The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Declines

November 25, 2014

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had rebounded in October, declined in November.  The index now stands at 88.7, down from 94.1 in October.  The Present Situation Index declined from 94.4 to 91.3, while the Expectations Index decreased sharply to 87.0 from 93.8 in October.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: "Consumer confidence retreated in November, primarily due to reduced optimism in the short-term outlook.  Consumers were somewhat less positive about current conditions and the present state of the job market; moreover, their optimism in the short-term outlook in both areas has waned.  However, income expectations were virtually unchanged and gas prices remain low, which should help boost holiday sales."

Consumers' assessment of present-day conditions was moderately less favorable in November than in October.  The proportion saying business conditions are "good" decreased from 24.7 percent to 24.0 percent, while those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased from 21.3 percent to 22.4 percent.  Consumers' assessment of the job market was slightly less favorable, with the proportion stating jobs are "plentiful" falling from 16.5 percent to 16.0 percent, and those claiming jobs are "hard to get" increasing marginally from 29.0 percent to 29.2 percent.

Consumers' optimism, which had improved in October, retreated in November.  The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months decreased from 19.4 percent to 17.6 percent, while those expecting business conditions to worsen rose from 8.9 percent to 10.7 percent.  Consumers' outlook for the labor market was also less optimistic.  Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead decreased from 16.0 percent to 15.0 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs rose from 14.1 percent to 16.4 percent.  The proportion of consumers expecting growth in their incomes edged down from 16.7 percent to 16.3 percent, while the proportion expecting a drop in income was virtually unchanged at 11.4 percent compared to 11.3 percent in October.

Source: The Conference Board