October 2014 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business - PMI At 59%

November 3, 2014

New Orders, Employment and Production Growing; Inventories Growing; Supplier Deliveries Slowing

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in October for the 17th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 65th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. 

The report was issued today by Bradley J.  Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.  "The October PMI registered 59 percent, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from September's reading of 56.6 percent, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing.  The New Orders Index registered 65.8 percent, an increase of 5.8 percentage points from the 60 percent reading in September, indicating growth in new orders for the 17th consecutive month.  The Production Index registered 64.8 percent, 0.2 percentage point above the September reading of 64.6 percent.  The Employment Index grew for the 16th consecutive month, registering 55.5 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point above the September reading of 54.6 percent.  Inventories of raw materials registered 52.5 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from the September reading of 51.5 percent, indicating growth in inventories for the third consecutive month.  Comments from the panel generally cite positive business conditions, with growth in demand and production volumes."

Manufacturing expanded in October as the PMI registered 59 percent, an increase of 2.4 percentage points when compared to September's reading of 56.6 percent.  This is the same reading as reported in August 2014, which is the highest reading for the index since March of 2011 when it registered 59.1 percent.  A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 43.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.  Therefore, the October PMI indicates growth for the 65th consecutive month in the overall economy, and indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 17th consecutive month.  Holcomb stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through October (55.6 percent) corresponds to a 4.1 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.  In addition, if the PMI for October (59 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 5.2 percent increase in real GDP annually."

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 16 are reporting growth in October.

Source: Institute for Supply Management