Retail Sales Increase 0.6 Percent In November; In Line With NRF Holiday Forecast

December 11, 2014

Discounting throughout the month shifted consumer spending behavior

Holiday shoppers took advantage of deep discounting and early sales to lift retail spending in November, the National Retail Federation said today.  Not including automobiles, gasoline stations or restaurants, retail sales increased 0.6 percent seasonally-adjusted over October and 3.2 percent unadjusted over November 2013.  Gains were consistent with NRF's holiday sales forecast, which anticipates an increase of 4.1 percent over last year.

"As we've said all along, retailers are optimistic that they will see healthy holiday sales gains this year," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.  "November sales results confirm that optimism, and we are steadfast in our belief that we are on track to reach the 4.1 percent growth in holiday sales that NRF forecasted in October."

"Consumer trends show that the shopping experience continues to evolve for both retailers and consumers," Shay said.  "Shoppers this holiday season are seizing opportunities to take advantage of early promotions and showing signs they may wait until the end of the season when promotions are even greater."

"It is important to remember that for most retailers, the holiday season is a marathon, not a sprint, and there are plenty of important holiday shopping days ahead of us, including the week leading up to Super Saturday - the day many expect will be the biggest shopping day of the season," Shay said.

"Increasing wages combined with lower gas prices are providing retailers with an early holiday present this year," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.  "Every economic indicator is pointing toward a strong holiday season.  Healthy November sales should provide momentum for an even stronger December as customers continue to seek out deals all the way to Christmas."

All retail categories witnessed a monthly increase in sales, including clothing and clothing accessories stores, electronics and appliance stores and nonstore retailers.

Additional findings from NRF's analysis found that:

•  Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers:
  • +1.4% month-to-month
  • +4.7% year-over-year
• Clothing and clothing accessories stores:
  • +1.2% month-to-month
  • +2.5% year-over-year
• Electronics and appliance stores:
  • +0.9% month-to-month
  • +6.1% year-over-year
• Furniture and home furnishing stores:
  • +0.5% month-to-month
  • -0.4% year-over-year
• General merchandise stores:
  • +0.5% month-to-month
  • +2.3% year-over-year
• Health and personal care stores:
  • +0.8% month-to-month
  • +4.6% year-over-year
• Online and other nonstore retailers:
  • +1.0% month-to-month
  • +6.3% year-over-year
• Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores:
  • +0.3% month-to-month
  • +1.3% year-over-year

Source: National Retail Federation

October Retail Sales Rebound After Shadows Of Doubt

November 14, 2014

October's retail sales report helps strengthen the National Retail Federation's holiday expectations for sales growth of 4.1 percent, and offers an optimistic look ahead for the busiest consumer spending time of the year.  According to NRF, October retail sales, excluding autos, gas and restaurants, grew a healthy 0.7 percent month-to-month seasonally adjusted over September, and 44 percent unadjusted year-over-year.  NRF also finds the three-month moving average for year-over-year growth is a steady 3.9 percent.

"Consumers regained the energy to spend again in October, removing some of the concerns surrounding the slower consumer spending results seen as of late," said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.  "Much of the spending power stems from lower gas prices, accelerated job growth, wages and salary gains, and the recent rise in stock prices.  We expect that the next two months will bring forth confident holiday shoppers who have the ability and desire to spend on gifts and more."

The Commerce Department found overall October retail sales increased 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted over September and 4.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

"Consumers have once again proven resilient to the pressures they are still facing from a slow-moving economic recovery, receiving a helping hand from lower costs at the pump and gains in the labor market," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "Moving forward, retailers will continue to find ways to entice holiday shoppers with great bargains while also focusing on other value-added promotions.  It is clear that Americans have the spending power, they just need to see continued improvement in the economy before they return to shopping habits from pre-recession."

All business lines, excluding electronics, showed gains on a month-to-month basis.

• Clothing and clothing accessories sales increased 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted over September and a healthy 1.3 percent unadjusted from 2013.
• Non-store sales increased a robust 1.9 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month, and 8.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
• Sporting goods sales increased a solid 1.2 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month, and 3.6 percent unadjusted over 2013.
• Sales at electronics companies decreased 1.6 percent seasonally adjusted from the previous month, possibly as a result of fall-off from the Apple iPhone roll-out in September, but increased 2.8 percent year-over-year.
• Furniture and home furnishing sales increased 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted from September, and 2 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

Source: National Retail Federation

Unwrapping The NRF Holiday Sales Forecast

October 29, 2014

The all-important holiday shopping season is upon us.  NRF's 2014 holiday forecast calls for a retail sales increase of 4.1 percent to a total of $616.9 billion.  "Holiday sales" are defined as those happening from November 1 through December 31.

Overall, we expect holiday spending to reflect recent economic momentum.  The economy is expanding and there doesn't appear to be any distinct shift away from the moderate pace of growth.  Growth is expected to continue to be slow and steady following the unusually high degree of volatility we saw in the first half of the year.

Economic growth for the balance of 2014 is forecast to be in the range of 3 percent over the same time last year.  Employment, income and consumer confidence are all improving.

