

To get more retail insights from the Accelerated Analytics team, register for our (free) monthly Retail Industry Briefing Book here.

Source: Luxury Daily

FALL IS HERE…WILL ECONOMIC FACTORS RISE?

Economic indicators for August dropped, but 2016 overall is still growing.

Home Sales: Existing-home sales dropped .9% in August, marking the second month in a row of decline. However, year-over-year sales are up .8% over last year. While new home sales have been steadily rising, existing-home sales make up 90% of the home sale market. The National Association of Retailers reports that with the housing market in 2016 being the strongest sector of the economy over the past two years, the market may be a “victim of its own success”. Sales early this summer reached the highest levels since 2007, which has led to an increase in prices and a shortage of inventory. The average home price is $240,200, up 5.1% from 2015. The NAR feels an increase in home building would solve the issue. A Commerce Department report this week indicated building permits for single-family homes, the largest segment of the housing market, increased in August.

Manufacturing: The Conference Board reported its leading economic index, weighing 10 different economic indicators, dropped .2% in August. The decline in attributed to the average workweek of production workers and the amount of new orders. However, in the six-month period ending in August, the index increased .9% to an annual rate of 1.8%, which is in line with slow growth reported in gross domestic products. It is forecasted to grow at a 3% pace.

Retail Sales: US retail sales were up 1.9% in August, which was down from 2.4% in July. Retail sales had shown strong gains in the spring but has slowed through the summer months. Sales at department stores fell .6% and general merchandise store sales were flat. Building and garden equipment store sales dropped 1.4%. Retail sales are expected to be on the rise, with Halloween sales expected to boom and the 2016 holiday outlook expected to be positive, especially in e-commerce sales.

Sources: Wall St. Journal, Market Watch

WILL RETAILER DISCOUNTING HARM BRAND VALUE?

In an effort to get out of this year’s retail doldrums, department store retailers have been reducing prices on fashion brands they typically do not run promotions on. Promotions reached an all-time high in the last quarter, and in July over 2,000 emails advertising specials were sent to shoppers across the US. Some prices in May, June and July were reduced as much as 80%.

Luxury brands most heavily discounted included Michael Kors, Ralph Lauren and Eileen Fisher. Michael Kors is trying to rectify the situation by ending all coupons and friends-and-family sales at department stores. Ralph Lauren is reducing excess inventory. The brands hold the power with the ability to push sales in their own stores and online web sites.

How much are department stores discounting? Saks is leading with an average discount of 60%. Neiman Marcus’s average is around 50% and Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom are averaging 40% discounts. 

With massive discounting, consumers will expect these luxury brands to be available at the lower price points, bringing down the value of the brand.

Source: Bloomberg Pursuits, Chain Store Age

TAKEAWAYS FROM ACCELERATED ANALYTICS’ GS1 CONNECT 2016 SESSION: ‘The Importance and Value of Data Sharing – Using Point-of-Sale Data to Deliver Outstanding Customer Experiences’

I had the opportunity to lead this session last week and came back with some takeaways that I wanted to share, as I feel they are reflective of the state of retail today and how retailers and vendors are using point-of-sale data to manage their business in this time of OMNI-channel, customer-experience driven retail.

Customers want a single-vision of brands and be able to have a consistent, complete and winning experience every time they shop, in whatever channel they shop in. To ensure products are available when and where the customer shops, retailers need real-time inventory visibility, a seamless order management system and the ability to deliver. Retailers and brands realize they need to work together to have both a single view of the customer and a single view of their data in order to be successful.

Some interesting, yet not surprising, statistics were gathered from the retailers and vendors represented in the room. When asked about managing their POS data week to week, 66% were using POS data that was not provided via an EDI 852 file, eliminating their ability to automate the collection and processing of the data electronically, and instead having to work with multiple sources and formats of data. This process of data management and then trying to create usable reports to have meaningful partnership conversations between retailer and vendor is extremely time consuming: 83% of the retailers in the room spend 11-50+ hours per week managing and processing their POS data. More staggering was 95% of the vendors in the session were spending 11-50+ hours per week: 30% spending 11-20 hours, 40% spending 25-50 hours and 25% over 50 hours per week!

The good news is over half of the attendees in the room felt they are getting better at managing and using POS data each week, but 30% still admit to ‘Barely Using’ their POS data. Recognizing that heavy resources are needed to use POS data, especially on the vendor side, is making vendors ask, “Do we build an in-house solution to manage this, or outsource it?” CLICK HERE for an infographic detailing the pros and cons of each, and the differences in resource and financial investment.

Based on the time and effort being made by most of those represented, it is clear that POS data sharing is important for effective collaboration between retailers and vendors to “get it right for the customer”. POS data can be used to not just track units sold overall, but can give product/store level details on out-of-stocks, weeks of supply, sell thru %, average sales, geographic trends, inventory investment and lost sales opportunities. CLICK HERE for our industry sell thru % guidelines infographic.

