Study Shows Department Stores Should Close Locations to Restore Productivity

According to new research by Green Street Advisors, department stores need to close hundreds of locations to recapture the level of productivity they had a decade ago in 2006. The real-estate research firm estimates that approximately a fifth of all anchor space in U.S. malls, or roughly 800 stores, could be a part of the closures.

As retail business has shifted to discounters or online merchants like Amazon.com in recent years, many large retailers have closed locations. Sears recently said it would close 78 stores including 68 Kmarts this summer as part of a plan that was announced in February. But according to Green Street, Sear would need to close 300 or 43% of its stores to regain the sales per square foot that it had in 2006.

To return to 2006 productivity levels, Green Street estimates that JC Penney would need to close 320 stores (31%), Nordstrom Inc. would need to close 30 stores (25%) and Macy’s, which closed 40 stores last year, would need eliminate an additional 70 stores (9%). 

Sales at U.S. department stores averaged $165 per square foot in 2015 which represents a 24% drop since 2006. But stores only reduced their physical footprint by a total of 7% over the same time period.

“Department stores used to be a great catchall for different brands, but today many of the brands have stores of their own, and shoppers can also find them online,” said DJ Busch, a senior Green Street analyst.

The stores have declined to comment on the Green Street Report, but have indicated that closing a large number of stores isn’t the right strategy to improve productivity in today’s dynamic retail market.

“There’s a misperception out there that when we close a store, that business transfers online,” Ed Record, Penney’s chief financial officer, told analysts in November. “When we close a store, particularly in a small market, we see our dot-com business go down.”

Macy’s has attempted to lure shoppers into their stores by adding Bluemercury beauty shops and Backstage discount stores to it’s department stores, and a spokesman for Nordstrom said that all of its stores are profitable, and closing stores “is not our normal practice.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal

BUILDING SUPPLIERS SEE BEST QUARTER IN ALMOST A DECADE

Amid reports from the Commerce Department that housing starts in March were up 14.2% from last year, paint, drywall and other building suppliers are seeing an uptick in sales. Sherwin Williams reported on their investor call forecast-beating first quarter profits. They reported an 11% increase in sales revenue from its stores and a 44% improvement in profit.

USG Corp., manufacturers of drywall and ceiling tiles, reported the “best quarter we’ve had in almost a decade”. Sales increased 7% to $970 million.

Great weather is attributed to work on homes starting earlier in the year than usual. Illinois Tool Works Inc., supplier of screws, fasteners, nail guns and other items improved its operating margin to 21% from 17% last year. Says CEO Scott Santi, “We certainly exited the quarter in pretty good shape. We’re not seeing anything slow down.”

Building materials, garden equipment and supply dealers show estimated sales increases of 11.9% over Q1 2015. Analysts are predicting that Home Depot and Lowe’s may post stronger than expected sales for their quarters ending April 2016.

Source: Wall St Journal, Seeking Alpha

Three Factors Contributing to Continued Weak Retail Traffic

The second week of April continued to see sluggish retail traffic. According to reports by Citi Research analyst Kate McShane and Cowen and Co. analyst John Kernan, total U.S. retail visits for the week ended April 16 declined 6.58 percent year over year. Total U.S. retail same-store traffic slid 8.75 percent year-over-year for the week while year-to-date retail visits are down 3.4 percent. In a report released this week, Cowen and Co. outline several factors contributing to the decline.

E-commerce and Mobile Growth

According to the Cowen report, holiday e-commerce sales increased about 14%, while mobile currently captures 61% of consumers’ time spent shopping online. The increased competition from e-commerce and the pressure to maintain brick-and-mortar locations contributed to several large retailers filing for bankruptcy in recent months.

Lack of Trends 

Retailers continue to be plagued by what Cowen and Co. termed “product malaise”. Either brands and retailers are not creating /offering enough fresh and exciting product to compel consumers to spend, or consumers simply aren’t as interested in purchasing “stuff” these days.

Election Year Politics

Retailers have notoriously blamed sluggish traffic and sales during an election year on the hype and uncertainty surrounding a presidential election. The campaigns and debates may draw attention away from retail shopping, plus high-end shoppers may scale down their spending before an election if they fear an increase in taxes when the next president takes office.

