NRF REPORTS INCREASE IN RETAIL EMPLOYMENT

The NRF (National Retail Federation) commented on the Labor Department’s report that retail employment (excluding gasoline stations, automobiles and restaurants) was up 51,100 jobs in February. Compared with February 2015, retail jobs were up by 247,300. Apparel stores saw a significant gain of 11,100 jobs. The NRF noted that weather played a big part of the increase.

“Weather has a serious impact on the retail industry, and when cold winter weather finally made its appearance shoppers headed to stores and brought shopping patterns to a good level,” said National Retail Federation chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “This solid report shows that the consumer is confident and continuing to shop.”

Source: Retailing Today

A Decline in Consumer Spending Is Forecasted for March

According to data from Chain Store Guide’s Consumer Spending Report, the month of March is likely to see a slowdown in consumer spending. While current economic reports are varied, the unpredictable stock market and upcoming elections have likely created unease among consumers.

When polled on the state of the U.S. economy, nearly 30% of those asked would rate the economy as “Poor” compared to only about 25% the previous month.  The data did, however, reveal some positive trends as well.  Notably, 80% of consumers polled reported personal finances as either “excellent”, “good” or “fair”. And, all three of CSG’s indexes – US Spending Monitor, Restaurant Spending Monitor and Retail Spending Index – are close to their 12-month averages.

Source: Chain Store Guide

Source: Chain Store Guide

J.C. Penney Reports Strong Q4 Sales and Reveals “Penney Days” Promotion

Last Thursday, J.C. Penney announced impressive increases in same-store sales and earnings, as well as a new marketing campaign called Penney Days.

For the fourth quarter ending on January 30th, the retailer announced that same store sales grew 4.1% . “We are very pleased with our performance for the fourth quarter and full year. Our focus on private brands, omni-channel and revenue per customer is clearly resonating as we continue to win market share in a competitive environment," said Marvin R. Ellison, CEO. "We are also pleased that we delivered strong fourth quarter results while effectively managing our inventory, which finished the year up 2.6 %. I would like to thank our over 100,000 associates who embrace our strategy and come to work each day focused on driving sales and providing excellent customer service.”

They also announced a new promotional event called Penney Days. At different times throughout the year they will make limited number of some of their highest rated private brand items available for one cent. The new campaign will give J.C. Penney the opportunity to showcase the company’s assortment of private brands and it will give customers the opportunity to try them for just a penny.  J.C. Penney will promote Penney Days through television spots, weekly sales circulars and digital marketing. They will also launch a social media campaign reminding users of the power of a penny and will promote the hashtag "#SoWorthIt" with all elements of the campaign.

Economists Say Tide May Be Turning Toward Single-Family Homes

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that while apartment construction has been a bright spot in the recovery of the nation’s housing market over the last six years, economists say the tide might be turning away from apartments and toward single-family homes.

For the past six years, the construction of apartments and condos has grown at a faster rate than that of single-family homes. Last year U.S. builders began construction on 396,000 units in buildings with two units or more, the most in a year since 1988.  In contrast, single family home construction has remained below the historical 20-year average of about 1.05 million homes. Last year builders started just 714,600 homes.

But 2016 could be the year the trends reverse. Both the National Association of Home Builders and housing-research firm Metrostudy are forecasting significant growth in single family home starts this year. Their predictions of 19% growth and 14.6% growth respectively outpace their single-digit growth predictions for multi-family construction.

Six years of rapidly rising rents across the U.S. have driven prices to a point that is out of reach for many, far outpacing income growth. Chief economist at Metrostudy, Brad Hunter pointed out that “after six years of strong performance, the apartment market is poised for a breather. We’ve reached a point where we can’t continue to grow that sector.”

The NAHB made a similar prediction last year when they forecasted 26% growth for single-family construction and only 2% for multi-family. The two sectors grew at similar rates with single-family seeing 10.3% growth compared to 11.6% for multi-family in 2015.

US ECONOMY STARTS 2016 SLOW YET STEADY AS CONSUMER SPENDING GOES UP IN JANUARY

Consumer spending grew in January, showing an improvement in retail sales and home purchases. On Friday, the Commerce Department reported personal spending rose 0.5% in January from the prior month. Americans’ pretax earnings from salaries and investments increased at about the same pace. US consumer confidence dropped slightly in January but recovered slightly in February, a sign of slower but steady economic growth.

Reports Friday also revealed that gross domestic product advanced at 1%, higher than the estimate of 0.7%. Inflation still runs below the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.

Improvement in overall economic growth for the quarter ending January 30 was mainly due to the fact that companies pulled back on inventory less than originally expected. Economists have cautioned that first quarter growth may be slow as companies take longer to work through their well-replenished stock.