Employment

Labor market indicators point to continued growth.  There have been gains of 200,000 or more jobs every month, except two this year.  Since the end of 2013, more than 2 million jobs have been created.  The unemployment rate - a key psychological indicator for the public - stood at 5.9 percent in September, down more than a full percentage point since the same time in 2013, and at its lowest level since July 2008.  Jobless claims have been below 300,000 for more than a month, which is rare in historical terms.

Income

With more jobs on the books, there is more aggregate income for more spending.  For August and the two prior months, personal income grew 4.1 percent compared with 2013.  As the season nears, we will be keeping a close eye on disposable income to gauge economic activity.

Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence has reached post-recession highs over the past year.  The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, for example, increased 1.8 points in October to 86.4, its best reading in more than seven years.

Nonetheless, confidence continues to be erratic and difficult to interpret.  With gas prices and unemployment low and smaller debt burdens, consumers should feel a bit better about their circumstances but they remain cautious.  Their mood may still be impacted by the lingering effects of the Great Recession.

Yet there is a lot of psychology at work, including volatile financial markets, European weakness, a slowdown in China, rising Middle East tensions and now Ebola.  All could still send a chill into consumer confidence, much like last year's ploar vortex.

Consumer Credit

Credit conditions are improving.  Consumers continue to choose and use credit very strategically.  Revolving credit, though uneven over the past year, has risen recently.  If employment and consumer confidence continue to improve as we expect, revolving credit may continue its healthy pace and help spur retail spending.

Consumers should benefit from easing price pressures.  Summer weather was quite mild this year and gasoline prices have recently dropped, leaving households to spend less on air conditioning and gas, freeing up more disposable income.

Additional Factors

As we observed last year, holiday retail sales can be severely impacted by any transitory factor from higher personal taxes and the debt ceiling debacle to a federal government shutdown and severe winter weather.

This year, it's too soon to predict the weather but at least Congress has kept the government open and there is no immediate talk of tax increases (at least not federally).

And The Forecast Is...

We look at employment, income, consumer confidence and consumer credit, incorporate a few wild cards such as gas prices, the whims of Congress and the outbreak of epidemics, then come up with an educated and informed figure.  It's part science, part art.

In the grand scheme of things, consumers appear to be in a much better position this year than last, with a bit more confidence and spending power.  These factors should translate into a solid holiday sales season for retailers and merchants alike.  Nevertheless, shoppers will remain cautious and stick to their budgets this year - just in case we're wrong.

Source: National Retail Federation 

September Retail Sales Decreased 0.1 Percent

October 15, 2014

The National Retail Federation calculates that September retail sales - excluding automobiles, gasoline stations and restaurants - decreased 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month yet increased 4.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year.  While seasonal factors were apparent, especially in August's downward revision, the drop-off in retail sales was worse than expected.

"Retail sales were surprisingly weak in September," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.  "Despite increasing consumer confidence, an uptick in employment, lower gas prices, and with inflation in check, consumers still slowed spending.  Reconciling consumer confdence with consumer spending continues to be a challenge."

"The consumer appears to have a brighter economic outlook heading into the holiday shopping season," Kleinhenz said.  "However the erratic stock market, geopolitical events and Ebola may contribute to continued volatility.  Despite the weak results this month, our outlook remains positive."

Most retail categories witnessed a decrease in sales in September, including clothing, online and nonstore retailers, but the release of new smartphones lifted electronics sales.

Additional findings from NRF's retail sales analysis include:

• Building material and garden equipment and supplies delaers:
  • -1.1% month-to-month
  • +7% year-over-year
• Clothing and clothing accessories stores:
  • -1.2% month-to-month
  • +3.3% year-over-year
• Electronics and appliance stores:
  • +3.4% month-to-month
  • +8% year-over-year
• Furniture and home furnishing stores:
  • -0.8% month-to-month
  • +2.5% year-over-year
• General merchandise stores:
  • +0.2% month-to-month
  • +2.1% year-over-year
• Health and personal care stores:
  • +0.3% month-to-month
  • +8.1% year-over-year
• Online and other nonstore retailers:
  • -1.1% month-to-month
  • +8.2% year-over-year
• Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores:
  • -0.1% month-to-month
  • +2.7% year-over-year

Source: Retailing Today

Deloitte Forecasts Boost In This Year's Retail Holiday Sales

September 24, 2014

According to Deloitte's annual retail holiday sales forecast, steadily improving economic fundamentals should moderately boost holiday sales in stores and online this year.

"Income, wage and job growth are positive indicators heading into the holiday season," said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's senior U.S. economist.  "Debt levels remain at historical lows, and stock market gains coupled with increasing home prices have a wealth effect on consumers, which may encourage increased spending compared with prior years.  Although consumers are watching tensions unfold in the Middle East and Ukraine, the improvement in their economic situation should more than offset the foreign conflicts' impact on consumer confidence and retail sales.  Despite recent events in energy-producing areas of the world, gas prices have held steady, which may also sustain consumers' spending power."