One tactic vendors and retailers can use to weather the storm is remaining focused on inventory and consumer buying trends using POS data and analytics. Research continues to show that when people find a product that they really like, they will buy it. With comprehensive data and reports readily available, vendors can make informed decisions that help ensure their customers can find and buy their product.

Source: footwearnews.com

Amazon Offers a New Prime Option: Monthly Membership

Since it launched in 2005, Amazon has offered its annual Prime membership plan for $99. That breaks down to $8.25 a month. This week the company launched two new subscription plans: a monthly Prime membership plan for $10.99 a month and a monthly Prime Video membership plan for $8.99. Neither requires an annual commitment.

The monthly Prime membership will include all of the same benefits you receive with an annual Prime plan, including free two-day shipping. The Prime Video membership includes all of Prime’s video content, but does not include the free shipping. Industry observers are calling the new video membership a direct challenge to Netflix and Hulu. With the success of critical hits like Transparent and Mozart in the Jungle, Amazon has worked to expand its Prime Video service over the past year and plans to release several more original series in 2016.

Though Amazon does not typically release specific Prime data, it has been estimated that there are at least 46 million U.S. members and that Prime members spend up to twice as much as non-Prime members in the course of a year. The e-tail giant has recently been making a number of competitive maneuvers designed to expand the reach of Prime. These include bundling Prime as a monthly service for Sprint mobile subscribers and making its Prime Now same-day delivery option more accessible by adding it in 11 new markets. And while the two new plans will cost consumers more than the original annual plan, they offer a way to ease into a Prime membership without a major commitment.

Source: Chain Store Age and Wired.com

RETAIL SALES FALL UNEXPECTEDLY IN MARCH

Although economists projected a 0.1% gain in retail spending in March, sales fell 0.3%. Of the 13 retail segments tracked, 9 of the 13 saw spending growth, but 3 categories dropped significantly enough to create the loss: autos, clothing and dining out. Sales decreased 0.9% at clothing chains, the biggest loss since October.

The labor market is robust, so the trend of less spending comes as a surprise. The value of sales is also being hurt by low prices, as retailers are offering discounts to clear unwanted merchandise in their warehouses. Sales at online retailers dropped 0.1%.

Of the 9 categories that saw increased spending, sporting goods and hobby stores rose 0.2% and electronics and appliance outlets rose 0.1%. Building materials and garden equipment stores increased the most, up 1.4%.

Source: Bloomberg, CNBC

2015 ONLINE RETAIL SALES GREW IN SURPRISING CATEGORY

For the first time in a decade, online sales spending on apparel and accessories surpassed computer hardware sales in 2015. For the year, clothing generated $51.5 billion in online sales, over the $51.1 billion spent on personal computers and tablets, which held the highest sales until now. In Q4 2015, apparel and accessories sold $17.2 billion.

Retailers’ efforts to make it easier to shop online and return with less risk is a big factor. Shoppers are getting more comfortable with the fact that if a pair of pants does not fit right or a blouse is a different color than they expected, it can be returned with little hassle and little to no cost. Online shopping of apparel and accessories also grew due to the fact that, unlike a laptop or tablet purchase, these products do not require a lot of research by the consumer before they buy, and are easy to buy with an image on a small mobile screen.  E-retail sales of the apparel and accessories industry is expected to continue to grow, with total online sales estimated to grow up to $434 billion by 2017. 

Source: Internet Retailer

UPSCALE COSMETICS SALES ARE BEAUTIFUL

The upscale beauty business continues to shine. In 2015, prestige beauty - makeup, fragrances and skin care products that are not found typically at drug stores, saw a 7% increase in sales. Sephora and Ulta each posted phenomenal sales results. Estee Lauder raised its sales forecast as demand for their product line are growing. The makeup subcategory was the strongest, with a 13% increase last year.

In a “selfie-ready age” and YouTube and Pinterest an easy way to get product tutorials, makeup trends are growing the sales. Thicker eyebrows are trendy, so products such as brow-enhancing serum and eyebrow mousse are becoming more popular. In our health-conscious society, products with natural or clinical orientation, which are pricier, comprise the largest share of prestige skincare sales.