Source: The Wall St. Journal

MACY’S ANNOUNCES Q4 SALES DECLINED 5.2%; LOOKS FORWARD to 2016 EXPANSION

For the period ending January 30, 2016, Macy’s total sales declined 5.2% to $8.87 billion. Same-store sales fell 4.3%, slightly less than the 4.7% decrease analysts were expecting. Macy’s did announce it had another year of double-digit growth in its online business, attributed to high increases in mobile traffic and conversions.  In looking back on the year, chairman and CEO, Terry J. Lundgren, pointed out many expansion initiatives. “We expanded our online capacity with a new state-of-the-art fulfillment center in Tulsa, Oklahoma,” he said. “We announced licensed department arrangements with companies including LensCrafters, Men’s Wearhouse and Best Buy to add new categories to the Macy’s store assortment. We completed the acquisition of Bluemercury, which added capabilities to our signature beauty business. We developed and launched Macy’s Backstage, which will be piloted as an in-store concept this spring. And we began initial testing of online selling in China in a new joint venture with a Hong Kong-based partner.” Macy’s has $400 million of planned cost savings and will have more conservative inventory planning in 2016 to improve its operating margins. It does expect to see a 1% comp-stores decline in 2016.

Source: Chain Store Age

DILLARD’S SALES AND PROFITS DROP IN Q4 2015

Dillard’s announced a 35.6% drop in fourth quarter profit. For the period ending January 30, revenue was $2.07 billion for the fourth quarter, down from $2.1 billion a year ago. Same store sales declined 2%. In 2015, Dillard’s opened three new stores in Murray, UT, Slidell, LA and Cincinnati, OH. They also closed two clearance stores. The Southern retailer also announced the upcoming closure of their Aiken, SC location in Q1 of this year. As of now, Dillard’s operated 273 stores and 24 clearance centers over 29 states.

"The fourth quarter was difficult. As sales came in less than planned, we worked hard to control our inventory during an unusually competitive environment," said Dillard’s CEO William T. Dillard II. "Sales were particularly weak on the Southern border and in the energy producing regions. Higher markdowns affected gross margin, but we did the right thing as we move on to 2016.”

Source: Retailing Today

WARM WEATHER HELPS HOME DEPOT SALES RISE ALMOST 10% IN 4TH QUARTER, AS HOME PRICES INCREASE AND DEMAND FOR NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION STARTS 2016 WITH SLOW GROWTH

The Home Depot’s fourth-quarter sales included an 8.9% sales increase in US stores that have been open for at least one year. This is despite the challenges facing the rest of the retail industry. Sales were strong the entire quarter, but warm weather in December brought in a sales spike – Home Depot attributes $100 million in sales growth to the milder weather. High sales were seen for power washers and pressure-treated lumber by homeowners building decks.

Home prices also rose in December, showing the strongest gains since July 2014. The Home Price Index showed a rise of 5.2% in the 12 months ending in December, versus a 5.2% in November. The national median sale price for a home in December was $213,800, 8.2% from the previous year. There is a limited inventory of homes for sale, and demand for new homes is likely to drive more new construction and help keep a ceiling on the rising home prices, although January 2016 was a slow start for new home construction for the year.

Accelerated Analytics helps Home Depot vendors, such as WM Barr, Hillman Group, Alexandria Molding, and CPG Building Products to manage their sales and inventory data to drive results. Our vendors use our analytical measures, such as sell through, inventory shortages, out of stocks, weeks of supply and consumer purchasing trends, to take quick actions to ensure they are optimizing inventory and growing sales.

Source: Wall St. Journal

AMAZON ANNOUNCING INCREASED SHIPPING FEES AND A PRIVATE LABEL APPAREL LINE MAY BE ON THE WAY

Big changes are being announced at Amazon.com. Based on shipping price increases imposed by UPS and FedEx late last year, Amazon announced its threshold for free shipping is increasing by 40%, to $49 in orders. However, Amazon is not raising the threshold with an interest in shipping revenue, but instead to incent more customers to become members of Amazon Prime. Amazon Prime members always receive free shipping on all orders, but membership costs $99 per year. These customer spend on average double what Amazon’s other customers spend, and absorbing shipping costs will be nothing to them compared to the billions of dollars in sales the company may gain.

Amazon is also hiring heavily to staff up its Amazon Fashion Private Label unit, which could take on fast-fashion chains to sellers of basic apparel. An analyst at Women’s Wear Daily estimates Amazon could launch a private label apparel brand by early 2017. Amazon can undercut prices that other fashion retailers have at brick and mortar stores, and its ability to collect customer data can help them to give customers exactly what they want.