Deloitte's retail and distribution practice expects total holiday sales to climb to between $981 and $986 billion, representing a 4 to 4.5% increase in November through January holiday sales (excluding motor vehicles and gasoline) over last season.  This growth rate is a moderate improvement over last year's 2.8% gain.  Additionally, Deloitte forecasts a 13.5 to 14% increase in non-store sales in the online and mail order channels during the 2014 holiday season.

"While online sales continue to climb, digital customer interactions through both virtual and physical store channels present greater sales opportunities than online or mobile commerce alone," said Alison Paul, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and retail and distribution sector leader.  "Our research indicates that 84 percent of shoppers use digital tools before and during their trip to a store.  Additionally, those shoppers convert, or make a purchase, at a 40 percent higher rate than those who do not use such devices during their shopping journey."

Deloitte forecasts that digital interactions will influence 50%, or $345 billion, of retail sales this holiday season.  This figure reflects the extent to which consumers' use of desktop and laptop computers, tablets and smartphones influence brick-and-mortar store sales.

"Retailers should focus on the right functionality, rather than more functionality, when creating digital experiences this holiday season.  Rather than offer their full e-commerce site on a mobile device, for example, retailers may be more effective by helping consumers compare prices, scan through local assortments, and navigate the store.  Retailers that better understand how consumers make purchasing decisions, then deliver tools that support that process in a way that is consistent and complementary across online, mobile and store channels - may have the advantage this holiday season," Paul said.

Source: Retailing Today

August Retail Sales Increased 0.5 Percent

September 12, 2014

The National Retail Federation calculates that August retail sales - excluding automobiles, gasoline stations and restaurants - increased 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 2.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year.  When combined with revisions to July, August sales indicate a consistent improvement in consumer confidence and spending but run contrary to August's lackluster jobs report.  NRF fully anticipates upward revisions in employment and payroll numbers next month.

"The rise in cosumer confidence, labor markets and retail sales is encouraging," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.  "August sales figures signal that consumers are willing and ready to spend as the economy improves.  However, until the pace of income picks up, we should not expect a sustained surge in spending."

All retail categories improved over the previous month with the exception of general merchandise stores.  Even though year-over-year sales slowed from 4.2 to 2.6 percent, "by and large merchants had a strong fiish to the back-to-school season, especially those selling clothing and electronics," Kleinhenz said.

"My overall impression is that the economy is moving in the right direction but that other factors, including rising concerns over the uncertainty in the Middle East, may produce some drag.  We remain hopeful but cautious."

Additional findings from NRF's retail sales analysis include:

• Building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers:
  • +1.4% month-to-month
  • +3.3% year-over-year
• Clothing & clothing accessories stores:
  • +0.3% month-to-month
  • +1.0% year-over-year
• Electronics & appliance stores:
  • +0.7% month-to-month
  • +0.5% year-over-year
• Furniture & home furnishing stores:
  • +0.7 month-to-month
  • +0.7 year-over-year
• General merchandise stores:
  • -0.1% month-to-month
  • +1.8% year-over-year
• Health & personal care stores:
  • +0.6 % month-to-month
  • +6.4% year-over-year
• Nonstore (online) retailers:
  • +0.1% month-to-month
  • +4.2% year-over-year
• Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores:
  • +0.9% month-to-month
  • +4.1% year-over-year

Source: Retailing Today

As Clock Winds Down, Back-To-School Shoppers Still Wrapping Up Shopping Lists

August 20, 2014

Recognizing that a number of the best deals of the summer are still to come, some families have only scratched the surface of their back-to-school shopping lists as of mid-August.  According to NRF's latest Back-to-School/College Surveys, the average family with children in grades K-12 completed just half (49.9%) of their shopping by that time, down slightly from last year (52.1%).

"As the shopping season draws to a close, budget-conscious parents are likely hoping that end-of-summer sales and promotions will be just what they need to wrap up their school lists," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "Much of the delay this summer could also stem from families holding out for a sales tax holiday in their state, as well as from influential teenagers who want to first see what their friends are buying before they ask mom and dad to commit to their fall needs."

According to the survey, as of August 12, fewer families had stepped out to take advantage of retailers' special school savings opportunities; specifically, one-quarter (23.6%) had not started shopping yet, up from 20.9 percent last year.  However, there were some who were eager to get started as they looked to spread out their spending: 15.7% say they have completed their lists, which is about the same amount as last year.

College families on the other hand, got a good jump on retailers' sales and promotions this summer: 23.4 percent say they are completely finished with their lists, up from 20 percent last year.  Additionally, slightly fewer families this year say they haven't started shopping (26.2% vs. 28.8% last year).

Hoping to trim the costs where they can, some back-to-school shoppers made it a point to look for coupons and sales while scouring for new footwear, supplies, electronic items and apparel.  And, according to the most recent survey, 15.2 percent of back-to-school shoppers said 100 percent of their purchases were influenced by coupons, sales and promotions, the highest percent since 2011; 14.8 percent of college students and their families say 76-99 percent of their shopping was influenced by coupons, also the highest for that range in the survey's history.

In July, NRF found eight in 10 (81.1%) families with children in grades K-12 said the state of the economy would impact their school spending in some way; seven out of 10 (77.2%) college students and their families agreed.