We need to do everything we can to exceed our customers’ expectations and deliver an outstanding experience for them when they come across our brand. Sharing POS data and then using it to partner together to analyze it will help shape the customers’ experiences and give us inventory visibility and fulfillment across channels to meet customer expectations.

Want to learn more? Contact Jennifer@AcceleratedAnalytics.com to start a conversation. CLICK HERE to download whitepapers on analyzing POS data like a pro.

- Jennifer Freyer, Director of Sales and Marketing, Accelerated Analytics

RETAIL STOCK MARKET WAS A BEAR YESTERDAY, DROPPING TO WORST LEVELS SINCE 2011

There were stock declines all over the retail spectrum yesterday, as consumers spend less than expected and shift spending from traditional department stores and retailers to nontraditional online retailers. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF closed down 4.44%, the worst since August 18, 2011 and down 15% over the last 12 months.

Macy’s is getting the most news of the day, closing down 15.2%. This caused CEO Terry Lundgren to lower its full-year forecast. Quarterly earnings for Macy’s exceeded expectations, but revenue came in below estimates.

April retail sales will be announced on Friday morning, and analysts are waiting to see what stock impact these results will have.

Other retailers with dropped stock levels yesterday include Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Nike, Fossil, and Disney, who dropped 4.04%, its worst day since January 15.

Source: CNBC, Wall St Journal

ULTA SHOWS HOW ATTRACTIVE THE BEAUTY MARKET CAN BE

Ulta Salon, a specialty beauty retailer, is expanding its store count across the U.S. while reporting a 12.5% same-store sales increase during the fourth quarter. There were several factors attributed to their performance. Ulta’s gross margins got a lift by their shift from coupons to more targeted offers. They also managed to boost traffic into the stores. They added 100 new stores in 2015, seeing net revenues increase 21% to reach $1.27 billion. With its plans to add 100 more stores in 2016, taking them to over 1,000 stores total, it will build on its success in small markets and downtown/urban locations.

The beauty segment is attractive to department store retailers, because shoppers make frequent repeat visits when they run out of a certain product. Several retailers, such as Kohl’s and Sephora-Inside-JC Penney’s, have specific plans to expand their beauty departments.

Accelerated Analytics’ has a broad base of beauty vendor customers, such as L’Oreal, LVMH, Parlux Fragrances, Anastasia Beverly Hills, Chanel, Coty, Estee Lauder and more. Learn about our beauty industry reporting solutions at http://www.acceleratedanalytics.com/beauty/

Source: CNBC

The Role of Analytics in Retail

The role of analytics in retail has evolved substantially over the past few years and it’s having a significant positive impact.  The days of hearing a vendor say “Oh, we get an EDI 852 but we don’t really do anything with it” are starting to fade into the rear view mirror.  This blog post will discuss some of the mega trends we see occurring in business intelligence in retail and their impact on demand planning and forecasting.   

Retailers are much more open to sharing point of sale (POS) data with vendors now than they were a few years ago.  Wal-Mart paved the road with Retail Link, which gives vendors access to a wealth of data, and most other retailers use EDI 852 or a web site of some kind to make data available.  [As a side note there are some major retailers like ACE Hardware and Publix that still refuse to share POS data, which is pretty amazing]  Mega-trend:  retailers will begin to expand the metrics they share and they will slowly move toward providing daily data.  We have recently seen retailers begin to share on hand data and sales dollars which they had not shared previously.  Providing those additional data elements enables category management and demand planners to greatly expand their analytics.  We are also seeing retailers begin to make daily data available, which is probably the most exciting development in business intelligence for retail.  Demand planning and forecasting for retail is dramatically improved by daily data vs. weekly data and daily data creates the opportunity for things like weather analysis.   

Key performance indicators for retail are pretty easy to define and calculate.   Sell-through, weeks of supply, year over year comp or % change, gross margin, gross margin return on investment, etc.    We find however that many demand planners do not have the time or tools to monitor KPI’s at the store / SKU level of detail which diminishes the value that should be realized.   Mega-trend: vendors are using cloud based software as a service (SaaS) to get access to sophisticated retail reporting without having to invest into business intelligence tools and a bunch of expensive development.   Retail point of sale reporting and analytics can basically be purchased ‘out of the box’ and then customized to fit your precise business needs in a very small amount of time.  When a large customer like The Home Depot is asking you to get into the POS data, you don’t have the luxury of waiting on your IT team.   Outsourcing your retail POS reporting and analytics provides a very fast path to keeping your customer happy. 

Mega-trend: Vendors use of EDI 852 and POS analytics will become more and more sophisticated.    Not that long ago, when a vendor invested in POS reporting, they were getting ahead of their peers by using technology to improve their business.  They would build relatively simple retail dashboards with key performance indicators for retail stores, like units and dollars sold.  Today, however, we are seeing increasingly complex analysis for demand planning and forecasting, complex retail replenishment models, category management and even weather and demographic analysis.  This is a natural evolution of business intelligence in retail and it is driven by the availability of SaaS tools and very real results that vendors are experiencing.