JC Penney plans to accelerate its Sephora Inside JC Penney locations, and Kohl’s has redesigned its beauty area on 900 of its stores. Macy’s acquired $210 million Bluemercury, and plans to grow to 150 locations in the next 2 years. Target acquired Sonia Kashuk brand, and L’Oreal is opening brick-and-mortar locations of its NYX Cosmetics concept.

Accelerated Analytics works with a large percentage of beauty brands, such as L’Oreal, Anastasia Beverly Hills, Estee Lauder, Parlux Fragrances and LVMH. Click here to see our full list of beauty vendors, who utilize Accelerated Analytics’ POS reporting tools to track sales and inventory levels at their retailers, such as Dillard’s, Macy’s, Sephora and Ulta.

Source: Washington Post

Retailers Unprepared for Future Labor Challenges According to Survey

JDA Software Group recently conducted a new survey of more than 250 store managers and found that retailers are unprepared for the “perfect labor storm” that’s brewing. It’s fueled by new and shifting labor regulations and ever-expanding customer needs.

The Voice of the Store Associate Survey found that over half of respondents feel only somewhat prepared to staff appropriately to meet customer demands. They rely primarily on outdated forms of scheduling, like pen and paper, whiteboard or an Excel spreadsheet, and have yet to develop and deploy a modern workforce management (WFM) solution into their planning process.

Retail store managers face staffing challenges due to the increased demands that come with services such as Buy Online Return In Store and Buy Online Pick Up In Store. And, the lack of automated systems to predict staffing needs is resulting in increased labor costs. In addition, state and federal agencies are proposing and passing new labor laws that will have a direct effect of how retailers manage and pay employees.

“The research raises serious questions as to how much attention retailers give to managing their staff efficiently, predicting customer demand needs and complying with new or pending labor regulations,” said Tyler Owen, senior director, global solutions strategy, store operations, JDA Software.

Source: Chain Store Age

H&M’s Expansion Plan Includes 425 New Stores

Swedish retailer H&M recently revealed its aggressive plans for both physical and digital growth in 2016. The company will open its 4000^th location when they add 425 stores this year. H&M also plans to expand its e-commerce efforts to Japan and 10 other markets.

“Our strong expansion continues, we are gaining market share and we are confident that we can grow at a fast pace both through stores and online, in existing as well as in new markets, for many years to come,” said H&M CEO Karl-Johan Persson. “The spring will bring many store openings, for example the opening of flagship stores in South Africa, Switzerland, Hungary and India. Since 2010 we have doubled the number of stores in the group, and this April we will pass another milestone when store number 4,000 opens.”

H&M has chosen Mall of India in New Delhi as the location of it’s 4000^th store.

The addition of 11 new e-commerce markets will give H&M omnichannel capabilities in 34 markets by the end of the year. Their new markets include Japan, Ireland, Croatia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Greece, Canada and South Korea.

Source: Chain Store Age

First Revenue Decline a Wake-Up Call for Retail Giant Walmart

According to its annual financial filing released on Wednesday, for the first time since the company went public 45 years ago, Walmart’s revenues declined from the year before.

With over 11,500 store in 28 countries worldwide, the retail giant brings in half a trillion dollars in sales each year. Is it possible that they’ve hit their growth limit? In February, Walmart lowered its annual net sales growth forecast to “relatively flat” from earlier guidance that called for an increase of as much as 4 percent.  Part of the 2015 sales drop is attributed to currency impacts and a decrease in fuel sales due to lower gas prices. Sales have also suffered from ongoing store closures, including its entire fleet of smaller, “Express” stores.

But, Walmart has acknowledged a shift in the way it runs the company. They’ve moved away from their previous focus on net sales and cutting operating expenses as a percentage of sales, and are now focused on making “strategic investments” to support the “long-term health of the company.”

What has been a mostly brick-and-mortar operation is morphing into one that meets the expectations and demands of consumers operating in an omni-channel marketplace. This can already be seen in its fast-growing app and its expanding grocery pick-up program.

While its first revenue decline should serve as a wake-up call, Walmart remains a massive retail force.

Supplier Survey Reveals Positive Outlook for Retail Sales

In a new survey conducted by Capital Business Credit, 75% of major retailers of soft goods such as clothing and accessories expect retail sales to grow by 4% or more for the spring and summer shopping season. If they do, they will outpace core GDP growth and provide a jolt to the economy.

