October Retail Sales Rebound After Shadows Of Doubt

November 14, 2014

October's retail sales report helps strengthen the National Retail Federation's holiday expectations for sales growth of 4.1 percent, and offers an optimistic look ahead for the busiest consumer spending time of the year.  According to NRF, October retail sales, excluding autos, gas and restaurants, grew a healthy 0.7 percent month-to-month seasonally adjusted over September, and 44 percent unadjusted year-over-year.  NRF also finds the three-month moving average for year-over-year growth is a steady 3.9 percent.

"Consumers regained the energy to spend again in October, removing some of the concerns surrounding the slower consumer spending results seen as of late," said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.  "Much of the spending power stems from lower gas prices, accelerated job growth, wages and salary gains, and the recent rise in stock prices.  We expect that the next two months will bring forth confident holiday shoppers who have the ability and desire to spend on gifts and more."

The Commerce Department found overall October retail sales increased 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted over September and 4.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

"Consumers have once again proven resilient to the pressures they are still facing from a slow-moving economic recovery, receiving a helping hand from lower costs at the pump and gains in the labor market," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "Moving forward, retailers will continue to find ways to entice holiday shoppers with great bargains while also focusing on other value-added promotions.  It is clear that Americans have the spending power, they just need to see continued improvement in the economy before they return to shopping habits from pre-recession."

All business lines, excluding electronics, showed gains on a month-to-month basis.

• Clothing and clothing accessories sales increased 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted over September and a healthy 1.3 percent unadjusted from 2013.
• Non-store sales increased a robust 1.9 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month, and 8.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
• Sporting goods sales increased a solid 1.2 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month, and 3.6 percent unadjusted over 2013.
• Sales at electronics companies decreased 1.6 percent seasonally adjusted from the previous month, possibly as a result of fall-off from the Apple iPhone roll-out in September, but increased 2.8 percent year-over-year.
• Furniture and home furnishing sales increased 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted from September, and 2 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

Source: National Retail Federation