Many Accelerated Analytics’ vendors utilize our POS reporting and analysis tools to manage their Amazon sales and inventory. These vendors sell online with the retail giant in addition to selling at department store brick and mortar stores and online sites. Being able to compare sales trends between them is a key tool to help them win at retail and ensure customers are able to access the products they want to buy regardless of which retailer they are shopping with.

Sources: Wall St. Journal, New York Business Journal

NRF SAYS MILLENNIALS WILL SAVE THEIR TAX REFUNDS INSTEAD OF SPLURGING ON RETAIL

Retailers have depended on American’s using their IRS tax refund checks to boost February and March sales. However, according to a survey conducted by the National Retail Federation (NRF), more than half of those expecting a refund are planning to save their money instead of spend it. This is the highest level since the NRF has begun conducting the survey.

Millennials, ages 18 to 24, show 57.3% planning to save and 27.4% planning to spend their refunds on everyday purchases like gas or groceries. In the 25 to 34 year old bracket, 52.3% plan to save and 45% plan to repay debt.

In addition to saving, 22.4% of Americans will save their refunds while 11.4% will plan a vacation. “Consumers are building their spending power and boosting their confidence as they set aside their checks from Uncle Sam,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Americans this year see refund season as a time to improve their financial health by using their refunds to get ahead on savings goals and plan for bigger purchases in the future. Money saved is money waiting to be spent.”

As refund checks start to get into Amercan’s hands, it will remain to be seen if this holds true for future retail spending and whether they will actually save the money or decide to shop instead.

Source: Chain Store Age

Calculating Sell-Thru

Sell through (or sell-thru) is a very useful metric for vendors to use in evaluating item performance, because it provides a composite measure of sales and inventory. But like many business measures, there is more than one method of calculating sell through.

The most common calculation is: Sell Thru % = Units Sold / (Units On-Hand + Units Sold). Sell thru is typically evaluated on a daily basis for fast moving products or weekly for slower moving or replenishment based products.  A higher value is better, indicating your sales velocity is good and your inventory is appropriately forecasted. If sell thru is low, this indicates either poor sales or too much inventory. In most cases, sell-thru for an item is compared in recent periods like current week and last week, as well as in aggregate across several months or even a year.

When evaluating sell-thru, it is also useful to group together products which have been selling for a similar period of time and/or which are sold into the similar store types. For example, comparing sell-thru for a product with 5 weeks of selling activity against a product with 20 weeks of selling activity most likely will not produce a useful comparison. In the same way, comparing sell-thru for a product in a group of stores in a highly affluent area is not likely to compare favorably to a group of stores with a low income level.

Most retail buyers have a set sell-thru percentage they use to judge vendors based on product category or department.  It is important for vendors to discuss the sell-thru expectations with the buyer in order to align with those objectives.

For reference, we've compiled sell-thru percentage data that you can use as a benchmark. The complete infographic includes the sell-thru percentage for eight retail categories each at 8, 13, 26 and 52 weeks. To download the complete infographic, simply complete the form below and we will e-mail you the link to download it.

Leading Solution for DIY POS Retail Reporting

At Accelerated Analytics, we work extensively with The Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Wal-Mart data and we know how to integrate your item catalog, shipping data, plan o gram, and other key files for a comprehensive reporting solution.  With our services, you'll have more timely reporting in a consistent format available to any user with an internet connection, iPad, or iPhone.  Your analysts will be able to focus on the business instead of making spreadsheets. Plus you will have store / SKU level reporting.  Talk about powerful!

NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION DROPS AGAIN WITH SLOW START IN 2016 – WILL HOME DEPOT EARNINGS BE AFFECTED?

Showing the lowest rate since October, new housing starts fell 3.8% in January from a month earlier. U.S. home builders are reporting a positive outlook as spring approaches, citing solid fundamentals for housing demand, such as job gains and low mortgage rates. Demand for housing has been strong over the past year but growth has been slow, with housing starts just 1.8% higher than January 2015.

Home builders are reporting shortages of land and labor, leading to project delays and higher construction prices, which lowers demand for new homes. However, new home sales in December were up 9.9% from a year earlier. “The weak showing in construction activity is broadly consistent with the recent souring in home builders’ sentiment, and when combined with the downdrift in permit approvals it suggests some slowdown in the months ahead,” said Millan Mulraine, economist at TD Securities USA, in a note to clients.