According to the Global Retail Manufacturers and Importers Survey, a majority of those surveyed believe that 2016 will either be better (45.5%) or the same (38.6%) as 2015.

“While retail sales for January and February were lower than initially anticipated, this hasn't seemed to deter retail suppliers' confidence or business activity," said Andrew Tananbaum, executive chairman, CBC. "In fact, nearly 90% of importers and suppliers are reporting reorders for the spring/summer shopping season.”

The reorders mean that the major retail chains and individual stores are optimistic. Retailers have become increasingly reticent to stock shelves if they don’t think products will sell according to Tananbaum.

The survey results found that over 3/4 of retailers have increased their orders or stayed the same; approximately half indicated that they have increased their orders. And of those who increased their orders, 1/3 ordered 7% to 10% more, while almost 30% said that orders increased by more than 10%.

Impact of the Chinese Yuan

With so many U.S. retail goods produced in China, the devaluation of the yuan has been an important factor for importers and retailers to increase profitability while keeping prices low. Half of survey respondents are considering increasing their Chinese production due to the strong dollar vs. the yuan.

Just over a third (37%) believe that margins may increase due to the lower cost to produce goods in China, but the majority (56.7%) do not think this will translate into lower consumer prices.

"While the overall recovery from the great recession of 2008 has been sluggish, the low costs of goods produced in China has allowed the U.S. consumer to stretch their spending dollars and allowed retailers to keep costs down," Tananbaum concluded. "In our opinion, this is the first time since the recession that manufacturers, importers and other participants in the retail goods supply chain will have the opportunity to recover some of the margins they lost over the past decade.

Source: Retailing Today

FIRST QUARTER 2016 CONSUMER ECONOMIC NEWS: SPENDING IS SOFT BUT HOME SALES RISE

As the first quarter of the year comes to a close, consumer spending stayed soft, rising just 0.1% for the third consecutive month. Incomes have been rising faster than that rate, indicating that Americans seem to be saving rather than spending. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth also slowed. Consumer spending generates more than 2/3 of total US economic output. Economists are concerned but a recession is not being indicated yet since the markets stabilized and the job market appears to be on track.

On the home sales front, there is more optimistic news. Pending home sales jumped 3.5% in February, the highest level in 7 months. Pending sales offer insights into future sales activity. The Realtors’ is forecasting 5.4 million existing-home sales this year, an increase of 2.4% from 2015. The housing market in 2015 was the strongest since before the recession and 2016 seems stronger yet.

Source: Wall St. Journal

Dollar General Growth Continues with 1,900 New Stores by 2017

In an era when e-commerce is growing and chains like Kohl’s, Macy’s and Staples are closing stores, Dollar General is expanding. At it’s annual investor day last Thursday, the discount chain announced it will open 900 new stores this year and plans to open another 1,000 in 2017. Adding 1,900 new stores will bring Dollar General’s store count to over 14,000.

Last year was Dollar General’s 26^th straight year of same-store sales growth and they have added new stores consistently for the past 8 years, growing from 8,362 locations is 2008 to nearly 12,500 by the end of 2015.

In the late 2000’s, as the economy rebounded from the recession, deep discount retailers like Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar exploded in popularity as consumers sought discounted items at no-frills stores located close to home so they could save on gas. Consumer’s frugal spending habits have continued and Dollar General is targeting annual sales growth of 7% to 10%.

Source: Fortune.com

Taking the Guesswork Out Of Online Sizing

It’s a challenge all clothing retailers have to face: excessive returns based on poor fit. According to a 2015 report by The Retail Equation and backed by NRF data, “fit” is the stated reason for nearly 11% of all merchandise returns. The associated costs include processing, sorting, repackaging and remarketing the item, and they’re a headache every apparel retailer would like to avoid.

Now there is a tool that offers help to customers looking for a perfect fit, all while creating an informational bridge between consumers and clothing manufacturers. Fittery.com offers a tool for men that finds clothes that fit them across a wide selection of brands based on their body type, fit preferences and measurements. The site has been live since September and is well positioned for growth.

Upon visiting the site for the first time shoppers are asked for basic information such as weight, height and body silhouette, plus waist and collar measurements. The process also asks them to identify their fit preference through images rather than words.