In the survey, when asked what payment method back-to-school families used most often to purchas school necessities, 44.9 percent say they have or will use their debit cards more than cash (24.9%) and credit cards (27.9%).  College students and their families have or will use debit cards (43.4%), followed by credit cards (33.7%) and cash (18.9%).

To wrap up their lists, most back-to-school shoppers will shop at discount (54%), department (47.7%) and clothing stores (35%), and online (24.8%).  One-third (33.7%) will visit an office supply store and 10 percent will shop local and support small business.

Back-to-college shoppers will finish their shopping at discount (47.4%), department (40.3%) and clothing stores (26.8%).  The most in the survey's history - 37.4 percent will wrap up their lists online.

School Requirements for Supplies, Electronic Purchases

To gauge the level of influence a school may have on both back-to-school and college shoppers' intentions to buy supplies and/or electronics, NRF asked parents this year about specific course/school requirements.

According to the survey, nearly one in five parents (18.2%) say that 100 percent of their back-to-college electronics purchases were influenced by course/school requirements.

For back-to-school families, whose lists often include supplies needed for the classroom, 21 percent of parents say that 100 percent of the supplies they buy are influenced by classroom and school requirements.  When it comes to electronics, 16.4 percent said that every electronic item they buy is influenced by classroom lists and school requirements.

"As schools look to parents more and more to help fund classroom needs, parents are looking for as many ways as they can to cut costs, and that could very well be why we're seeing more people seek out coupons and sales this summer.  Low prices at the end of the season will definitely drive more college and school families to shop last minute, especially for those with specific items they need in order to start the school year."

Source: National Retail Federation

July 2014 Retail Sales

August 13, 2014

Facing slight headwinds from economic pressures and mounting concerns over global unrest, consumers in July cut back on discretionary spending, reflecting a trend that shows many are juggling their spending between goods and services.

NRF retail sales in July, which exclude autos, restaurants and gas, were largely unchanged over June, increasing 0.1 percent; year-over-year unadjusted sales increased 4 percent.  The Commerce Department said on Wednesday, July retail sales, which had increased 0.2 percent in June, were flat over the previous month and up 3.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year.  Much of the unexpected weakness came from a lack of spending in key areas such as furniture, home furnishings and electronics stores.

June and July's combined year-over-year growth averages approximately 4 percent, which NRF's Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz believes is still on track to meet expectations of annual sales growth of at least 3.9 percent for the remainder of 2014.

"Overall, I still believe the economy and the consumer are headed in the right direction as consumer fundamentals such as positive income, employment and confidence remain relatively sturdy," said Kleinhenz.  "Retailers right now are witnessing a choppy pattern of spending, choosing between large ticket items and other discretionary purchases, with services they may need.  Families today are still displaying behavior tht shows they continue to struggle with purchase decisions, based on needs versus wants.  It is also evident some consumers are cautious about leveraging up credit to support purchases."

Sales in July were up against a strong showing in July 2013, making comparisons slightly more difficult.  Specifically, electronics stores sales decreased 0.1 percent over June and increased 1.3 percent year-over-year; sales at apparel and accessory stores increased a solid 0.4 percent over June and 2.7 percent year-over-year.  Health and personal care stores' sales increased 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted over last month and a healthy 7.2 percent year-over-year.

Source: Retailing Today

Top 2014 Back-To-School And College Trends

Source: National Retail Federation

Fastest Growing Retailers In The U.S.

August 1, 2014

At first glance the list of the nation's fastest growing retailers appears to be more of a hodgepodge of industry sectors than evidence of a single, defined trend.  From grocery conglomerates and discount specialty stores to home furnishing and athletic wear companies, the top players on STORES' Hot 100 Retailers List run the gamut.  The list, published annually in the August issue of STORES Magazine, consists of retail companies that reported the greatest increase in domestic sales between 2012 and 2013.  All public and private companies with more than $300 million in sales were eligible for the list.

"The eclectic quality of the list is an upbeat indicator for retail," said STORES Media Editor Susan Reda.  "While Albertson's grew mainly by acquisition, Wayfair's ascent is 12 years in the making as this online specialist benefits from renewed consumer interest in sprucing up their homes.

"It's becoming a familiar story in our industry - growth stems from new products, innovative thinking and one-of-a-kind customer experiences," Reda said.

Idaho-based grocery Albertsons claims the top spot on the 2014 list, with sales growth of 432.7 percent between 2012 and 2013.  Albertson's growth - to 2013 sales of $19.5 billion - has primarily come from mergers and acquisitions.

Home furnishings companies Wayfair and Conn's made their marks this year, landing at No. 2 and No. 4, respectively.  Boston-based Wayfair saw its sales increase 52.5 percent between 2012 and 2013, while Texas-based Conn's sales grew 39.2 percent during that time frame.  A revitalized housing market has helped the home furnishings sector in recent years as consumers are once again investing in their homes.

Specialty retail company Ascena Retail Group secured the No. 3 spot this year.  Suffem, New York-based Ascena operates more than 3,800 stores throughout the United States and Canada, including the Justice and Dress Barn brands, and recently reported annualized revenues of more than $4.5 billion.  Sales for Ascena Retail Group grew 49.1 percent between 2012 and 2013.