The Home Depot performed very well in 2015, giving investors better returns than competitor Lowe’s. The Home Depot opened 2016 with a large pullback due to fears about the general economy and the housing market in particular. An anticipated rise in mortgage rates has not happened and Home Depot is gearing up for spring, its busiest period of the year. The company will hire more than 80,000 workers for its 2,000 stores and 75 distribution facilities. The Home Depot’s domestic business has kept it in the lead, but with Lowe’s announcement of its acquisition of Canadian home-improvement chain Rona, international expansion could be important to future growth.

Source: WSJ

The Leading Beauty Industry Solution for Retail POS Reporting

NORDSTOM IS RANKED FAVORITE RETAILER IN RECENT SURVEY

A survey of over 5,700 consumers found that Nordstrom ranked first among retailers in customer satisfaction. It specifically ranked highest scores for atmosphere, checkout speed and finding the correct size/product the customer was looking for. One in five customers surveyed indicated they were dissatisfied in general with their fashion retail experience across all retailers. 40% of these customers indicated that the sales experience was very important to them, and that less than half of them were approached by a sales associate, which was key to their satisfaction. Nordstrom’s sales associates assisted customers the most and received the highest satisfaction scores.

Coming in behind Nordstrom were Marshalls, H&M, Ross, Kohl’s and Macy’s.

With merchandise selection and ease of finding items and size selection the top of customers’ needs, retailers and vendors recognize the importance of partnering to share point of sale and inventory data in order to optimize store assortments. Many vendors, such as Brahmin Leather, Anastasia Beaute and The Sak, utilize Accelerated Analytics to monitor and act on inventory levels and customer buying patterns in Nordstrom and other retailers to maximize their effectiveness in this area.

Source: Chain Store Age

Economic Mixed Messages

By Chad Symens

This article recently caught my attention and the wheels started turning: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/11/is-the-us-economy-running-out-of-gas.html

The current economic situation is confusing to the casual observer.  On the one hand, President Obama regularly speaks about the US economy being the strongest and most resilient economy in the world, and yet articles like this create doubt in the minds of the average observer.  Gas prices are at historic lows, and the unemployment rate is back down to pre-recession levels.  Yet polls consistently show that Americans are unhappy with the the direction of the economy and the leading presidential candidates are outsiders running campaigns against the "establishment".  Q4 earning and full year earnings are also confusing. Home improvement stores are doing very well, but department stores and large mass merchants are struggling.  Today the Federal Reserve sent conflicting messages about the economy being strong, and the possibility of a recession is still out there.  

What are we supposed to make of all this?  

I'm no economist but my observation is the average American consumers are pulling back on discretionary spending and focusing on paying down debt and putting some extra money into their savings.  Home improvement retail sales clearly show consumers are investing into their homes and taking the savings at the gas pump and putting it into their homes or their savings accounts. Depending on your point of view this can be both positive and negative considering US consumers have historically had higher levels of debt than other countries. But the debt level of the US consumer is rapidly decreasing. Does the generally conservative approach to finances mean consumers, who drive the economy, are pulling back and won't help to sustain the economic recovery?  

Business at Accelerated Analytics has been expanding exponentially in the last 90 days. We are seeing companies across multiple retail channels invest into analytics and reporting because they understand that to win at retail they have to be smarter and faster than their competition.  Those businesses are investing into productivity and technology, not pulling back.  These businesses are small, medium, and large. They represent a good cross section of the economic landscape and watching them invest makes me optimistic.  I believe the economy is going through a routine cycle of smart and successful companies growing and investing and conservative companies that only risk and fear pulling back.  To me it seems to be a very Darwinian cycle where the smartest and strongest will thrive and the weak will struggle and possibly fail.  

I'm bullish on the economy's prospects.  What do you think?

NRF THINKS 2016 WILL BE A HAPPY NEW YEAR FOR RETAIL

The NRF forecasts a 3.1% increase in retail sales growth in 2016, which will exceed the 10 year industry average of 2.7%. The National Retail Federation also forecasts ecommerce growth to be between 6-9%.

The NRF makes this forecast based on assumptions on employment gains. It believes that prospects for consumer spending are going to be higher as it expects a continued growth in the labor market. 

“Wage stagnation is easing, jobs are being created and consumer confidence remains steady, so despite the headwinds our economy faces from international developments, particularly in China, we think 2016 will be favorable for growth in the retail industry,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.

The NRF’s chief economist indicated that with lower gas prices creating more discretionary income, more jobs, and with retailers continuing to find ways to compete and succeed in a cost-conscious environment, 2016 should be a good growth year for retail.