“We’ve done a lot of research, and found that different people have different concepts of what a slim or a classic fit might be,” says CEO Catherine Iger. “Pictures, as opposed to words, result in greater accuracy.”

The customer’s information is matched to the precise sizes of garments available through Fittery.com such as Thomas Pink, J.Crew, Boden and Lands’ End. Customers are shown choices that are best for their body based on exact product dimensions in the Fittery.com database. Customers can also measure themselves with a tape measure while being coached with a short tutorial video. “Either way, the process is 96.3 percent accurate,” Iger says.

The sizing technology is only currently available for dress and casual men’s shirts.  Future plans include expansion into slacks, sport coats and more. Fittery.com also offers an array of accessory items, including ties, messenger bags and sunglasses, also through affiliated retailers.

Women’s clothing is planned for a future rollout. “We’re careful to expand our offerings slowly so that the data can be gathered completely and the algorithms can be adequately tested so we’re confident in their reliability,” Iger says.

Source: NRF.com

Warm Weather Expected to Boost Consumer Spending and Apparel Sales

Despite an expected snow storm in the mid-Atlantic States and New England, consumer spending and apparel sales should both rise as the weather improves, according to analytics firm Planalytics. In its weekly report, Planalytics said that warmer weather is resulting in “many consumers thinking and purchasing spring. The warming conditions during the Easter run-up period will help drive demand for seasonal apparel as well as live goods.” Looking ahead, the analytics firm said, “western locations can expect strong gains for both spring apparel and consumables.”

Last week, the warmer weather already had an impact on retail sales – but not in all regions. Chief economist of the Retail Economist LLC,  Michael Niemira said spring-like “weather continued to drive interest in spring clothing in the east over the past week, but cool and wet weather in the west curtained demand.” Easter sales are getting a slight boost due to the holiday falling early in the season this year.

Looking ahead, Planalytics said that businesses throughout North America can expect above normal temperatures in most markets over Easter weekend. “Sandals, short sleeve shirts, cold beverages and sun care will be in demand as temperatures rise above normal,” researchers said

Source: planalytics.com

Macy's CEO Thinks Amazon Threat is Overstated

Last year, Wall Street firm Cowen & Co. famously predicted that Macy’s would be be dethroned by Amazon.com as the top apparel retailer in the U.S. But Macy’s CEO Terry Lundgren believes that Macy’s nearly 800 stores offer a huge advantage over Amazon. He noted that shoppers typically order multiple sizes of the same piece of clothing, keep the one that fits, and send the rest back.

According to a Cowen research report published in July, Amazon’s apparel business was on pace to hit $16.34 billion for the year, compared to $22.2 billion for Macy’s in 2015. But as Amazon pushes further into fashion beyond basic clothing, it could get dinged by all that merchandise being sent back.

“They’re going to have an interesting challenge when they start getting all those returns coming back online,” said Lundgren. He added, “The large, large majority of online purchases which are returned in our case come back to stores because they’re so convenient. And so we at least have a shot at selling them something else.”

Despite closing 36 stores this year, Macy’s is now the fourth largest U.S. internet retailer according to eMarketer, with annual online sales in 2015 of about $5 billion. Their position as a leader in the online market is a result of years of multi-billion dollar investments in integrating its stores and its digital business. The ability to handle returns of online orders is key to generating traffic to stores.

Source: Fortune.com

NRF SAYS CONSUMERS PLANNING TO SPRING INTO RETAIL SPENDING ON ST. PATTY’S DAY AND EASTER

With two big spring holidays upon us in March, the National Retail Federation reports that consumer spending appears to be on the rise. The NRF conducted two consumer surveys that indicate that trend is coming. According to its annual St. Patrick’s Day Spending Survey, over 125 million Americans will spend $4.4 billion on today’s holiday. 56.5% of those celebrating will purchase food and beverages, 28% will buy apparel or accessories, 23.3% will buy decorations and 17.2% will buy candy.

According to the NRF Easter Spending Survey, consumers plan to shop at 13-year high levels. The holiday is expected to reach spending of $17.3 billion. Half of that spending will be on clothing, gifts and flowers. “Retailers are beginning one of their busiest times of year and are more than ready as consumers shop for Spring essentials, “NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.