Michael Kors Holdings has had tremendous staying power the past few years in terms of continued company growth, making the top 10 each of the past three years, including No. 6 this year.  The New York-based company's U.S. sales increased 36 percent between 2012 and 2013.

No. 7 Under Armour continues to take the athletic world by storm, landing in the top 10 for the first time on sales growth of 34.8 percent.  The Baltimore-based company reported U.S. sales of $672 million in 2013.

Michigan-based grocer SpartanNash (5), Five Below (9) and Amazon.com (10) also placed in the top 10.

"Hot retailers do things better than their competitors, and they've clearly carved out a proposition for the consumer," said Kantar Retail Chief Knowledge Officer Bryan Gildenberg.  "Part of that success is being at the right place at the right time with the right products, and the other part of it is being smart enough to know the differences in those factors between themselves and their competitors; in a slow growth market like 2013, share gains equal growth."

Hot 100 List names nine companies who have "sustained sizzle"

Talk about staying power: Nine retailers are being recognized for having made the Hot 100 each year since its inception in 2006.  The sustained sizzlers, listed in order of total sales growth (and with 2014 rank):

• Amazon.com - 852% (10)
• Ascena Retail Group - 366% (3)
• O'Reilly Automotive - 225% (53)
• Urban Outfitters - 196% (39)
• J. Crew - 158% (38)
• Tractor Supply Co. - 150% (34)
• Dick's Sporting Goods - 137% (69)
• Dollar Tree - 126% (87)
• Ross Stores - 97% (86)

The Hot 100 Retailers list is the definitive annual ranking of the fastest growing retail chains in the United States.  Rankings are determined by increases in year-over-year domestic sales between 2012 and 2013.

Source: National Retail Federation

Back-To-School/College Spending Shows Slight Year-Over-Year Improvement

July 17, 2014

Families this summer will spend slightly more on back-to-school items than they did in 2013.  According to NRF's 2014 Back-to-School Survey, the average family with children in grades K-12 will spend $669.28 on apparel, shoes, supplies and electronics, up 5% from $634.78 in 2013.

NRF broke out spending by grade, and according to the survey, families with high school students will spend the most.  The survey found the average family shopping for high school students will spend $682.99, while spending on middle school/junior high comes in a close second at $682.13.  Parents with elementary school-age children will spend an average of $580.94.

Total spending on back to school will drop slightly to $26.5 billion as the survey found there are slightly fewer students in households this summer.

Overall, every category will see an increase in spending, including healthy increases in average spend on supplies and electronics.  According to the survey, back-to-school shoppers will spend an average $212.35 on electronic items, up 7% from $199.05 in 2013, with total spend expected to reach $8.4 billion.  High school students and their families specifically will spend an average $229.88 on electronic items.

Perhaps due to school districts' growing requests for classroom supply contributions, spending on school supplies will increase 12% to an average of $101.18, compared to $90.49 in 2013.  In addition, shoppers will spend an average of $231.30 on clothes, up from $230.85, and $124.46 on shoes, up from $114.39 in 2013.

The survey found 53.8% of back-to-school shoppers will shop a clothing store, up from 51.5% last year and a survey high; 27.5% will shop at electronics stores, up from 25.9% last year and another survey high.  Six-in-10 (64.4%) will visit discount stores, 59.1% will shop at their favorite department store, 42% will shop at office supply stores, 38.2% will shop online, and 20.5% will shop at drug stores.

The survey also found 36.7% of smartphone owners shopping for school items will research products using their mobile device, up from 34.7% last year and the highest since NRF started asking in 2011; one-in-five (21.8%) will make a purchase via their smartphone, up from 18.2% last year and another survey high.  And while many will simply shop online directly through their smartphone, one-quarter (25.1%) will use their device to find information about a physical store.

School shoppers that own tablets will also use their device more to shop this summer; 31.4% will purchase school items via their tablet, up from 29.9% last year, and 45% will research products, up from 41.8% last year.

In addition, NRF's 2014 Back-to-College Survey found the average college student and their family will spend $916.48 on dorm furniture, school supplies, electronics and more, up 10% from $836.83 in 2013.  Total college spending is expected to reach $48.4 billion.  Combined college and school spending is expected to reach $74.9 billion.

When it comes to mobile usage, nearly six-in-10 (57.8%) will use their smartphone in some fashion as they shop for college items.  Of those with smartphones, the survey found one-third (33.8%) will research products, the highest since NRF added mobile shopping questions to its survey in 2011.  Additionally, one-in-five (22.4%) will purchase items, up from 19.1% last year and another survey high, and 29.8% will look up retailer information, up from 20.9% in 2013.  More than half (54.5%) of tablet owners will use their tablet to shop for college items.  Specifically, 37.4% will research products, and 27% will use their tablet to purchase items.

Source: Retailing Today 

NRF: Electronics, School Supplies Drive Increased Back-To-School/College Spending This Year

July 17, 2014

Driven by increased demand for electronic items and parent's need to restock their children's school supplies from last year, families this summer will spend slightly more on back-to-school items than last year.  According to NRF's 2014 Back-to-School Survey, the average family with children in grades K-12 will spend $669.28 on apparel, shoes, supplies and electronics, up 5 percent from $634.78 last year.  Total spending on back to school will drop slightly to $26.5 billion as the survey found there are slightly fewer students in households this summer.