Source: Chain Store Age

Game Changer for the Home Improvement Market?

by Chad Symens

Lowe’s acquisition of Rona could be game changer for the home improvement market. Home Depot has 2,273 stores with 182 located in Canada. Before the Rona acquisition, Lowes had 1,840 stores including Orchard Supply stores. The Rona acquisition will add 496 stores to Lowe’s portfolio which means that once it's finalized, Lowe’s will have 2,336 stores compared to Home Depot’s 2,273.

Nearly half (238) of the Rona stores are in Quebec which represents nearly 25% of the entire Canadian home improvement market; a market where Lowe’s does not currently operate any stores. The Canadian home improvement market is estimated at over C$45 billion and is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 3.9% from 2014 to 2018.  Lowe’s will be very well positioned to capture an oversized share of the growth compared to Home Depot with their 182 Canadian stores. In 2015, Home Depot acquired Interline Brands as a strategy to expand the pro division sales.  It will be interesting to see which strategy – investing in the pro business versus acquiring more physical store space - will turn out to be the better strategy.

Five Trends That Point to a New Era for Retail

In a new report titled “How We Shop Now: What’s Next?,” Westfield London has unveiled five key trends that they believe will shape the retail industry of tomorrow. Combined, the trends paint a picture of what the store of the future is likely to look like, and the report reveals that customers will be looking for richer shopping experiences and will expect physical retailers to go beyond the transaction. The five key trends identified are:

Pay as You Go Retail: People are increasingly interested in retailers adopting the “sharing economy” made popular by companies like Uber and Airbnb. The trend is strongest among Millennials, and exercise equipment, cars, consumer electronics, bikes and clothing top the list of items people want to rent.

Classroom Retail: Stores are not just for shopping anymore. Increasingly, shoppers view retail stores as classrooms where they can learn new skills and build their social networks. Examples include health and fitness sessions at the local sporting goods store and cooking classes at a home goods store.

Lifestyle Loyalty: There is a new consumer demand for loyalty programs that reward good lifestyle choices rather than just monetary transactions. As many as one fifth of UK consumers find lifestyle rewards appealing and would like to be rewarded for recycling, exercising, spending time with family, getting enough sleep and volunteering.

Enhanced Assistance: Consumers are interested in using new technologies, such as virtual reality, to bring in-store products closer to their everyday lives. 41% of people in the UK would like to use technology to experience how products would look in their homes and 33% would like to use technology to see how clothes would look on them.

Inside-out Retail: A sensory retail experience is becoming increasingly important to consumers. All five senses were deemed to enhance the shopper experience with vision and touch coming out on top.

Download the full report here.

Lowes to Acquire Canadian Chain Rona

On Wednesday, home improvement retailer Lowe’s made a $2.3 billion bid for Quebec-based home-improvement chain Rona. The deal comes 4 years after an attempted hostile acquisition that faced opposition from major political parties. Initial indications point to a friendly deal this time around with approval from the Rona board of directors.

“One of the big differences between this and last time is obviously this time we have the unanimous approval and support of the board of directors of Rona as well as the management team” said Robert A. Niblock, Lowe’s chairman, president and chief executive. “We’re in a much better place than we were in 2012.”

Under the terms of the deal Lowes is expected to acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Rona for C$24 per share in cash, and all of the issued and outstanding preferred shares of RONA for C$20 per share in cash. The total transaction value is C$3.2 billion (2.3 billion in US dollars).

"We believe the time is right to take the next step in the evolution of the RONA family. The team at Lowe’s has presented us with an excellent plan that enables our company to maintain its brand power while at the same time leveraging Lowe’s global presence to build upon and expand our reach. With commitments made by Lowe’s to our employees, potential new markets for Canadian manufacturers and product offerings for our independent dealers, this transaction presents the ideal opportunity for the continued growth of our company while delivering an attractive premium for our shareholders,” said RONA’s Chairman, Robert Chevrier.

Lowe’s has identified over C$1 billion of opportunities to further increase revenue and operating profitability in Canada. These include: expanding customer reach and serving a new portion of the market by applying Lowe’s expertise in certain product categories, such as appliances; enhancing customer relevance, utilizing Lowe’s strengths as a leading omni-channel home improvement company and drawing on its customer experience design capabilities; and driving increased profitability in Canada by leveraging shared supplier relationships and enhanced scale, as well as Lowe’s private label capabilities, in addition to eliminating RONA’s public company costs. Given these opportunities, Lowe’s believes there is potential to double operating profitability in Canada over five years.

"The transaction is expected to accelerate Lowe’s growth strategy by significantly expanding our presence in the Canadian market through the addition of RONA’s attractive business and excellent store locations across the country," added Niblock.  "Importantly, the transaction also provides Lowe’s with entry into Quebec, where RONA is the market leader and we have no presence.