58.4% of shoppers will head to discount stores, followed by 41.4% in department stores. Online shoppers grows to 21.4%, up from 18.8% last year.

Source: National Retail Federation

ULTA SHOWS HOW ATTRACTIVE THE BEAUTY MARKET CAN BE

Ulta Salon, a specialty beauty retailer, is expanding its store count across the U.S. while reporting a 12.5% same-store sales increase during the fourth quarter. There were several factors attributed to their performance. Ulta’s gross margins got a lift by their shift from coupons to more targeted offers. They also managed to boost traffic into the stores. They added 100 new stores in 2015, seeing net revenues increase 21% to reach $1.27 billion. With its plans to add 100 more stores in 2016, taking them to over 1,000 stores total, it will build on its success in small markets and downtown/urban locations.

The beauty segment is attractive to department store retailers, because shoppers make frequent repeat visits when they run out of a certain product. Several retailers, such as Kohl’s and Sephora-Inside-JC Penney’s, have specific plans to expand their beauty departments.

Accelerated Analytics’ has a broad base of beauty vendor customers, such as L’Oreal, LVMH, Parlux Fragrances, Anastasia Beverly Hills, Chanel, Coty, Estee Lauder and more. Learn about our beauty industry reporting solutions at http://www.acceleratedanalytics.com/beauty/

Source: CNBC

Sporting Goods Retailers Struggle With Declining Sales

It seems that sporting goods retailers are in a slump. Last week The Sports Authority filed for bankruptcy and said it will close nearly a third of it’s 450 stores over the next three months. It ha not yet been disclosed which stores will close. Bankruptcy has been looming since January when the retailer disclosed that it had missed a $20 million debt payment.  

Earlier this week, Performance Sports Group Ltd., one of the biggest makers of baseball bats and other sporting equipment slashed their 2016 fiscal year forecast. The company expects to report revenues of approximately $125 million, or 9% lower compared to the same quarter last year. Shares of Performance Sports fell 65% to about $4.00 in trading on Tuesday.

"The second half of fiscal 2016 has been impacted by adverse market conditions and related customer credit issues," said Kevin Davis, CEO, Performance Sports Group. "The baseball/softball market is experiencing an unexpected significant downturn in retail sales, including in our important bat category. This weakening of consumer demand, coupled with the chapter 11 filing by one of the largest U.S. national sporting goods retailers, is reducing our sales for baseball and softball products.”

Also this week, Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. reported weak holiday results, with both fourth quarter and full-year same-store sales declining. Despite the decline in profits, Dick’s announced ambitious store expansion plans in 2016 and points to the success of their e-commerce business. The company ended the year with e-commerce penetration at a record 15.7% of sales, compared to 14.4% in the fourth quarter of 2015.

“This is certainly a unique time in the industry. The competitive landscape is evolving, which is creating pressure for some and opportunities for others,” said Dick’s CEO Edward Stack.

OMNI-CHANNEL SWITCHEROO: ONLINE RETAILERS GET PHYSICAL WHILE RETAIL STORE STALWARTS SHRINK

Amazon.com opened its first brick-and-mortar store in Seattle in November, and announced plans to open another store in San Diego. Macy’s announced it is shutting down almost 40 stores this year. Kohl’s plans to follow suit and close 18 stores, stating its online sales increased 30% in the fourth quarter, causing their reevaluation of its store footprint. Similar announcements of closing stores were also made by Sears, JC Penney and The Gap, as 8% of total US retail sales are now online.

Companies that began their retail lives online, such as Athleta, Fabletics and Birchbox are now adding brick-and-mortar stores. They are moving into prime real estate that was once reserved for top-performing retail stores, such as Birchbox opening its first store in Manhattan.

Is this the new evolution of retail, blending the two worlds? Experts say the trend will continue to grow. The impact will be different in each retail category, such as electronics versus clothing. "For most products, consumers actually prefer to shop in store because they want to see and touch what they're buying," said Dave Parro, vice president of the retail technology practice at Walker Sands, a PR marketing firm. "But they also shop online regularly because of the convenience and range of products available."

The winners of the switcheroo? The consumer. Those who are omni-shoppers know which retail channel and retailer is best to fit their needs.

Source: Philly.com, WSJ