Combined spending for back to school and college is expected to reach $74.9 billion.

"Slow improvements in the economy may have contributed to the growth in confidence among back-to-school shoppers, and while we are encouraged by the overall tone of the results and expect to see continued improvement in consumer spending through the year, we know Americans are still grappling with their purchase decisions every day," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "Throughout the history of this survey, spending has fluctuated based on family needs each year, and this summer, we expect parents to continue to use caution, but also make smart decisions for their family budget that is a good balance between what their children 'want' and what they actually need."

NRF this year broke out spending by grade, and according to the survey, families with high school students will spend the most.  The survey found the average family shopping for high school students will spend $682.99, while spending on middle school/junior high comes in a close second at $682.13.  Parents with elementary school-age children will spend an average of $580.94.

Source: National Retail Federation 

U.S. Retail Sales In May Climb 5%

June 6, 2014

U.S. retailers reported 5% year-over-year growth in general merchandise, apparel, furniture and other (GAFO) retail sales.  Shoppers made fewer trips to the store than expected, but were very engaged and showed a lot of intent to buy.

Retailers also reported 7% growth year-over-year in clothing and apparel sales and 2% growth year-over-year in general merchandise sales.  Shopper traffic declined 11% compared to the same month last year, as travel plans appeared to cannibalize leisure time.

Storefront conversion was up slightly as this May remained more promotional the same month in the proir year, especially leading up to Mother's Day.  Average duration increased 6% from the previous year due to a rebounding interest in more exploratory shopping, following the muted winter months.  The increase in visit duration was the most significant driver of positive sales performance in May.

Source: Retailing Today

Dad's Get Even Less Love This Year

June 3, 2014

Father's Day is already the smallest of gift-giving holidays and this year Americans are expected to spend even less, according to the National Retail Federation's (NRF) 2014 Father's Day Spending Survey.

The survey found that the average person will spend $113.80 on neckties, tools, electronics and other special gifts for dad, slightly down from $119.84 last year.  Total spending for the holiday is expected to reach $12.5 billion.

"Knowing both cost and sentiment are important to their shoppers, retailers this Father's Day will make sure to offer promotions on a variety of gift options, including home improvement items, tools and even apparel," said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay.  "As more people look for 'experience gifts' with tickets to baseball games or a day on the golf course, retailers will also make sure to promote their gift cards for families hoping to create the perfect gift package."

While most people (64.1%) will simply say thank you to dad with a greeting card, four in 10 (41.6%) will treat dad to new apparel items such as neckties and sweaters, spending a total of $1.8 billion, while another 42.6% will celebrate with special outings such as dinner or a ticket to a sporting event, spending a total of $2.5 billion.  The survey also found that those celebrating Father's Day will spend $1.6 billion on electronic gifts like smartphones and tablets, and $1.8 billion on gift cards, letting dad pick his own special gift.

Consumers will also spend on tools or appliances ($663 million), sporting goods or leisure items ($662 million), home improvement items ($645 million), personal care items ($641 million), books or CDs ($555 million) and automotive accessories ($520 million).

Dad's loved ones will look for gifts at a variety of locations, including discount stores (28.1%), online (28.4%) and specialty stores (24.2%); 16.6% say they plan to support their communities and shop at a local or small business to find gift items for dad.  Most shoppers, however, will head to dad's favorite department store (35.8%).

"As we saw with Valentine's Day and Mother's Day this year, consumers are keeping to a strict budget," said Prosper Insights Director Pam Goodfellow.  "Whether they spend $10 or $100, millions of Americans will find creative, affordable ways to show dad how much they care."

On-the-go shoppers will use their smartphones and tablets to research and purchase gifts for dad this year.  Nearly one-quarter of smartphone owners (23.4%) will research products and compare prices on gifts using their smartphone, and three in 10 tablet owners (30.6%) will do the same.  Nearly one in five (18.2%) will purchase products with their tablet for Father's Day.

More than half of survey respondents plan to shop for their father or stepfather (52.3%) and 27.6% will look for ways to show their appreciation for their husband.

Source: Retailing Today, National Retail Federation 

Americans To Spend More Than $4.7 Billion On Graduation Gifts

May 19, 2014

Graduation season is upon us and young adults across the country are preparing for the next step in their life, be it a new job or a new school.  These same graduates are very likely already thinking of what to do with the graduation gifts heading their way.

While it's certainly not the biggest consumer spending season, the timeframe around graduation is still very big business for retailers large and small, and with more Millennials taking the stage these days, it should continue to grow.  According to NRF's Graduation Spending Survey, the average person buying graduation gifts will spend $97.79, and will shop for approximately two graduates.  Total spending on gift cards, electronic items, apparel and other items will total $4.7 billion, the highest amount in the survey's nine year history.

 

Information
Only those who plan to purchase a gift for one or more graduates answered this question.

