The Conference Board Employment Trends Index Increased In July

August 4, 2014

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) increased in July.  The index now stands at 120.31, up from 119.92 (an upward revision) in June.  This represents a 6.6 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

"The six-month growth rate in the Employment Trends Index is the strongest in over two years, suggesting solid job growth is likely to continue in the coming months," said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board.  "The pickup in economic activity in recent months will likely increase the need and willingness of employers to accelerate hiring."

July's increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from five of its eight components.  In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Job Openings, Industrial Production, Number of Temporary Employees, and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area.  Aggregating individual indicators into a compopsite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index iclude:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Source: The Conference Board