Graduation for many is a rite of passage.  High school graduates will look to mom and dad to stock their car full of new gadgets, apparel items and gift cards as they head off to college.  College graduates are looking forward to their first big job, and with it their first "real world" paycheck.

To help smooth the transition, graduates' loved ones this year will say "Congratulations" with a whole bunch of cash.  The survey found most (56.8%) will give cash to the graduates they know.  Nearly 40 percent will give a card and 12 percent will splurge on new apparel items for the lucky grads.  Three in 10 will let the celebrant choose and will buy gift cards, and 8 percent will buy an electronic item.

The journey is just beginning for today's Millennial.  But friends and family will recognize their accomplishments thus far with gifts - and most importantly - cash.

Source: National Retail Federation

Outlook Remains Positive Despite Flat April Sales

May 13, 2014

Retail sales rose ever so slightly in April, putting a damper on hopes of a sharp uptick in economic growth in the second quarter.  According to the U.S. Commerce Department, retail sales, which include categories such as automobiles, gasoline stations and restaurants, rose 0.1% in April, following a revised 1.5% increase in March that ranked as the biggest since March 2010.

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), April sales, which exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants, were unchanged seasonally-adjusted month-to-month, yet increased 4.7% unadjusted year-over-year.

"Even though retail sales were weaker than anticipated, the fundamentals of the economy, including improving job growth and income gains, remain positive," said chief economist Jack Kleinhenz.  "While the shift in Easter played into the seasonal figures, NRF remains optimistic that retail sales will keep their positive trajectory, albeit in fits-and-starts, in the second quarter."

Additional findings from NRF's retail sales analysis include:

• Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers stores' sales increased 0.4% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and 2.7% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Clothing and clothing accessories stores' sales increased 1.2% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and 5.2% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Electronics and appliance stores' sales decreased 2.3% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and 1.8% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Furniture and home furnishing stores' sales decreased 0.6% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month yet increased 3.6% unadjusted year-over-year.
• General merchandise stores' sales increased 0.2% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and 5.3% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Health and personal care stores' sales increased 0.6% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and 6.6% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Nonstore retailers' sales decreased 0.9% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month yet increased 5.8% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores' sales increased 0.7% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month yet decreased 0.6% unadjusted year-over-year.

"The shift in Easter to April did not provide enough bounce to retailers as retail sales struggled to keep their strong spring pace," NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said.  "With consumer spending accounting for roughly 70% of total economic activity, NRF remains hopeful that the uninspiring April retail sales figures are just a temporary seasonal fluctuation."

Source: Retailing Today

Retail Sales Post Weaker-Than-Expected April Increase

May 13, 2014

U.S. retail sales barely rose in April and a gauge of consumer spending slipped, which could temper hopes of a sharp acceleration in economic growth in the second quarter.

The Commerce Department said on Tuesday retail sales edged up 0.1 percent last month, held back by declines in receipts at furniture, electronic and appliance stores, restaurants and bars and online retailers.

Retail sales, which account for a third of consumer spending, rose by a revised 1.5 percent in March.  That was the largest increase since March 2010.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales advancing 0.4 percent last month after a previously reported 1.2 percent surge in March.

Data such as employment, as well as manufacturing and services industries surveys had suggested the economy regained strength early in the second quarter after being weighed down by bad weather and a slow pace of restocking by businesses in the first three months of the year.

But the retail sales report cast a shadow on that upbeat outlook.  So-called core sales, which strip out automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, and correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, fell 0.1 percent in April.

That followed a revised 1.3 percent advance in March.

Core retail sales had previously been reported to have risen 0.8 percent in March.

Last month, retail sales were restrained by a 2.3 percent drop in receipts at electronics and appliance stores.  Sales at furniture stores fell 0.6 percent, while receipts at food services and drinking places dropped 0.9 percent.

Sales at non-store retailers, which include online sales, fell 0.9 percent.

However, receipts at building materials and garden equipment stores rose 0.4 percent.  Sales at auto dealerships increased 0.6 percent.  There were also increases in sales at gasoline stations, reflecting higher pump prices.

Excluding gasoline and autos, retail sales fell 0.1 percent.

Receipts at clothing stores rose 1.2 percent.  There were also gains in receipts at sporting goods shops.

Source: Fox Business

The Long And Short Of America's Consumer Holidays

May 1, 2014

For 11 years now, the National Retail Federation has gauged consumers' spending intentions on America's favorite holidays like Valentine's Day, Mother's Day, Halloween and of course, Christmas.

During that time, Halloween has grown to become one of the most popular holidays of the year, average spending on back-to-school items has increased 31 percent since 2004 , and Thanksgiving Day has officially become a bonafide shopping day for millions of bargain-hungry Americans.  So, how do holidays "rank" when it comes to consumer spending?  Here's how each holiday ranks as of the release of the latest Mother's Day survey:

Winter holidays: As the largest gift-giving holiday of them all, the winter holidays account for nearly 20 percent of total annual retail sales for retailers.  In 2013, holiday celebrants spent an average of $730 on gifts, food, decorations and more.  After all was said and done, NRF found that holiday sales increased 3.8 percent to $602 billon.  More than 90 percent of Americans celebrated Christmas, Kwanza or Hanukah last winter, the most celebrated season of the year.

Back to school/College: Spending on pencils, backpacks, denim, college dorm furniture and collegiate wear, tablets, smartphones and notebooks costs mom and dad hundreds of dollars on average and a total of $72.5 billion last year.  But savvy parents know bargains are not hard to find.  Almost every sector of retail plays a role: drug stores, thrift stores, electronics stores, department stores, discount stores and even grocery stores for penny-pinching college students and their parents.

Mother's Day: Consumers say they will spend an average of $163 this year - $19.9 billion total - with the majority of their budget going to special outings, new apparel items and jewelry.  As to why Mother's Day is so much bigger than Father's Day: the types of gifts people typically buy mom tend to cost a little more, and dad even admits that he doesn't like all the fuss anyway.

Halloween: In 2013, two-thirds of Americans said they would partake in Halloween activities, spending $75 on average to celebrate, for a total of $6.9 billion.  The holiday has become more of an adult event than ever before, helping boost spending on costumes, candy, decorations and party materials more than 55 percent since 2005.  With the growth in popularity, other sectors have jumped into the mix.  Home improvement stores take advantage of their vast space to sell life-sized yard decorations, and drug and grocery stores are also now devoting select aisles to decorations, candy and costumes.

Source: National Retail Federation

Families Look To Shower Mom This Mother's Day

April 29, 2014

After splurging on tablets and smartphones, beauty supplies, apparel and jewelry for mom last year, consumers this year will celebrate Mother's Day keeping practicality in mind.  According to NRF's Mother's Day Spending Survey, Americans will spend an average of $162.94 on mom this year, down from a survey high of $168.94 last year.  Total spending is expected to reach $19.9 billion.

"As one of the most universally celebrated holidays, retailers will take this opportunity to attract Mother's Day shoppers with promotions on ladies apparel items, health and beauty products, jewelry and even restaurant options," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.  "Now fully into spring, retailers are hoping consumer sentiment and spending intentions continue to grow as we round out one of the busiest retail seasons of the year and prepare for summer."

Moms work hard and they are entitled to a show of appreciation on their special day.  Most consumers will acknowledge that appreciation with a greeting card (81.3%), though it appears her loved ones will also look for special gifts.  Two-thirds (66.6%) of those celebrating will buy mom her favorite flowers, spending a total of $2.3 billion, and 33.5 percent will look for spring sweaters and blouses, spending a total of $1.7 billiion on apparel and accessory items.  Mom's loved ones will also buy books and CDs ($480 million), housewares or gardening tools ($812 million), personal experience gifts like a day at the spa ($1.5 billion), jewelry ($3.6 billion), and special outings like brunch or dinner ($3.8 billion).

Having spent the last few years treating mom to electronic gifts like tablets, smartphones, cameras and more, Americans this year may have less of a reason to invest in those items: 13.1 percent say they will buy mom a consumer electronic item and will spend a total of $1.7 billion, down from $2.3 billion last year.

"Americans haven't forgotten about the state of the economy and are treating their finances and gift-giving budgets in a way that keeps practicality top of mind," said Prosper's Consumer Insights Director Pam Goodfellow.  "But like we saw with Valentine's Day and Easter, people this year will look for special ways to treat mom to something nice without breaking the bank, knowing it's the thought that counts."

Most shoppers will head to specialty stores to find gifts (33.5%), but others will shop at department stores (32.4%), discount stores (24%), and online (29%).

The survey found 18-24 year olds are the most likely to shop at department stores among all other age groups; more than half (51.6%) will visit a department store in search of their perfect gift for mom.  But it's 25-34 year olds who will spend the most on mom, spending an average of $216.53.

Nearly two-thirds (63.9%) of those surveyed say they will shop for their mother or stepmother, while 22.5 percent will shop for their wife, 9.2 percent will shop for their daughter and 6.6 percent will shop for their grandmother.

Source: National Retail Federation

Rite Aid's Sales Rise In April

May 1, 2014

Rite Aid posted $2 billion for the four weeks ended April 26, representing a lift of 4.9%.  Same-store sales increased 5% over the prior-year period.

April front-end same-store sales increased 4.7%, with 4.6% of the increase attributable to a shift in the timing of Easter, which fell on April 20 this year, compared with March 31 last year.  Pharmacy same-store sales, which included an approximate 138 basis points negative impact from new generic introductions, increased 5.2%.  Prescription count at comparable stores increased 2.3% over the prior-year period.

Prescription sales accounted for 67.9% of drug store sales, and third-party prescription sales represented 97.4% of pharmacy sales.

Same-store sales for the eight-week period ended April 26, 2014 increased 2.9% over the prior-year period.  Front-end same-store sales decreased 0.2% while pharmacy same-store sales increased 4.3%.  Prescription count at comparable stores increased 1.7% over the prior-year period.

Total drug store sales for the eight weeks ended April 26, 2014 increased 2.6% with sales of $3.9 billion.  Prescription sales represented 68.7% of total drugstore sales, and third party prescription sales represented 97.4% of pharmacy sales.

Source: Retailing Today